The Utility of Force

Just about every military and policy watcher out there acknowledges that the world changed after 1945. General Sir Rupert Smith's analysis is brilliant in its simplicity and candor. Here he is during a Reuters interview explaining his assessment which is also the basis of his book, "The Utility of Force."

October 31st Morning Readbook

Afghan women walk past an election poster for Abdullah Abdullah in Kabul. Abdullah was poised Saturday to boycott Afghanistan's run-off presidential election unless incumbent Hamid Karzai has a last minute change of heart and bows to a series of demands from his rival
(AFP/File/Shah Marai)

Sources: Abdullah to pull out of Afghan runoff
Afghan presidential challenger Abdullah Abdullah plans to boycott next week's runoff against incumbent Hamid Karzai following a breakdown in talks on how to fix the country's electoral crisis, two people familiar with the discussions said.


Afghan vote in the balance, Abdullah cancels trip
Afghan President Hamid Karzai's election rival Abdullah Abdullah cancelled a planned trip to India on Saturday, his advisers said, heightening speculation he would pull out of next week's disputed run-off vote.


After 2 Years, a Sign of a 9/11 Suspect
Mr. Bahaji was part of the Hamburg cell of Al Qaeda, a tightly knit group of young Arab men who met in Germany in the mid- to late 1990s under the leadership of Mohamed Atta, who eventually became the central planner of the 9/11 attacks.


Pakistan not safe unless Qaeda disposed of: Hillary
As rescue workers searched for more bodies in the wreckage of one of the country’s biggest bomb attacks in Peshawar on Wednesday, visiting US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Pakistan would never escape terror without disposing of Al Qaeda.


Iraq: US military contractor burns recyclables, violating contract
KBR was contracted to recycle cafeteria waste at Forward Operating Base Warhorse. Such spotty accountability is coming under new scrutiny; an Oct. 30 report reveals that transactions worth $10.7 billion are being audited.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

Inside Iraq - Nouri al-Maliki's future

What will the future hold in light of the upcoming elections amidst the recent wave of violence in Iraq?

Weekend Reading

I am keeping it simple this weekend since I have no intention of "working" on Halloween. Here is what's on tap for this weekend:

RAND: The Phoenix Program and Contemporary Counterinsurgency

I've been fascinated with the Phoenix Program since purchasing Mark Moyar's book "Phoenix and the Birds of Prey." What sold me on reading this RAND report was co=author Austin Long's incredibly detailed CT strategy for Afghanistan over at Foreign Policy.

Iraq: Strategic Reconciliation, Targeting, and Key Leader Engagement

Say the words "Force Strategic Engagement Cell" in Iraq and you will get some rough looks from grunts and others. The concept is brilliant on paper but the group currently operating may have outlived its usefulness. The U.S. has its hands tied thanks to the security treaty implemented earlier this year. U.S. military members acting like diplomats, holding no authority, and meeting with insurgents just might send the wrong message to the Iraqi government. Prime Minister Maliki nearly blew a gasket earlier this year where according to the NY Times:

Iraq’s government said Thursday that it was demanding explanations from the United States and Turkey about a protocol signed this year between an American official and a representative of a group of Iraqi Sunni insurgents in Istanbul as a precursor to negotiations between the two sides.

The Iraqi government said in a statement that the protocol amounts to “an interference in Iraq’s internal political affairs” and that it was expecting “clear explanations” from American and Turkish officials at the embassies in Baghdad.

Apparently that was not the first time this year U.S. reconciliation efforts stepped on the Iraqi government's toes.

On April 18, American and British officials from a secretive unit called the Force Strategic Engagement Cell flew to Jordan to try to persuade one of Saddam Hussein’s top generals — the commander of the final defense of Baghdad in 2003 — to return home to resume efforts to make peace with the new Iraq.

But the Iraqi commander, Lt. Gen. Raad Majid al-Hamdani, rebuffed them.

After a year of halting talks mediated by the Americans, he said, he concluded that Iraq’s leader, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, simply was not interested in reconciliation.

I am looking forward to the Strategic Studies Institute read since the FSEC model will likely be recreated in Afghanistan; hopefully by those with more than a few months background. Conventional forces have the bad habit of prioritizing filling billets over finding quality personnel. I have deep concerns over conventional forces handling a mission so critical to counterinsurgency. As proven by events noted above from the past several months, the FSEC model has the potential to do more harm than good.

New SIGIR Report Out

An Iraqi weeps as he walks away from the site of a suicide bombing in Baghdad on October 25. Baghdad's governor has blamed negligence or even collusion by the security forces for devastating twin suicide bombings that killed around 100 people in the heart of the capital.(AFP/Ahmad al-Rubaye)

The October 2009 Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction Report has been released. I was looking forward to this release since we have been hearing mostly cheerleading from the theater. Unfortunately the report did not meet expectations. The entire U.S. government is shifting most of its effort and focus from Iraq to Afghanistan. Since this process is underway, nobody wants to be the one to reverse the movement. Tribal Sheikhs we have "abandoned" along with Sons of Iraq we have left out in the cold are the ones that were trying to warn us of al Qaeda in Iraq's pending comeback. Four building attacks in Baghdad later and the U.S. still calls it "mixed" results in security.

Highlights:

Security Concerns Persist
The security situation remains mixed. This August, at least 456 people were killed in Iraq—the highest number of deaths from violence in 13 months. But in September, violent deaths dropped by more than half. October brought mass-casualty bombings to two provinces that had been relatively peaceful during 2008 and 2009: Kerbala and Anbar.

Violence Trending Down Overall
Notwithstanding the recent bombings, overall attacks have decreased 85% during the past 2 years, from 4,064 in August 2007 to 594 in August 2009. Further, there were only 19 ethnosectarian attacks this Ramadan, down a remarkable 98% from Ramadan 2006.3 Figure 1.2 charts the approximate number of Iraqi casualties by day from July 1, 2009, to October 20, 2009, noting some of the most significant security incidents that occurred over this 112-day span.

Internal Divisions Persist
In recent congressional testimony, MNF-I Commanding General Raymond Odierno noted that violent groups continue to try to exploit Iraq’s internal political tensions, especially in the northern regions. In an eff ort to ameliorate these tensions, MNF-I announced that it is discussing with the GOI and KRG the possibility of temporarily deploying U.S. forces to northern Iraq. These troops would operate alongside the ISF
and the Kurdish Peshmerga in the disputed territories along the internal Iraq-KRG boundary. According to MNF-I, joint patrols would begin in Ninewa province and then expand to areas around the city of Kirkuk.

Evolution of U.S. Military Presence
This quarter, U.S. troop redeployments continued pursuant to the schedule articulated by the President in February 2009. However, the Secretary of Defense stated that this schedule could be accelerated if conditions on the ground remain relatively stable. As of late September 2009, the United States had 11 Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) in Iraq (about 124,000 troops)—down from 14 BCTs (more than 143,500 troops) in January 2009.

ISF Manages Security
Iraqi forces are responsible for security operations across the country. As of October 1, 2009, the ISF numbers approximately 663,000 personnel, including 245,000 soldiers and more than 400,000 police. In July and August, the ISF successfully managed security for two mass Shia pilgrimages. However, Iraq’s Army and police forces continue to rely on U.S. forces for support in training, logistics, air operations, and intelligence.

Obviously putting a positive spin on a negative story. The analysis is severely metrics heavy creating a false sense of progress. Attacks intended on producing mass casualties are down. If the underlying motives for violence remain then this is indicative of a change in tactics, not success in security.

You can download the full report here.

Bigger Impact on al Qaeda: AF-COIN or PAK-COIN?

Seized photos and passports recovered during military operations against Taliban militants are displayed on a table at Sherwangi Tor village in South Waziristan, during a trip organized by the army October 29, 2009. — Reuters

We are nearly a year into the population-centric COIN strategy in Afghanistan. Last month when the Afghanistan strategy debate was essentially occurring in the media, the public learned two interesting opinions from those involved in decision making. The first was from General McChrystal.

"I do not see indications of a large al-Qaida presence in Afghanistan now," McChrystal told reporters at the Dutch Defense Ministry, where he met military officials.

But he warned that Osama bin Laden's network still maintains contact with insurgents and seeks to use areas of Afghanistan they control as bases.

"I do believe that al-Qaida intends to retain those relationships because they believe it is symbiotic ... where the Taliban has success, that provides a sanctuary from which al-Qaida can operate transnationally," he added.

Back in September, President Obama reiterated this sentiment.

The fight in Afghanistan must be narrowed to its original intent of stamping out al-Qaeda and hunting down Osama bin Laden, President Barack Obama said today.

“We’re there because al-Qaeda killed 3,000 Americans and we cannot allow extremists who want to do violence to the United States to be able to operate with impunity,” Obama said this morning on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos.

Again, finalization of an Afghanistan strategy is awaiting the results of a run-off between the U.S.-backed ballot stuffer Hamid Karzai and the U.S.-backed former Northern Alliance leader Abdullah Abdullah. The run-off will determine who will become the mayor of Kabul.



Al Qaeda has been in Pakistan since the now-infamous Tora Bora escape in December of 2001. The Pakistani COIN operations in South Waziristan are finding trails leading to the remaining members of the Hamburg Cell.

In November 2001, Pakistan’s prestigious Herald magazine, in an investigative story, had given a detailed account of how Said Bahaji along with two of his accomplices, had arrived and stayed in Karachi shortly before the dastardly 9/11 attack and how they had managed to slip out of the country, with at least two of them crossing into Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden had his base under the Taliban’s protection.

The detailed report in the magazine said that on arrival at the Karachi airport the three had identified themselves as Abdellah Hosayni, a Belgian citizen of Algerian dissent, Ammar Moula of Morrocan origin but travelling on a French passport, and German national Said Bahaji. In a normal hustle bustle at the airport, no one noticed that all three got into the same taxi. They then headed for a hotel which none of them had mentioned in the disembarkation card submitted with the Pakistani immigration authorities.

Here is some footage of Ramzi bin al Shibh, Marwan al Shehhi, Ziad Jarrah, at the wedding of Said Bahaji taken from a History Channel special on the Hamburg Cell.




Getting this close to al Qaeda members tied to 9/11 is something we have not done in Afghanistan for years. If our ultimate strategy is stated as the destruction of the al Qaeda network, then half hearted attempts at nation building in Afghanistan is not the way to go. Operations by, with, and through our Pakistani "partners" has consistently lead to counterterrorism successes, from the captures of Ramzi bin al Shibh to 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

Here is some footage from the Pakistani frontlines.

October 30th Morning Readbook

9/11 passport 'found in Pakistan'
Pakistan's army says it has found in South Waziristan the passport of a man linked to two hijackers involved in the 11 September 2001 attacks in the US. The passport of Said Bahaji, a German of Moroccan origin, was among weapons, documents and jihadi literature seized by troops in the conflict zone.


Al Qaeda sleeper agent gets 8 years, not 15 as prosecutors had sought
Ali Marri gets a lighter sentence in consideration of 'very severe' conditions under which he was kept during the almost six years he was held without charges in a U.S. Navy brig in South Carolina.


Clinton Meets Pakistan Tribal Chiefs After Urging Al-Qaeda Exit
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met tribal leaders from northwestern Pakistan, whose homeland is at the center of an army assault on Taliban militants, a day after she urged Pakistan to dislodge al-Qaeda from the region.


Afghan panel overrides warnings
Rejecting advice from U.N. officials, Afghanistan's election commission announced Thursday that it would open more than 6,300 polling centers for the upcoming runoff vote, far more than international experts here say can be adequately protected and monitored.


Iraq arrests security officials over Baghdad blast
Iraq announced the arrests of dozens of military and security personnel on Thursday over Baghdad suicide bombings that killed 155 people, trying to calm public outrage at the government's apparent inability to protect its people ahead of January elections and the pending U.S. troop withdrawal.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

FBI vs. Terrorist Shootout in Detroit!

FBI kills one terrorist in gunfire exchange. Terrorist kill one police dog.

United States Attorney Terrence Berg, Eastern District of Michigan, Andrew G. Arena, Special Agent in Charge (SAC), Federal Bureau of Investigation, (FBI), Detroit, Michigan, and Police Chief Warren Evans, Detroit Police Department (DPD), Detroit, Michigan announced a federal complaint was unsealed today charging Luqman Ameen Abdullah, a.k.a.Christopher Thomas, and 10 others with conspiracy to commit several federal crimes, including theft from interstate shipments, mail fraud to obtain the proceeds of arson, illegal possession and sale of firearms, and tampering with motor vehicle identification numbers. The eleven defendants are members of a group that is alleged to have engaged in violent activity over a period of many years, and known to be armed.

In light of the information that the charged individuals were believed to be armed and dangerous, special safeguards were employed by law enforcement to secure the arrests without confrontation. During the arrests today, the suspects were ordered to surrender. At one location, four suspects surrendered and were arrested without incident. Luqman Ameen Abdullah did not surrender and fired his weapon. An exchange of gun fire followed and Abdullah was killed. An FBI canine was also killed during the exchange.

Read the full Justice Department press release here.

Green Zone - The Movie?

"Inspired by" Imperial Life in the Emerald City by Rajiv Chandrasekaran. Based upon the trailer it looks like location will be the only similarity between the book and the movie just as we saw with Syriana. Syriana was "inspired by" a single chapter from See No Evil by Robert Baer. The movie does not come out until next March.

October 29th Morning Readbook

President Barack Obama (C) participates in the dignified transfer of U.S. Army Sgt. Dale R. Griffin at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, October 29, 2009. Griffin is one of 18 U.S. personnel who died Monday in Afghanistan and returned to the U.S. on board an Air Force C-17 military transport plane. REUTERS/Jim Young

Obama seeks study on local leaders for troop decision
President Obama has asked senior officials for a province-by-province analysis of Afghanistan to determine which regions are being managed effectively by local leaders and which require international help, information that his advisers say will guide his decision on how many additional U.S. troops to send to the battle.


Pakistan bomb toll hits 105 during Clinton visit
Northwest Pakistan plunged into mourning on Thursday after one of the bloodiest attacks in the nation killed 105 people, eclipsing a peace mission by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.


For Every Iraqi Party, an Army of Its Own
SUNDAY’S coordinated suicide bombings in Baghdad, which killed more than 150 people, were a brutal reminder of how far Iraq still has to go in terms of security. While things are far better than a few years ago, one huge task remains: getting the public to trust the Iraqi security forces.


Analysis: Iraq not ready to face al Qaeda
The bombs that ripped through Baghdad on Sunday immediately brought more bloodshed -- and bode only of the promise of more to come.


Pervasive Corruption Rattles Iraq’s Fragile State
As Iraqi officials work to assign blame for the deadly attacks on the heart of the government on Sunday, concern is rising that a greater security threat may come from within the system in the form of corruption, from the top leadership of ministries down to soldiers who man checkpoints.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

October 28th Morning Readbook

Iraq's last chapter is still not written
A rise in attacks is designed not only to disrupt elections but also to dismantle the state – the US may yet have to delay withdrawal


The Long War: The US and al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda is on the ropes. Driven out of Afghanistan and hunted in Pakistan, it has no place left to hide. Some, like General James L. Jones, the national security adviser to Barack Obama, the US president, say there are only 100 or so al-Qaeda operatives left in Afghanistan.


Recent major attacks in Afghanistan's capital
A look at recent major attacks in Afghanistan's capital:


Car bomb kills 57 in Pakistan's Peshawar city
A car bomb tore through a crowded market in northwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, killing 57 people hours after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton arrived in the country to show American support for its campaign against Islamist militants.


Joint Communiqué of FMs of China, Russia and India at Bangalore meeting
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Indian Minister of External Affairs S.M. Krishna signed on Tuesday a Joint Communiqué after holding the 9th meeting of foreign ministers of the three countries.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

Critics Too Lazy to Google "COIN"

A good friend of mine sent me an AP article that nearly sent me through the roof. It is one thing to criticize our current policy or lack of one from a strategic alternative. It is another to sound like angst-ridden teenager whining on Twitter.

There are already more than 100,000 international troops in Afghanistan working with 200,000 Afghan security forces and police. It adds up to a 12-1 numerical advantage over Taliban rebels, but it hasn't led to anything close to victory.

Now, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan is asking for tens of thousands more troops to stem the escalating insurgency, raising the question of how many more troops it would take to succeed.

Let's start with the basics.

First, an insurgency is not conventional warfare. The Taliban do not march into an open field and fight U.S. and NATO tanks since they know they cannot match firepower. Instead they resort to guerrilla tactics. The author would have known this had he visited the Wikipedia page on insurgency.

Something else the author should have googled was the nearly-three year old Counterinsurgency Manual FM 3-24. Section 1-67 explains exactly why GEN McChrystal requested more troops.

No force level guarantees victory for either side. During previous conflicts, planners assumed that combatants required a 10 or 15 to 1 advantage over insurgents to win. However, no predetermined, fixed ratio of friendly troops to enemy combatants ensures success in COIN. The conditions of the operational environment and the approaches insurgents use vary too widely. A better force requirement gauge is troop density, the ratio of security forces (including the host nation’s military and police forces as well as foreign counterinsurgents) to inhabitants. Most density recommendations fall within a range of 20 to 25 counterinsurgents for every 1000 residents in an AO. Twenty counter-insurgents per 1000 residents is often considered the minimum troop density required for effective COIN operations; however as with any fixed ratio, such calculations remain very dependent upon the situation.

Next time AP wants to inject personal opinion into the news, I would recommend they do their homework first. A few google searches can save a writer's credibility.

October 27th Morning Readbook

Al-Qaida claims responsibility for Baghdad suicide bombings
The al-Qaida umbrella group in Iraq has claimed responsibility for Sunday's double suicide bombing in Baghdad in which at least 155 people were killed.


In Pakistan, Fear and Uncertainty for New Wave of Refugees
Under a blistering sun, the tribesmen queue impatiently for attention. Sweat drips from their heads as they attempt to edge closer to the doors of the refugee registration center in Dera Ismail Khan on the edge of the tribal areas in northwest Pakistan. As time slips by, so does their restraint. Waving angry fists with one hand and clasping their documents with the other, the group of men heaves toward the doors. Policemen on duty scatter the unruly crowd with forceful swings of their long bamboo sticks.


Pakistan 'key' to UK terror plots
A US report investigating links between Britain and Pakistan says that "a physical and ideological terrorism pipeline" exists between the countries.


Kerry says McChrystal's troop request 'reaches too far, too fast'
Sen. John F. Kerry declared Monday that he opposes sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan unless the government and military there improve their performance, and said the top American military commander in the country is moving "too far, too fast" in recommending an increase of more than 40,000 troops.


Obama says he will not rush Afghanistan decision
Despite Republican pressure to act quickly, President Barack Obama says he won't rush his decision about whether to send more troops to Afghanistan where 14 Americans died in the deadliest day for U.S. forces in more than four years.


Obama golfs more than Bush
The president's golf game on Sunday brought him even with President George W. Bush in playing 24 rounds in office, according to Mark Knoller of CBS News. It took Bush 2 years and 9 months, but took Obama less than a year. Obama's most frequent course for golf is Fort Belvoir.


India, China, Russia FMs hold talks in Bangalore
he foreign ministers of India, China and Russia met Tuesday for a trilateral meeting in Bangalore to boost ties between the emerging market giants, officials said.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

Nouri & Barack

Brookings Institute has a great blog posting on yesterday's bombings in Baghdad.

Of note:

None of this is good news for President Obama. He cannot pull American troops out of Iraq only to have the place collapse back into civil war and he has stated that he will not do so. For that reason, he can't refuse a request from PM Maliki to return the U.S. troops to Baghdad. But doing so will make it very difficult to stick to the 19-month troop drawdown he unveiled in February, and which may be necessary if he chooses to greatly increase American forces in Afghanistan. The president needs the Iraqis to be able to provide for their own security, thus allowing the drawdown. To use a diplomatic term of understatement, returning American troops to Iraqi cities, or even just Baghdad, would be "unhelpful" to that goal.

What is interesting about this scenario is that breaking the withdrawal timeline will not only impact the transfer of equipment and troops to Afghanistan, Muqtada al Sadr will likely re-mobilize his militia. Just last Friday, Muqtada al Sadr demanded a "speedy withdrawal" of U.S. forces from Iraq. It looks like the worst case scenario is beginning to take form.

Warfare at the Ph.D Level

"One Tribe at a Time" will eventually become mandatory reading for those following Afghanistan. Over the past several weeks, we have seen excerpts posted on Steven Pressfield's blog. The full paper is now available for download and is easily THE definitive document on tribal engagement.

You can download the PDF here.

Two sources often cited in the paper:

RAND: Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

and

Koran, Kalashnikov, and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan 2002-2007 by Antonio Giustozzi

October 26th Morning Readbook

Bombings rock Iraq's political landscape
DEADLIEST ATTACKS IN TWO YEARS
'A clear message' to Maliki before elections


Maliki blames Qaeda, Baathist for attack
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has issued a statement blaming al-Qaeda and Baathi supporters of the former dictator Saddam Hussein for the deadly attack in the country.


Clinton visiting Pakistan as friend: Holbrooke
WASHINGTON: Special US Envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke has said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is coming to Pakistan as a friend, not with conditions but with support for the democratically-elected government and the people of Pakistan.


PREVIEW - Afghanistan in focus at trilateral meet in India
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The foreign ministers of Russia, India and China will meet on Tuesday with the threat of rising Taliban violence in Afghanistan and ways to rebuild the war-torn country expected to be major topics.


U.S. tested 2 Afghan scenarios in war game
Obama and advisers evaluating exercise that used different troop levels
The Pentagon's top military officer oversaw a secret war game this month to evaluate the two primary military options that have been put forward by the Pentagon and are being weighed by the Obama administration as part of a broad-based review of the faltering Afghanistan war, senior military officials said.


India Meets With China on Settling Disputes
NEW DELHI -- The prime ministers of India and China said they would seek to build trust between their two countries, after recent spats over trade, visas and an ill-defined border underscored growing frictions between the two Asian giants.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

Al Jazeera - Scores killed in Iraq blasts

More on the Baghdad bombings from the AJ perspective.

New Twin Bombings in Baghdad

The second wave insurgency continues to build momentum. Permissive environments to lauch attacks have been carved out of Anbar province, home of the first wave. It appears the insurgents/terrorists (your choice) are leveraging the rural areas for urban attacks as illustrated by the twin bombings on 19 August and today.

Here are some of the latest headlines.

Suicide bombs tear through Baghdad, kill 132
Bloodiest day in Baghdad for months
Two suicide bombers in vehicles
Government blames al Qaeda or Baathists


Update///2 blasts near Iranian embassy
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Two blasts occurred on Sunday morning near the Iranian embassy headquarters in central Baghdad, a source from the nearby U.S. embassy said.


2nd update///Baghdad blasts leave 15 killed, 32 wounded
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Fifteen people were killed and 32 others wounded when two car bombs driven by suicide attackers went off near the Iranian embassy headquarters in central Baghdad on Sunday, a security source said.


3rd update///Casualties from Baghdad’s deadly blasts up to 65
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The death toll from Sunday’s earlier car bomb blasts near the Iranian embassy in Baghdad rose to 25 and the wounded to 40, a security source said.


4th Update///Baghdad blast casualties jump to 242
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The death toll from Sunday’s earlier car bomb blasts near the government buildings in Baghdad rose to 62 and the wounded to 180, a security source said.


5th Update///Baghdad’s deadly blasts leave 535 casualties
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The death toll from the two car bomb blasts near the government buildings in Baghdad rose to 75 and the wounded to 460, a police source said.


6th Update///Baghdad’s suicide explosions kill 132, injure 500
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Casualties from the two suicide explosions that targeted the government’s buildings in Baghdad rose again to 132 dead and 500 wounded, according to a police source.


At least 62 killed, 180 injured in Baghdad twin bombings
BAGHDAD, Oct. 25 (Xinhua) -- At least 62 people were killed and some 180 others injured in twin truck bombings near government buildings in downtown Baghdad on Sunday, an Interior Ministry source said.


Death toll rises to 132 in Baghdad twin bombings
BAGHDAD, Oct. 25 (Xinhua) -- The death toll from two truck bomb explosions in central Baghdad on Sunday rose to 132 with 512 people injured, an Interior Ministry source said.

Institutionalized Failure in Iraq

The Security Pact signed between the U.S. and Iraq reversed the positive momentum and gains achieved during 2007-8. Press releases by U.S. forces in Iraq are overly optimistic and conflict with the recent Congressional testimony of GEN Odierno. In late September he stated the following:

Since 2006, we have systemically decreased the number of foreign fighters entering Iraq and significantly reduced al Qaeda in Iraq to a small ideological core that recruits disenfranchised Iraqis and criminals. In the north, AQI and some remnants of Sunni insurgent groups continue in their attempt to reestablish a foothold with the objective of expanding back into Anbar and Baghdad.

Taking a sample of MNF-I press releases from October 1st to October 24th U.S. and Iraqi forces arrested 125 al Qaeda in Iraq members. If 125 arrests have demonstrably no impact on a "a small ideological core that recruits disenfranchised Iraqis and criminals" it is time to reevaluate our current strategy.

The biggest mistake the U.S. can continue to make is to back a dictatorial and sectarian regime. The current Iraqi government continues to blame every security incident on the defunct Baath Party and al Qaeda in Iraq. Apparently, the Shiite-dominated government is one of the few remaining groups in the world linking Saddam Hussein's regime to al Qaeda. A foreign force conducting population-centric COIN can only serve as a buffer between a government and its people. Only the host nation government can truly reconcile with its people, something a Maliki government is unwilling to do.

MNF-I Press Releases Referenced:

http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28323&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28417&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28396&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28388&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28364&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28363&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28358&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28331&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28332&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28322&Itemid=132
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28332&Itemid=21
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28324&Itemid=21
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28323&Itemid=21
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28322&Itemid=21
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28299&Itemid=21
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28266&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28272&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28253&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28245&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28204&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28190&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28197&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28201&Itemid=128
http://www.cjtf7.army.mil/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28157&Itemid=128
http://www.mnfi.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28144&Itemid=21

October 25th Morning Readbook

Scores killed, at least 500 wounded in bomb attacks in Baghdad
Twin car bombs targeted two government buildings in downtown Baghdad Sunday, wrecking pillars of the state's authority and cutting like a scythe through snarled traffic during the morning rush hour. The government said at least 132 people were killed and 520 wounded in one of the worst attacks in Baghdad.


Iraqi court seeks arrest of Sunni MP
A local criminal court in Iraq's Diyala province issued an arrest warrant for a Sunni member of parliament on suspicion of financing and inciting sectarian violence, a security official in the northeastern province said Saturday.


Eyes on the Prize
BAGHDAD, Aug. 25, 2012 — President Obama flew into Baghdad today on his end-of-term tour to highlight successes in U.S. foreign policy. At a time when the Arab-Israel negotiations remain mired in deadlock and Afghanistan remains mired in quagmire, Mr. Obama hailed the peaceful end of America’s combat presence in Iraq as his only Middle East achievement. Speaking to a gathering of Iraqi and U.S. officials under the banner “Mission Actually Accomplished,” written in Arabic and English, Mr. Obama took credit for helping Iraq achieve a decent — albeit hugely costly — end to the war initiated by President Bush. Aides said Mr. Obama would highlight the progress in Iraq in his re-election campaign.


FACTBOX - Security developments in Iraq, Oct 25
Following are security developments in Iraq at 7:00 a.m. EDT (1100 GMT) on Sunday.


TIMELINE - Deadliest bomb attacks in Iraq
Twin car bombs targeting two government buildings killed at least 132 people and wounded more than 500 in central Baghdad on Sunday, police said, the bloodiest attack in the Iraqi capital this year.


Major attacks in Iraq since Jan. 1
Major attacks in Iraq since Jan. 1, when a new U.S.-Iraqi security pact took effect:


The Great American Arm-Twist in Afghanistan
By the looks of it, the ceremony that unfolded last week inside the Presidential Palace here was marking a joyous, even triumphant, occasion.


Report: U.S. drone kills 24 in Pakistan
A U.S. drone reportedly killed 24 people in northern Pakistan, including Taliban members meeting in an underground hideout, witnesses and officials said.


Pakistan army says Taliban on run
Taliban fighters battling Pakistani troops in South Waziristan could target schools, markets and mosques, military officials warned Sunday.


The latest news from Al Jazeera.

Two Most Influential Thinkers...

Alvin Toffler and Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Toffler's "The Third Wave" set my personal framework for any type of foreign development or reconstruction project. The third wave refers to his assessment that human history has experienced only three revolutions; agricultural, industrial, and information. He further breaks down how each revolution changed the structure of families, economies, cultures, religion, governments, and societies. Here he is discussing his latest book.



Using Toffler's framework, I developed the the concept of searching patent office archives for inventions that can be indigenously produced by the local population. This, as opposed to our current strategy of handing out generators to farmers still using candles and have no source of fuel is far more effective at building/rebuilding self-sustaining local economies and creating stakeholders. It is essentially the difference between teaching how to fish and handing out food which the U.S. sometimes does calling it "humanitarian" to create a dependency and bankrupt local farmers.


Nassim Nicholas Taleb is easily one of the smartest modern philosophers I have ever heard. For anyone with the occupation of forecasting, his book, "The Black Swan" is a must-read. Here he is in his own words explaining the black swan concept.

"Don’t confuse liquidating al-Qaeda with liquidating the Taliban"

Defense and the National Interest has probably the most thought-provoking and damning assessment of GEN McChrystal's proposed Afghanistan strategy.

Slide 4 of Doug Macgregor's presentation is the major selling point.

The centerpiece of General McChrystal's "new" counterinsurgency strategy of "clear, hold, build" is the accelerated training and expansion of the Afghan Army and Police Forces (ANSF) (along with a major increase in the size of our forces by as much as 45,000 troops) to support clear/hold/build.

The strategic goal is to establish an expanding zone of security for the Afghan people that would enable a steady build up of aid and development efforts to improve the Afghan populace’s well being with jobs, new infrastructure, new education systems, new agricultural techniques, etc., thereby winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.

There is nothing new in General McChrystal's strategy, it is merely a rehash of the failed oil spot (tache d'huile) strategy, first tried by French colonialist General Louis-Hubert-Gonsalve Lyautey in Algeria; then tried again under various guises by the US in Vietnam.

The problem is clear/hold/build cannot be executed on behalf of another government (particularly a weak and corrupt government) by a foreign army (unless the foreign army plans to permanently and ruthlessly occupy on the old European or Ottoman colonial models). Americans don’t want that!

Buying off the Pashtun Tribes with hard cash as Petraeus did in Iraq won’t work! Incentive structure does not exist.

I partially disagree with the last bullet. The concept that "you can rent a militia but not buy one" is evident from the 2001 invasion.

Download the full presentation here.

Population-Centric Counterterrorism

Counterterrorism is an art the U.S. is coming close to perfecting. The CT strategy implemented in Iraq was brilliant yet often mistaken for COIN. In an effort to help formulate a stronger strategy for Afghanistan, I will dissect the 2007 U.S. approach for Iraq.

Enemy - The enemy was clearly defined. Meaningless Orwellian terms such as "anti-Iraqi forces" were eventually tossed out. Al Qaeda in Iraq, a terrorist group, became the primary focus.

Doctrine - Population-centric counterinsurgency as the new strategy. The concept of "clear, hold, build" was outlined as to how it would be implemented and how it related specifically to the Iraq scenario.

Allies - Using the sea to attack the fish. Because of the decentralized nature of the insurgency in Iraq, the U.S. was able to take advantage by co-opting a large portion of its support and operational structure to fight as allies. While the 2007 surge leadership typically receives credit for this, it was previously developed in 2006 out in Anbar province.

Overview - The initial cause or issue that sparked an insurgency is ultimately replaced with sentiments on the war itself. Furthermore, the fastest way to create an insurgency is through the use of terrorism, but this is a double edged sword. Eventually the Iraqis grew tired of the violence that came with tactically aligning with al Qaeda in Iraq. With the strategic blunder of pre-maturely announcing an Islamic Caliphate, al Qaeda in Iraq's allies drifted away as some became enemies. Insurgents proved to be a far superior U.S. ally as the official Iraq government security forces were both deeply infiltrated with sectarian militias and largely unwilling to fight for a country appearing at the time on the verge of collapse.

Lessons Learned - A three tier approach outside the "partner" government is the most effective. First: population-centric tactics create the environment necessary to co-opt locals that passively or actively support the insurgency. Second: The insurgency has the best intelligence on the terrorists operating in their areas; co-opt them. Third: drones and kill/capture missions can now be executed with success as a tourniquet has been applied to the terrorists regeneration capabilities.

Can this be applied to Afghanistan?

Unfortunately I cannot answer this question as the President of the United States has yet to state his strategy so I can only be speculative. If the President decides to go after the Taliban, a term the U.S. uses for any Afghan violently opposed to the corrupt government of Hamid Karzai and nationalists fighting non-Muslim foreign troops in their homeland, then no these lessons learned from Iraq cannot be applied.

One unstated concept can be transferred. The Afghans will back whomever they perceive as eventually winning. The U.S. has a 34 year legacy of abandonment well known in Central Asia and currently being witnessed in Iraq. That may prove the ultimate obstacle to overcome.

October 24th Morning Readbook

Taliban threaten Afghan run-off vote, urge boycott
The Taliban called on Afghans on Saturday to boycott next month's presidential election run-off and vowed to disrupt voting in a repeat of their threat to derail the disputed first round.


Army captures Pakistani Taliban leader's hometown
The army captured the strategically located hometown of Pakistan's Taliban chief Saturday after fierce fighting, officials said, snagging its first big prize in a major U.S.-backed offensive along the Afghan border.


India a strategic ally, says US
In a balancing act, the United States has termed its relationship with India as “strategic and important’’ while calling Pakistan a “treasured friend and ally’’.


The Kirkuk conundrum
Iraqi democracy is stuck in a constitutional hiatus over the Kurdish-dominated region that threatens to derail elections


Iraqi cleric's aide warns of chaos if vote delayed
A delay in the January parliamentary election could lead to chaos, a top aide to Iraq's Shiite spiritual leader warned Friday, as lawmakers remained deadlocked over legislation that would regulate the crucial national vote. Sheik Abdul-Mahdi al-Karbalaie, the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in the holy city of Karbala, said the revered cleric wants elections — set for January 16 — to be held on time.


Iran May Qualify for Nuclear Fuel Supply Plan, Poneman Says
Iran may qualify for imports of uranium under an international program to provide countries with “cradle-to-grave” supplies of nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes, Deputy U.S. Energy Secretary Daniel Poneman said.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

October 23rd Morning Readbook

Insurgents Share a Name, but Pursue Different Goals
As it devises a new Afghanistan policy, the Obama administration confronts a complex geopolitical puzzle: two embattled governments, in Afghanistan and Pakistan; numerous militias aligned with overlapping Islamist factions; and hidden in the factions’ midst, the foe that brought the United States to the region eight years ago, Al Qaeda.


Counting Backward
America’s top diplomat in Iraq, Christopher Hill, and America’s top commander there, Gen. Ray Odierno, have been wrangling for months over how much United States officials should get involved in Iraqi politics.


Russia agrees to Iran nuclear deal: Lavrov
Russia has agreed to a proposal by the U.N. nuclear watchdog to help reduce Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday.


McChrystal meets Nato on Afghan war
The US military commander in Afghanistan is making an appearance at a meeting of Nato defence minister in Slovakia, to brief them on his strategy for the war.


Pakistan suicide bomber kills six
A suspected suicide bomber has killed six people outside Pakistan's main air force maintenance facility.


China, India Stoke 21st-Century Rivalry
In the brewing discord between two giant, ambitious nations, even a remote meadow in the Himalayas is worth fighting over.

The latest news from Al Jazeera

What is happening in Anbar Province? Part II

The return of insurgency.

In a previous posting, we highlighted the deteriorating security situation in Anbar province. We have also discussed the sense of abandonment tribal sheiks once allied with the U.S. are expressing.

For this post I would like to highlight one of the lessons from Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice by David Galula.

Galula discusses terrorism as a shortcut method of establishing a revolutionary environment. He notes the first step being "blind terrorism" as acts simply to bring attention to the cause. The second step he refers to as "selective terrorism" which involves the targeted killings of low-level government officials that interact with the population.

In Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency, Roger Trinquier best sums up how the terrorist gains popular support.

The goal of modern warfare is control of the populace, and terrorism is a particularly appropriate weapon, since it aims directly at the inhabitant. In the street, at work, at home, the citizen lives continually under the threat of violent death. In the presence of this permanent danger surrounding him; he has the depressing feeling of being an isolated and defenseless target. The fact that public authority and the police are no longer capable of ensuring his security adds to his distress. He loses confidence in the state whose inherent mission it is to guarantee his safety. He is more and more drawn to the side of the terrorists, who alone are able to protect him.

Both of these French officers are the godfathers for modern U.S. COIN doctrine. Both also shed light as to what is occurring now in Anbar Province.

We are witnessing an escalation in target selection. We can safely assess that terrorists have created a permissive environment among the population through intimidation and coercion. As this second insurgency begins to crystallize, we will soon find out if the Iraqis are in fact ready and capable of handling security in their country.

October 21st Morning Readbook

SCENARIOS-Outcomes for the Afghan presidential run-off
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has agreed to face a second-round run-off to resolve Afghanistan's disputed presidential election which it is hoped will end weeks of political limbo and uncertainty for the war-riven country.


U.S. troops in Iraq have time on hands
Because of new rules that require Iraqi approval for all U.S. missions, and a general decline in violence nationwide, many of the 117,000 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq say they now have more idle time than at any previous point in the six-year war.


Bombs And Bribes Deployed
In Pakistan, the latest spate of suicide attacks by the Taliban has mobilized the senior Islamic clerics in Pakistan to condemn the practice (which kills a lot of innocents). Most Pakistanis are not keen to get their religious leadership from tribal warlords. In South Waziristan, troops have been warned to be on the watch for roadside bombs, which are expected to be used a lot by the local tribesmen.


Congress agrees on moving Guantanamo inmates
Congress took a step toward President Barack Obama's goal of closing Guantanamo Bay prison on Tuesday when it cleared a measure allowing foreign terrorism suspects held there to face prosecution in the United States.


Pakistani University Bombed, Offensive Rages


Al Jazeera Mobile Bulletin - 0535GMT - 21 Oct 09

WTF is Population Centric COIN?

Here is a primer on population centric COIN.

Commander-in-Chief: The Procrastinator

The headlines are starting to get annoying now. It is sad how public this decision making process has become. The most powerful person on the planet appears as if he is being overwhelmed. Not to say that it is an easy decision; far from it. He just needs to follow the criticisms he had for his predecessor and ignore his VP. To quote Tom Ricks, "when was the last time Joe Biden was right about anything?"

The United States has adopted the doctrine of population-centric COIN. This is not a government-centric doctrine. Look at the U.S. execution of COIN in Iraq during 2007. U.S. forces stood as a buffer between the democratically elected government and its revolting people. The U.S. stepped in to protect the population from an al-Qaeda franchise, Iranian sponsored Shia militias conducting a genocide campaign against Sunni Arabs, and its own government assisting in the attempted genocide.

The excuse of waiting for legitimate election results is just that; an excuse. A healthy amount of caution and deliberation is preferred to attacking the wrong country, but troops are already in theater. Give the U.S. mission what it needs or pull out.

So here's some of the latest from The Procrastinator:

Obama not yet sure of Afghanistan troop decision timing
President Barack Obama has not yet determined whether he will make a decision on sending more troops to Afghanistan before the November 7 election runoff, a US official said Tuesday.


U.S. decision can't wait for Afghan legitimacy: Gates
The United States cannot wait for problems surrounding the legitimacy of the Afghan government to be resolved before making a decision on troops, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said.


FACTBOX: Obama hearing range of views on Afghanistan
U.S. President Barack Obama has not decided whether to wait for the results of an Afghanistan presidential election run-off on November 7 to announce a new war strategy.

October 20th Morning Readbook

Taliban, Al-Qaeda recruiting from Europe, America
In a disturbing development, Taliban and Al-Qaeda have expanded their recruiting base from South and Central Asia to European countries and even to the US. According to reports, many recruits have been travelling to Pakistan and Afghanistan for training in their terror factories.


FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 20
FALLUJA - A car bomb killed four people including two policemen and wounded nine civilians in a town outside of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded one soldier and three civilians when it struck an army patrol in northern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb injured two civilians in northern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb attached to a minibus wounded three civilians in northern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three people in eastern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol wounded one policeman and two civilians in eastern Baghdad on Monday, police said.

MOSUL - Iraqi troops killed a gunman in a raid that wounded one soldier in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad on Monday, police said.


An insurgency swells, but Pakistan focuses on India
PAKISTAN REELS from almost daily bombings, and its cities, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, and Islamabad are cited in news reports as once were Ramadi, Najaf, Samarra, and Baghdad when Iraq was on the boil.


The Afghanistan problem
The huge cultural misunderstandings between Western forces and the Afghan people make it unlikely any counterinsurgency mission in the countryside will succeed.


Inside the Islamic Emirate
This is the second installment in a five-part series offering a first-person account by David Rohde of his seven months as a captive of the Taliban in Pakistan. Mr. Rohde, a New York Times reporter, was kidnapped with two Afghan colleagues on Nov. 10, 2008, as they traveled to an interview with a Taliban commander outside of Kabul, Afghanistan.

The articles are based on Mr. Rohde’s recollections and, where possible, records kept by his family and colleagues. For safety reasons, certain names and details have been withheld.


Civilians caught up South Waziristan fighting

Tribal Engagement

How is this for a shopping list.

Three to twelve [U.S.] men, based on the environment

2 interpreters

2 SAT phones

2 SATCOM radios (piggyback frequency)

2 PRC-119s

2 ATVs

2 Pickup trucks

3 Generators

2 Computers with a biometrics kit

Plus initial infill logistics package for the tribe:

100 AK-47s

30,000 to 50,000 rounds of ammunition

Assorted medical supplies

A ‘Gift of Honor’ for the tribal chief

Steven Pressfield has an outstanding series going on his blog, "One Tribe at a Time."

If you don't have time to read...

The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual FM 3-24, make time. If you do not feel like buying a used copy for $9, you can download a PDF version. Here is almost 7 minutes of highlights.

Understand the Culture and the Strategy Writes Itself (III)

October 19th Morning Readbook

In Iraq, security is only surface deep
Only in Iraq would a week in which more than 50 people perished in bombings and shootings be considered a good one.


Taliban vs India
With the Americans refusing to take sides in any part of the conflict that doesn’t suit their own national interests, little incentive remains for the Pakistanis to construct a strategy that would leave them without options after American withdrawal.


Questions about Al Qaeda's next move
Some intelligence experts speculate that, under increasing Pakistani pressure, the terrorist network may try to relocate once again to Afghanistan. Others are not so sure.


U.S. says credible partner in Afghanistan is crucial
As the presidential election dispute drags on, White House officials say Afghan leaders must form a stable government that the public sees as credible and legitimate.


Pakistan presses drive against militants
The Pakistani army pushed farther into a mountainous Taliban and al-Qaeda haven Sunday, as civilians continued to flow out of an area that has become a full-fledged battleground.


Iran urges Pakistan action after attack
Iran has received information that "some security agents" in Pakistan were cooperating with elements behind Sunday's attack on the Revolutionary Guards, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.


Revolutionary Guard Commanders Killed in Bombing

Outline for a COIN Campaign Plan (Part 1)

This is a very rough outline. Steps below will be expanded upon in future posts. This outline is a mix of terrain, enemy, and population-centric COIN tactics. The overall strategy is to counter an insurgency by becoming one.

Step 1: Removal of 2 year U.S. election-cycle politics over foreign policy. Introduce a new bill similar to Congressional authorization of war requiring a 20 year commitment to the counterinsurgency mission in designated country. U.S. foreign policy is on a 2 year scale and determined by politicians desiring to retain their seats. While this is effective for domestic policy, it has earned the U.S. a reputation of being a fair-weather friend. No life is worth a politician changing their minds in order to protect their own job. Commit or do not.

Step 2: 10 year security plan. Map out the human terrain to determine the best geographic area to start. ALL resources dedicated to a single province. Similar to total war, this will be total population-centric COIN.

Step 2a: Security. Static and mobile CT mission structure. Conventional forces create a static perimeter while CT forces attack insurgents isolated from poulation. Census is conducted and customer surveys are taken. Local militia is raised to later transition into police and army. Remaining insurgents dealt with by locals according to local customs.

Step 2b. Economics. Creating a self-sustaining area of local operations requiring minimal to no aid. Conduct a chronological survey on the technology advancements in the current area of operations. What are the most common indigenously-crafted tools for the local economy? Has this area naturally entered the industrial revolution? Developmental economic experts, historic replicators, and anthropologists will formulate what tools and inventions the local populace can create on their own. Older patents will be leveraged and taught to the local populace. Technology-developmental appropriate techniques of invention and medical practice will be taught; first by train the learner, then train the trainer.

Step 2c. Politics. The naturally forming power structure of the region will be encouraged to move their economic project managers and legal/customs experts into a local government structure. Locals will determine what and how this looks. This is for the indigenous management and regulation of the security and economic sectors. Foreign forces will assist in creating methods of transparency for local rule of law, not writing the rule of law. Self-determination should be the guiding principle.


Step 3. Transition. Replacement of static forces, economic enablers, and political management as new Area of Operations is designated to repeat steps 2a-2c. Advisors and cadre of security, economic, and political entities remain for duration of campaign.

Step 4. Convergence. Merging most proficient elements of provincial security, economics, and political bodies. As provinces or designated areas of COIN operations reach a level of self-sustainability, foster an environment of interdependence. This will be the nascent stages of a new Host Nation government.


Step 5. Legitimate grassroots turned national governance. Foreign forces military drawdown begins. Central government becomes focus area for any security, economic, or political assistance to other provinces. Economic treaties are signed to assist in a natural transition into industrial and information age self-sustaining environments.

What is happening in Anbar Province?

We have been told continuously all is well, but is that the case? Let's take a look at attacks starting from the U.S. pull out of the cities at the end of June. See if you can find the targeting trend. Headlines from icasualties.org.

JULY

07/15/09 Ramadi - Five people were killed and 12 others were injured mostly soldiers from Abu Risha emergency battalion when a suicide car bomb detonated in downtown Ramadi city around 9 a.m.

07/16/09 Anbar - An Iraqi Emergency Force killed a policeman while attempting to detain him in in his home in Garma neighbourhood, 20 km to the north of Fallujah, Thursday morning.

07/17/09 FALLUJA - A bomb planted in the house of a police captain killed two children and wounded 11 other members of the same family in the city of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

07/17/09 FALLUJA - A bomb inside a football ground killed one person and wounded nine others in Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

07/20/09 RAMADI - A bomb in a parked car killed two policemen and wounded another when it exploded near a police checkpoint close to Anbar's provincial council building in central Ramadi.

07/21/09 RAMADI - a car bomb exploded outside a restaurant where deputy provincial police chief Mohammed Dulaimi was having lunch. Five people were killed and 17 were wounded.

07/25/09 FALLUJA - A car bomb exploded near the offices of the Iraqi Islamic Party, killing five people and wounding 21 others in Falluja...an Interior Ministry source said. Police said there were two blasts and put the toll at two killed and 25 wounded.

07/27/09 FALLUJA - A bomb planted on the car of an Iraqi army captain killed him in Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

07/30/09 QAIM - A suicide bomber drove a car packed with explosives into a police station in Qaim, 300 km (185 miles) west of Baghdad, killing four people and wounding seven, police said.

AUGUST

08/02/09 Haditha - Eight people (three men, three children and two women were killed and 20 others were wounded by a parked car bomb in Haditha town northwest of Ramadi city around 10 a.m.

08/05/09 RAMADI - A bomb in a parked car killed a woman and wounded two policemen and a civilian when it struck a police patrol in central Ramadi, 100 km (60 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

08/14/09 Falaht - One civilian was killed when a bomb detonated near a fuel station in Falaht area to the west of Fallujah around 11 a.m.

08/16/09 FALLUJA - Gunmen broke into a house and killed four people then booby trapped the building with bombs, wounding five people who tried to enter it after the shooting, police said.

08/29/09 FALLUJA - A bomb attached to the car of a local politician representing Interior Minister Jawad Bolani's party killed the politician, his son and another person travelling with them in Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

SEPTEMBER

09/07/09 RAMADI - A suicide bomber drove a car packed with explosives into a police checkpoint just outside the city of Ramadi, 100 km (60 miles) west of Baghdad, killing nine people and wounding 13, police said.

09/27/09 RAMADI - A suicide car bomber killed three policemen and wounded eight when he detonated himself outside a police station near Ramadi, 100 km (60 miles) west of Baghdad, local police colonel Ahmed Abood said.

09/28/09 ANBAR - A suicide bomber driving a water tanker packed with explosives blew himself up near a police station, killing seven policemen and wounding 10, said Hussein Ali, a police major in the area west of the city of Ramadi, 100 km (60 miles) west of Baghdad.

OCTOBER

10/01/09 FALLUJA - A bomb planted on a car killed one civilian and wounded another in Fallujah, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

10/05/09 FALLUJA - A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded 6, including two Iraqi soldiers, when it exploded near an Iraqi army patrol in central Falluja, 50 km (35 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

10/06/09 FALLUJA - A minibus bomb exploded at a market in the western Iraqi town of Amiriya on Tuesday, killing at least nine people and wounding 31, a local official said.

10/09/09 FALLUJA - A bomb attached to a car killed a Sunni imam and two other people in a village outside of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.

10/11/09 RAMADI - Three car bombs exploded in Ramadi, 70 miles west of Baghdad, killing 19 and injuring 81. Two car bombs exploded in a quick succession.The third attack targeted the main hospital in the city by a suicide attacker driving a car bomb.

So we have the US mission in Anbar Province drawing to a close, assassinations of authority figures on the rise, and this past weekend two attacks against infrastructure. But since the frequency of attacks and number of people killed are not near the 2006 level, Anbar is still a success. Then again, it took a year for the U.S. leadership to finally acknowledge the existence of an insurgency. I think this quote from the Washington Post article on the bridge bombings sums up the current status.

"If insurgents can possess five tons of explosives and use them freely to destroy bridges, then it would be a shame to claim that we have achieved security,"

A quick 10+ minutes on tribal power plays and dynamics in recent Iraq history.

October 18th Morning Readbook

Insurgents Destroy 2 Bridges In Anbar
Attacks Pick Up In Western Iraq


Seven suspected Qaeda members go on trial in Yemen
A Yemeni court on Saturday opened the trial of seven suspected Al-Qaeda members charged with carrying out a spate of deadly attacks on government and Western targets in Sanaa.


Too early to send more US troops to Afghanistan: Kerry
US Senator John Kerry says it is "irresponsible" to send more US troops to Afghanistan at this time, amid a deepening election crisis that has placed the Kabul government's legitimacy at stake.


Nearly 50 years on, we're still fighting
India and China, often referred to as the elephant and the dragon, are currently embroiled in a mini-war of words over the status of Arunachal
Pradesh, the state that was at the core of the brief October 1962 border war between the two Asian giants. On October 20, 47 years ago, global attention was focused on the unfolding Cuban missile crisis and the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between US president John F Kennedy and his Soviet counterpart Nikita Khruschev. That was the time China, with Chairman Mao at the helm, decided to teach India a ‘lesson’.


Pakistan Starts Key Offensive Against Taliban

Return of the Taliban - Frontline October 2006

If you have not seen the 2006 FRONTLINE episode "Return of the Taliban", it is certainly worth your time. Also, if you can take a look at "The War Briefing" and "Obama's War."

There is some good info in there. It is a bit disheartening to see how little has changed for the better in the past three years. Here is one more 2006 flashback:


Accept defeat by Taliban, Pakistan tells Nato
By Ahmed Rashid in Islamabad
Published: 12:03AM GMT 29 Nov 2006

Senior Pakistani officials are urging Nato countries to accept the Taliban and work towards a new coalition government in Kabul that might exclude the Afghan president Hamid Karzai.

Will we hit this point again this year or next year?

Mr Karzai has long insisted that the Taliban sanctuaries and logistics bases are in Pakistan while Gen James Jones, the Supreme Commander of Nato, told the US Congress in September that the Taliban leadership is headquartered in the Pakistani city of Quetta.

Lt Gen Ali Mohammed Jan Orakzai, governor of the volatile North West Frontier Province has stated publicly that the US, Britain and Nato have already failed in Afghanistan. "Either it is a lack of understanding or it is a lack of courage to admit their failures," he said recently.

13 Notes on COIN - JP 3-24

After reading JP 3-24 I noted a few doctrinal issues.

1. COIN is not a synonym for nation building. Foreign troops assisting a nation from violent overthrow from within is conducting foreign internal defense. In this role, the U.S. will eventually depart so gaining the trust of the people serves a temporary purpose.
   
   
2. Without a Department of Foreign Internal Defense creating a unified chain of command for political, economic, and security functions, current COIN operations are 20% effective (temporary security improvements) with 80% wishful thinking towards a HN political solution.
   
   
3. A Host Nation's military force does not have to belong to the government. They can be an indigenous force or militia. Convert portions of the local militia to law enforcement in order to aid in the Hold phase.

   "Build (or rebuild) a political machine from the population upward."
   - David Galula, the godfather of modern COIN theory

4. Supporting corrupt and dysfunctional governments only erodes U.S. reputation. Population-centric and Government-centric approaches tend to be conflicting. If helping the people conflicts with helping the current government, back the people.
   
   
5. If theater leadership does not trust small unit leaders to grow a beard or dress according to local customs for fear of losing military discipline, failure may be inevitable. Trusting small unit leaders requires demonstrable actions and "decentralizing to the point of being uncomfortable" is not just an FM 3-24 bumper sticker slogan.
   
   
6. Why are there insurgents in your Area of Operations? The answer will be the foundation for how to uproot them.
   
   
7. Operationally collected information is not "intelligence", but rather the most important data you need and must share. Spam everyone in spite of service, rank, or agency with what you just learned.
   
   
8. T.E. Lawrence was an advisor to an insurgency, not a counterinsurgent. Stop quoting him.
   
   
9. Terrorism has two primary strategic intentions: Intimidate a government into a political retreat or provoke a government heavy handed response. Terrorist propaganda capitalizes on either government reaction to solicit popular support for the group's political goals. A successful terror campaign will result in political concessions or an insurgency.
   
   
10. Economics are not the root cause of insurgency; it is quality of life. Stating that economics drives violent behavior implies the impoverished lack a moral compass. When quality of life improves, only ideologues and zealots remain. Public perceptions of an existential threat are critical to the sustainability of an insurgency.
    
    
11. Liberation remains at the heart of insurgency; from an oppressive government, to a foreign occupation, or a combination thereof.
    
    
12. Media is a force multiplier. The bully loses popular support but so does the coward. Co-opt the locally trusted news sources.
    
    
13. Do not label insurgents as you will most likely be incorrect and appear to locals as if you have no idea what is happening. Everyone opposed to the Iraqi government is not al Qaeda in Iraq and everyone opposed to the Karzai government is not Taliban. Use the labels the locals use but be weary of deception for personal gains.