Maliki's actions, and Obama's inaction, threaten an Iraq democracy
Since the success of the 2007 surge in Iraq, violent attacks have fallen more than 90% and Iraqis have been making steady progress toward stability and democracy. That momentum is now threatened by the actions of Iraq's prime minister, Nouri Maliki, and by the inaction of the Obama administration.
Bombs planted in home of policeman kill 3 in Iraq
The bombing was one of several attacks around Iraq's north that killed at least 10 people over the weekend, a sign that authorities are struggling to maintain security as the country's politicians clamor over the shape of a new government two months after an inconclusive election.
Taliban gears up for Western offensive in Kandahar
In an apparent PR effort, a self-styled Taliban spokesman in Kandahar speaks to a reporter, declaring, 'The foreign occupiers have come to our city, and we will fight them.'
US warns Pakistan over Times Square bomb attempt
The United States has delivered a tough new warning to Pakistan to crack down on Islamic militants or face severe consequences after the failed Times Square bombing.
U.S. drone missiles kill at least six in Pakistan
U.S. drone aircraft fired two missiles into a Taliban compound in Pakistan's North Waziristan region on the Afghan border on Sunday, killing at least six militants, Pakistani security officials said.
Kirkland man deported to Iraq for ties to Al Qaeda
A Kirkland man and Iraqi citizen was recently removed to his native country for ties to an Al Qaeda leader after a federal immigration judge deemed him a national security risk, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced Thursday.
Are Al-Qaeda and Taliban running out of intelligent recruits in anti-American terrorist campaign
Judging by recent bungled bombing attempts it would seem as if terrorist organizations are scraping the bottom of the barrel and maybe have run out of reasonably intelligent terrorist bombers. Of course "reasonably intelligent" and "terrorist bomber" don't necessarily go hand in hand. The attempt by Faisal Shahzad to bomb Times Square and run, failed miserably. Even the "run" part of the equation didn't work too well. Add the botched job by another terrorist in Detroit on Christmas Day and you have the makings of some either weak links in the terrorist chain or some pretty dumb folks.
Pressure on Pakistan amid fresh terror links
Alleged links between the Times Square plot and extremist networks are adding to perceptions of Pakistan as a global exporter of terrorism and increasing pressure on its military to crack down on extremists along the Afghan border.
Attacks signal end of poppy harvest in Afghanistan
The gunfire and explosions echoing across this Taliban-infested district in southern Afghanistan on Friday signaled the end of the opium poppy harvest as militants again turned their attention from agriculture to attacking NATO and Afghan forces.
Afghanistan readies for Kandahar 'operation'
Iraq vote winner asserts right to form government
The leader of the top vote-getting coalition in Iraq's inconclusive March 7 elections insisted his bloc still has the right to form the next government despite an alliance forged this week between two rival Shiite groups.
'Big ideas' key to US surge success in Iraq: Petraeus
The US troop surge succeeded in Iraq because the army embraced new ideas about waging war against insurgents, focusing on winning the trust of local people, top commander General David Petraeus said.
Fear of bloodshed in Iraq as Iran-backed bloc tries to take power
Two months after landmark elections, the State of Law party of Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister, and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which is dominated by Moqtadr al-Sadr, the radical cleric, announced that they would jointly form a new government. The deal was apparently put together with the help of the Iranian Embassy in Baghdad, which maintains close ties with Shia political parties. They expect to have a narrow majority in parliament.
Iraq vote winner asserts right to form government
The leader of Iraq's top vote-getting coalition in the inconclusive March elections is saying that his bloc still has the right to form the next government. Ayad Allawi returned to Iraq after touring the Mideast since his cross-sectarian Iraqiya party eked out a slim lead in the balloting. He met with the heads of other political parties late on Thursday.
Pakistani Taliban Are Said to Expand Alliances
The Pakistani Taliban, which American investigators suspect were behind the attempt to bomb Times Square, have in recent years combined forces with Al Qaeda and other groups, threatening to extend their reach and ambitions, Western diplomats, intelligence officials and experts say.
Pakistani Taliban: NY bomb attempt a 'brave' act
The Pakistani Taliban on Thursday denied any role in the botched car bombing in Times Square but praised the suspect for a "brave job," as New York authorities pressed him on his claims of terrorist training.
Waqar Hasan
US Citizen
Training in Pakistan before arrest
At most this very basic behavioral profile can generate leads. Old fashion detective work like we witnessed only after the failed bombing in Times Square is still required.
This undated image, obtained from orkut.com on May 4, 2010, shows Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani-American who is suspected as the driver of a bomb-laden SUV into New York's Time Square on May 1. (REUTERS/Courtesy of Orkut.com)
For the second time since Christmas, the federal government has failed to prevent a terrorist attack against the United States. Only terrorist bomb making incompetence has saved the lives of an unknown number of Americans. Hopefully, US agencies with the responsibility to protect its citizens will correct their incompetence before terrorists fix their own.
Here is the latest update on the massacre that could have occurred in New York.
30-year-old Pakistani American Charged with Terrorism in Failed NY Bombing
U.S. authorities have charged a Pakistani-born U.S. citizen with terrorism related charges in connection to the failed Times Square bombing. Thirty-year-old Faisal Shahzad was charged Tuesday in a five-count complaint, one day after he was arrested while trying to leave New York on a flight for Dubai. Authorities say he has admitted to receiving explosives training in Pakistan.
U.S. Said to Learn Shahzad on Plane 30 Minutes Before Departure
Shahzad was placed on a no-fly list yesterday afternoon. The airline didn’t update its list before allowing Shahzad on the plane, according to the person, who couldn’t be identified because the matter is still under investigation. U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents learned Shahzad was on the plane when the airline presented a mandatory passenger manifest to U.S. officials just before take off, the person said.
Faisal Shahzad: Who is the Times Square terror suspect?
The 30-year-old Pakistani-American at the center of the botched Times Square car bomb plot was known in his neighborhood as a mysterious loner who kept odd hours and "always looked on edge," neighbors said Tuesday.
Inside Terror Training Camp Tied to Bomb Suspect
CBS News correspondent Mandy Clark reports Pakistani police have arrested at least two people in Karachi, Pakistan. One of them, Tauseef Ahmed, is believed to have traveled to the U.S. two months ago to meet with Faisal Shahzad. CBS News has also learned that Shahzad may have spent at least four months training at a terrorist camp - raided in early March by Pakistani forces. The camp is affiliated with Pakistan's Taliban, the group that claimed responsibility for the botched attack in Times Square. Its leader Hakimullah Mehsud threatened, "The time is very near when our fighters ....will attack the American states."
The scene at the corner of W 45th St. and Broadway in the heart of Times Square, where a car was found last night, that contained cans of flammable liquid and other explosive devices. (NY Daily News)
‘Very Lucky,’ Mayor Says, After Bomb
A crude car bomb of propane, gasoline and fireworks was discovered in a smoking Nissan Pathfinder in the heart of Times Square on Saturday evening, prompting the evacuation of thousands of tourists and theatergoers on a warm and busy night. Although the device had apparently started to detonate, there was no explosion, and early on Sunday the authorities were still seeking a suspect and motive.
Mayor: New York 'Lucky' Car Bomb Did Not Explode
Authorities in New York City are viewing security camera footage and examining other evidence to determine who may have tried to set off a car bomb in the Times Square entertainment district.
'Very Lucky': Cops Comb Foiled Times Sq. Bomb Clues
A t-shirt vendor, a Vietnam veteran, saw something suspicious in New York's Times Square Saturday evening -- smoke coming from an unoccupied SUV -- so he alerted police. The tip led police to find the Nissan Pathfinder contained what New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to called an "amateurish"-looking bomb and what Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano told ABC News' "This Week" might have been part of a "one-off" attack.
Echoes of 2007 London attack in Times Square car bomb
An illegally parked car packed with propane gas cylinders and cannisters filled with petrol attached to a crude homemade detonator. That was Times Square, New York, last night. It was Haymarket, London, three years ago.
Napolitano: NYC car bomb is 'a potential terrorist attack'
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano took to the Sunday talk shows this morning, ostensibly to talk about efforts to protect the Gulf Coast from a potential ecological disaster due to a massive oil slick headed for land. However, Napolitano instead found herself talking about the apparent failed car bombing Saturday night in New York's Times Square.
Times Square Bomb Scare: 'Very Deadly' Blast Averted
Violence is back with a vengeance in Iraq - explosions in Baghdad have become common again and secret torture chambers are fuelling the cycle of hatred. But is the current political stalemate responsible?
The ‘Wanted Dead’ Option in the War on Terror
You can hardly blame Iraq’s beleaguered prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, for trumpeting the killing of the two leaders of Al Qaeda in Iraq last month as a lethal blow to the local terrorist franchise.
Turmoil in Iraq threatens US withdrawal plans
Iraq continues to be embroiled in its messy post-election coalition-building process. It has become so messy that the US may well be rethinking its withdrawal plans, and particularly its withdrawal of all combat troops at the end of August.
Petraeus: Tough times ahead for south Afghanistan
Tough times are ahead for Kandahar in southern Afghanistan where thousands of U.S., NATO and Afghan forces are gearing up for the latest offensive of the war, a top U.S. general said in an unannounced visit there Friday.
US Army captain becomes king in Afghanistan
In the U.S. Army, Casey Thoreen is just a 30-year-old captain. Around here, he's known as the "King of Maiwand" district — testimony to the fact that without the young captain and a fat international wallet, local government here as in much of the insurgency-ravaged south could not function at all.
U.S. drone attacks in Pakistan get mixed response
The aircraft target Al Qaeda and the Taliban and minimize civilian deaths, U.S. officials say. Many Pakistanis decry them as indiscriminate; others approve, even some who have lost relatives.
Two Charged With Supporting Al Qaeda
Two former Brooklyn residents have been indicted on charges that they conspired to provide al Qaeda with material support, including computer advice. Wesam El-Hanafi, 33 years old, and Sabirhan Hasanoff, 34, were charged in a one-count indictment unsealed Friday with conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization.
New York City Police Discover Car Bomb in Times Square
New York City authorities say they found a potentially powerful bomb in a vehicle in Times Square late Saturday. Swift action by police and city residents averted what could have been a deadly car bombing attack.
Members of Syria-based Iraqi factions attend the Baath Party's first public meeting in Damascus, dedicated to "the national Iraqi resistance." (AFP/Louai Beshara)
It is hard to determine who will make a greater come-from-behind, the Taliban or the Baath Party. Saddam's outlawed cadre has been used as a political straw man by the Shiite-dominated and Iranian-allied democratic Iraqi government since 2009. Recently, the Baath held their first public meeting in Damascus calling for a reunification of the party. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki blamed the Al Qaeda in Iraq bombing campaign in Baghdad on the Baath in Syria, a claim the Baathists denied. Maliki's accusations deteriorated relations with Syria. It will be interesting to see Maliki's reaction to this Baathist convention in Syria as he continues his attempt to steal the parliamentary election.
Saddam's loyalists in Syria blast US
Supporters of Iraq's late dictator Saddam Hussein gathered in Damascus Thursday to denounce the U.S. "occupation" of Iraq and demand that his loyalists unite. About 500 Saddam loyalists, including members of his outlawed Baath Party, vowed to continue their support to what they called "Iraqi national resistance," a term they widely use to describe Iraqi insurgents attacking only U.S. forces.
Iraq's banned Baath holds first public meeting in Syria
Iraq's banned Baath party, booted out of power in the 2003 US-led invasion, held its first public meeting in the Syrian capital on Thursday. "We have launched negotiations to reunite the party," Ghazwan Qubaissi, the number two in a wing led by Mohammed Yunes al-Ahmad, a former governor of Mosul under now executed dictator and Baath chief Saddam Hussein, told AFP.
Although many would like to take credit for the alleged success of the Iraq COIN campaign, a simple Google search reveals some of the earliest advocates for a tribal engagement strategy. The following is an excerpt from an 8 July2003 Brookings Institution article:
How can the coalition and the new Iraqi government best rein in tribal power? There is no alternative to military action in cases of hard-core resistance, such as Fallujah. Yet it should be possible to control most local tribal challenges as the old regime usually did, simply by effective policing and nonviolent displays of force (although the regime also employed extreme violence to put down political opposition). Nevertheless, the most potent vehicle for central government control is the distribution of government services and other benefits. The Iraqi countryside desperately needs new infrastructure, as well as many basic services and goods, such as purified water, treated sewage, roads, electricity, schools, hospitals, agricultural machinery, fertilizers, irrigation systems, and even high-quality seeds. Within a few months the central government in Baghdad, whether it is still largely run by the coalition forces or by Iraqis, should be able to provide all this and more—even to the most remote villages. At that point, tribal shaykhs will have to work with the government or risk being overthrown by their own people.
As we constantly state on this blog, if you understand the culture the strategy writes itself. You can read the full article, "The Iraqi Tribes and the Post-Saddam System" here.
Anyone believing that a "clear, hold, build" strategy is the key to a new democratic Afghanistan needs to watch this Frontline special on bacha bazi in Afghanistan.
Just for clarification, the ISAF mission is far more realistic than some of the expectations from civilian COINdinistas.
From ISAF's page:
ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conducts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate improvements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environment for sustainable stability that is observable to the population.
I have no idea what that actually means but it is ambiguous enough that anything shy of a civil war can be defined as mission success.
Here is the full episode documenting the starting point in the uphill battle for social reform in Afghanistan.
If we look at the bell curve chart of violence in Iraq, we notice that the steep rise began when the Mahdi Army initiated a genocidal campaign with the support of Iraqi forces against the Sunnis. This occurred during the goverment formation period in 2006. We also notice the steep drop in violence just after Muqtada al Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to stand down.
Due to the actions of a "defeated" and "decapitated" Al Qaeda in Iraq, Muqtada al Sadr has called for the return of the Mahdi Army.
The most deadly attacks targeted Shi'ite neighborhoods and mosques in Baghdad's Sadr city, where a movement led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is based.
Sadr released a statement late Friday calling on his followers to form brigades within the police force and army to defend their places of worship, homes and communities. Sadr said they must not rely on U.S. forces in Iraq to defend themselves.
Anti-U.S. cleric offers Iraq government help after attacks
Anti-U.S. Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr offered to help the Iraqi government maintain security after bomb attacks against Shi'ites killed 56 people in Baghdad in an apparent backlash by Sunni insurgents.
Sadr's offer of the use of his paramilitary Mehdi Army late Friday was made at a sensitive time for Iraq following a March election that produced no clear winner and left a power vacuum for insurgents to exploit.
Iraq govt says Sadr security help not needed
The Iraqi government said on Saturday that an offer by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to help boost security at strategic sites was unnecessary, in the wake of anti-Shiite attacks in Baghdad.
A paper displays photographs of a man the Iraqi government claims to be al-Qaida leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi at a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, April 19, 2010. (Xinhua/AFP Photo)
Two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq are killed in raid
The two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq were slain in a U.S. airstrike over the weekend, a decisive tactical victory for American and Iraqi forces and one that provides Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with additional political leverage at a crucial time.
Iraq announces killing of another senior al-Qaida leader
Iraq announced Tuesday the killing of another senior leader of al-Qaida group in the country, an official television reported. "Iraqi security forces killed the terrorist Ahmed al-Obaidi, also known as Abu Suhaib, the military leader for Qaida terrorist organization in the provinces of Nineveh, Kirkuk and Salahudin," the state-run television of Iraqia, quoted Mohammed al-Askari media advisor of the Iraqi Defence Ministry as saying.
Secret prison revealed in Baghdad
Hundreds of Sunni men disappeared for months into a secret Baghdad prison under the jurisdiction of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's military office, where many were routinely tortured until the country's Human Rights Ministry gained access to the facility, Iraqi officials say.
Iraq judicial panel orders recount
An Iraqi judicial panel on Monday ordered a manual recount of about 2.5 million ballots cast in Baghdad in last month's national elections, an action requested by Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's alliance, which had filed allegations of vote fraud.
In a shocking display of alleged competency, Iraqi security forces killed the top two leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq according to United States Forces - Iraq. General Odierno stated “the death of these terrorists is potentially the most significant blow to al-Qaeda in Iraq since the beginning of the insurgency,” which I would have to disagree. I think that whole Awakening / Sons of Iraq movement which was part of "the Surge" had a greater impact.
Notice the photos Maliki held up as "proof" the two al Qaeda leaders were killed. My understanding was that Iraqis spoke Arabic.
Meanwhile, as U.S. Forces were high-fiving each other over the successful Iraqi forces mission, Prime Minister Maliki continued his campaign to legally steal the Iraqi election as an Iraqi court ordered a manual recount of the ballots in Baghdad.
I encourage anyone still holding the belief that modern U.S. COIN doctrine can create a self-sustaining Jeffersonian democracy in Afghanistan to google the term in the title. PBS Frontline will air an episode covering bacha bazi on April 20th. Here is a short clip.
Iran maintains that its positive influence in Iraq is mistaken as interference but when Iraqi politicians met in Tehran to discuss the formation of a new government, Iran's power was unmistakeable. Inside Iraq discusses Iran's influence in Iraq.
Iraq PM: Sunni-backed bloc must be in govt
Iraq's Shiite prime minister said Friday the Sunni-backed political coalition that is headed by his archrival and won the most seats in last month's parliamentary election must be included in the country's new government.
Suicide bombers kill 30 in Pakistan
Two suicide bombers attacked a refugee camp in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 30 people and injuring more than 70 in what appeared to be retaliation for the military's latest offensive against Taliban insurgents in the volatile tribal areas' Orakzai region.
Pakistan: Deadly Attack at Hospital
A suicide bomber attacked a hospital emergency room filled with Shiite mourners on Friday in Quetta, killing eight people, including a journalist and two police officers. Journalists were at the hospital covering the aftermath of the shooting of a prominent Shiite bank manager, who was attacked earlier in the day. The emergency room was full of his friends and relatives when the bomber struck, the police said, in what they called a sectarian attack.
Taliban targets U.S. contractors working on projects in Afghanistan
The Taliban has begun regularly targeting U.S. government contractors in southern Afghanistan, stepping up use of a tactic that is rattling participating firms and could undermine development projects intended to stem the insurgency, according to U.S. officials.
Osama bin Laden's Facebook account disabled
Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's profile on social networking website Facebook has been shut down, after a security expert raised the issue with the website's U.S. owners.
A Kyrgyz interim leader says US base unjustified
A top official in Kyrgyzstan's interim government told The Associated Press on Saturday that a U.S. air base supporting operations in Afghanistan is "not justified," the first sign of significant divisions over the facility.
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (R) talks with Iraq's President Jalal Talabani (L) at Royal Palace in Riyadh April 11, 2010. REUTERS
Iraq says Saudi backs unity government
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on a visit to Saudi Arabia on Sunday said King Abdullah expressed his wish for a government comprising all Iraq's politicians after an indecisive March 7 general election.
Allawi's secularism may not fly in today's Iraq
In a nation where religion and politics have become nearly inseparable, can a secular politician be prime minister of Iraq? The question has moved to the heart of Iraq's complex politics after a coalition led by secular Shiite Ayad Allawi emerged as the biggest vote winner in last month's elections, winning 91 of the legislature's 325 seats, edging out a bloc led by the incumbent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by only two seats.
Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, threatens to block Nato offensive
The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has cast doubt over Nato’s planned summer offensive against the Taliban in the southern province of Kandahar, as more than 10,000 American troops pour in for the fight.
Afghan Officials: NATO Troops Kill 4 on Bus
Afghan officials say NATO troops opened fire on a bus in southern Afghanistan Monday, killing at least four people and wounding 18 others.
Pakistan: 41 militants, 2 soldiers die in fighting
More than 100 militants armed with rockets and automatic weapons attacked two security checkpoints in northwestern Pakistan on Monday, sparking intense fighting that left at least 41 insurgents and two soldiers dead, officials said.
Karzai tours with McChrystal after U.S. feud
Afghan President Hamid Karzai called on Taliban "brothers" to lay down their arms, as he appeared with NATO's commander in a show of solidarity aimed at putting a quarrel with the West behind him.
Airstrikes kill 10 militants in NW Pakistan
Fighter jets pounded militant hide-outs in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday, killing 10 suspected insurgents as part of a military operation that has eliminated more than 300 fighters in the last three weeks, an official said.
Iraq PM's bloc says fraud may have cost it 750,000 votes
The coalition of Iraq's incumbent prime minister, which came second in inconclusive March elections, said Sunday up to 750,000 votes had been tainted by fraud and it was seeking a recount in five provinces.
Yemen not going after radical US-born cleric
Yemeni forces are not going after a radical U.S.-born cleric who has reportedly been added to the CIA's list of targets to be killed or captured, the foreign minister said Saturday. The United States has not handed over evidence to support allegations that Anwar al-Awlaki is recruiting for al-Qaida's offshoot in the impoverished country on the southern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, the minister said.
Iyad Allawi: If Maliki tries to form a government in Iraq, chaos will ensue
In an interview this week with Ned Parker of the Los Angeles Times, former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqiya alliance edged out Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s party in national elections last month, warned of potential chaos if he is denied the right to form the country’s next government.
Abu Ghraib MP unit to return to Iraq
The Army Reserve unit tarnished by the Abu Ghraib detainee-abuse scandal has been mobilized to return to Iraq in its first deployment since photographs of naked, humiliated prisoners surfaced more than six years ago, the Army said Friday.
U.S. halts troop flights from Kyrgyz base
The fate of the Manas base, a central cog in the U.S.-led war effort in Afghanistan, has been thrown into question since the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's government.
Afghan officials say Pakistan's arrest of Taliban leader threatens peace talks
Senior Afghan officials are now criticizing as counterproductive the arrest in Pakistan this year of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the No. 2 Taliban official. Its main effect, the Afghan officials say, has been to derail Afghan-led efforts to secure peace talks with the Taliban, making that peace ever more remote.
Pakistan jet fighters kill 42 Islamist militants
Pakistani jet fighters bombed a meeting of an Islamist group blamed for attacking NATO supply convoys in a northern tribal area bordering Afghanistan, killing at least 42 militants.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq group claims embassy bombings
A militant group linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq has said it was behind Sunday's triple bombings in Baghdad which killed 40 people near foreign embassies.
Troops kill 15 militants in NW Pakistan: officials
Pakistani troops killed at least 15 militants in a gunfight after an attack on a checkpoint in a restive tribal area bordering Afghanistan, officials said Friday. The clash took place in Bezot Khel village in Orakzai tribal district overnight, where troops are hunting Taliban insurgents.
Iran minister: US hikers 'had intelligence links'
Iran's intelligence minister has said there is evidence that three US hikers it is holding had links to intelligence agencies, according to Iran's Press TV.
For whatever reason there is a debate over whether or not the Surge succeeded. Zen Pundit has probably the best coverage while Abu Muqawama is the one that picked the fight with the blogosphere. I will let Tom Ricks start this one off.
Now let expand on one of the very important points he brings up in the beginning. The new strategy for Iraq was announce by then-President Bush. Before the US press started calling it "the surge" it was known as "The New Way Forward in Iraq."
The President's New Iraq Strategy Is Rooted In Six Fundamental Elements:
1. Let the Iraqis lead; 2. Help Iraqis protect the population; 3. Isolate extremists; 4. Create space for political progress; 5. Diversify political and economic efforts; and 6. Situate the strategy in a regional approach.
Number 4 is the specific one mentioned by Ricks. But the "New Way Forward" is not the only officially stated means to measure success.
1. Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review.
2. Enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification.
3. Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources of the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner.
4. Enacting and implementing legislation on procedures to form semi-autonomous regions.
5. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing an Independent High Electoral Commission, provincial elections law, provincial council authorities, and a date for provincial elections.
6. Enacting and implementing legislation addressing amnesty.
7. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing a strong militia disarmament program to ensure that such security forces are accountable only to the central government and loyal to the Constitution of Iraq.
8. Establishing supporting political, media, economic, and services committees in support of the Baghdad security plan.
9. Providing three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations.
10. Providing Iraqi commanders with all authorities to execute this plan and to make tactical and operational decisions, in consultation with U.S. commanders, without political intervention, to include the authority to pursue all extremists, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias.
11. Ensuring that the Iraqi security forces are providing even-handed enforcement of the law.
12. Ensuring that, according to President Bush, Prime Minister Maliki said “the Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation.”
13. Reducing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq and eliminating militia control of local security.
14. Establishing all of the planned joint security stations in neighborhoods across Baghdad.
15. Increasing the number of Iraqi security forces’ units capable of operating independently.
16. Ensuring that the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature are protected.
17. Allocating and spending $10 billion in Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects, including delivery of essential services, on an equitable basis.
18. Ensuring that Iraq’s political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi security forces.
Now that we have the official "metrics" from the then-President and the official means of measuring success that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, the debate can continue.
My personal assessment is that the war is still going on. We simply cannot say whether it was a success yet. If there is any question to answer it would be this one.
Have any troops been authorized weekend leave in Baghdad? Saigon was safe enough for R&R.
Rescuers search for survivors at the scene of a bomb attack in central Baghdad, Iraq, Tuesday, April 6, 2010. Massive explosions hit apartment buildings across Baghdad killing at least 34 and wounding more than 100 in the latest sign that Iraq's fragile security could dissolve in the chaos of the country's unresolved election. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)
Baghdad Explosions Kill 28
Iraqi officials say several explosions have rocked central Baghdad, killing at least 28 people and wounding more than 75 others. The multiple bombings destroyed several apartment buildings and a restaurant in the Allawi district Tuesday. Media reports say people are trapped under the rubble.
Explosions hit Baghdad apartments, 34 dead
Massive bombs hit apartment buildings across Baghdad on Tuesday, killing at least 34 people and wounding more than 100 in the latest sign that Iraq's fragile security could dissolve in the chaos of the country's unresolved election.
6 explosions in Baghdad kill at least 28, wound 98
"The latest reports said that a total of 28 people were killed and 98 others injured by the massive blasts in Baghdad this morning," the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity. He said six explosions hit the Iraqi capital in the morning. The first blast started at about 8:45 a.m.(0545 GMT) in the Chikok area in Baghdad northern neighborhood of Kadhmiya, causing the collapse of two residential buildings, the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
About 10 minutes later, another massive blast destroyed a third building in the Shula neighborhood in northwestern Baghdad, the source said, adding that another powerful explosion occurred in a fourth building in the southwestern Shurta al-Rabia neighborhood. A fifth explosion rocked the Hifa street in central Baghdad, the source said without giving further details about the incident, but said the bast was apparently carried out by a suicide bomber. The sixth explosion took place in the al-Amil neighborhood in southern Baghdad, the source said without giving further details.
It was a tragic weekend for Iraq. From the COIN/CT perspective, I thought it would be interesting to study the strategic impact of the two most recent events. Most important to notice will be the Baath connection. Explanation at the bottom.
Sunni Arabs who worked with the Americans as Sons of Iraq say they feel particularly vulnerable. "The Awakening people now are the easy targets for everyone," said Qais al-Jubouri, a tribal leader who worked with the U.S. military and the Iraqi military and government to forge reconciliation in his area of southern Baghdad. Jubouri, who won a seat in the next parliament, has been on the run since the issuance of an arrest warrant against him that he deemed politically motivated.
"The government targets us, and al-Qaeda targets us," he said. "The Americans are done with us, and they threw us under the bus. They lured us as friends, one by one."
Most of the 19 male victims were members of Iraqi security forces or of Awakening Councils, groups that now partner with American forces and are employed by the Iraqi government to protect Sunni neighborhoods, but whose members had once been allied with Sunni extremist groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia during fighting against American troops.
Five women were among the 25 killed, all linked to the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, known as the "Sons of Iraq" by the US army, which joined American and Iraqi forces in 2006 and 2007 to fight against Al-Qaeda and its supporters, leading to a dramatic fall in violence across the country.
The victims were all tied up and shot either in the head or in the chest. Seven other civilians discovered handcuffed in the village were freed.
The elections last month polarized the country, with Shiite Prime Minister Nouri Maliki refusing to accept that an alliance led by rival Iyad Allawi, favored by Sunnis, had won more parliamentary seats than his bloc had. Some Iraqi security officers, U.S. military personnel and Western officials are expressing concern that Al Qaeda in Iraq could reestablish itself on Baghdad's rural perimeter and cause havoc before the next government is formed.
The attack Friday appeared to be aimed at intimidating the Sunni population. Residents of Hawr Rajab said the attackers, wearing American-style military uniforms, arrived in the afternoon. They seized an abandoned home, and one of the men, pretending to be an interpreter, told villagers in a mix of English and Arabic that the "American soldiers" were on a mission.
At least 58 people were killed in a three-day period, according to security sources and Iraqi media, including at least 30 people Sunday morning when three car bombs detonated in the capital near Iranian, Egyptian and German embassy buildings; three people in a separate car bombing in the restive northern city of Mosul; and 25 villagers who had been tied up and executed in a shadowy, early morning attack Saturday on a Sunni village on the southern outskirts of Baghdad.
Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, told the AFP news agency that the incident resembled previous attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq, but it was too soon to be certain as investigations were ongoing.
"They bear the same marks of previous attacks, in the timing, the targeting, the simultaneous attacks on different targets in different places to have maximum impact," he said.
Baghdad hit by triple blasts
The Baath Connection
Any potential gains from the recent election are slowly slipping away. One of the Sons of Iraq leaders who entered politics and won a seat in the new Iraqi government is now a fugitive running from the government he fought for against al Qaeda in Iraq. The Iraqi government also accused al Qaeda in Iraq and the Baath as being responsible for the embassy bombings. Currently Ali Faisal al Lami is attempting to disqualify members of Ayad Allawi's coalition through de-baathification. The shadow of Saddam's political apparatus casts a dark shadow on Iraq today. It is still too early to definitively state that a civil war will break out. I fear that a few more instances of political exclusion of the Sunnis, terrorist attacks against the government, and indiscriminate government security operations will bring Iraq to the brink yet again.
In spite of what many headlines have said, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi did not win the recent election. More importantly, a recent Federal Supreme Court decision stating that political coalitions can be formed AFTER the election has in essence negated the results. Prior to this decision Iyad Allawi's secular Iraqiyah coalition would have formed the new Iraqi government.
Below are some highlights as to what is really occurring in Iraq's post-election period.
Ayad Allawi, leader of the bloc that won the most seats in Iraq's parliamentary election, lashed out at Iran on Tuesday, accusing Tehran of interfering in the battle to form a new government in Baghdad.
Mr. Allawi's cross-sectarian political bloc secured a narrow victory over Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-dominated slate in the March 7 vote, potentially upending the lock on power that the country's majority Shiites have had since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. But Mr. Allawi didn't win a majority of seats in the 325-member parliament, and is battling the incumbent to lock in enough coalition partners to form a stable government.
Representatives from Mr. Maliki's State of Law slate and from the two most influential parties inside a Shiite umbrella slate that finished third all recently visited Tehran at the same time. Iran has exerted significant political and economic power in Iraq since shortly after Mr. Hussein's ouster, when Shiite Iraqis rose to power.
Tariq al-Hashimi, the Iraqi vice president and prominent leader in Al-Iraqiya List led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi which won the legislative elections held on 7 March, has stated that Al-Iraqiya faced major challenges like "disqualification and Debathification" and also "the campaigns of distortion and tampering with the voters' will." He pointed out that his bloc was open to all the political forces to ally themselves with it but did not refer to an alliance with the State of Law Coalition [SLC] which is led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki who rejected the results of the elections. Al- Iraqiya List won 91 seats, two seats more than Al-Maliki's list.
Six winning candidates in Iraq elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats – which would cost secular politician Iyad Allawi's bloc its narrow victory – if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday.
Maliki's State of Law (SOL) coalition is negotiating a possible union with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, to form the largest bloc in Iraq's next parliament. The Sadrists' strong election showing makes Sadr a potential kingmaker.
An alliance between the two major Shi'ite parties could push former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition, the top vote-getter in Iraq's March 7 election, to the sidelines. That could anger many Sunnis who voted for Allawi and deepen Iraq's sectarian divide.
Tehran was interfering in the election process in Iraq, where his Iraqiya bloc won 91 seats in the 325-member Council of Representatives, two more than Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance, he told the BBC.
“Iran is interfering quite heavily and this is worrying,” Mr Allawi told the broadcaster, accusing the Islamic republic of inviting all the major parties to Tehran apart from his bloc.
“They have invited everybody – but they haven’t invited us – to Tehran,” he said.
Asked directly whether Iran wanted to stop him becoming prime minister, Mr Allawi responded: “I think so, they made it very clear ... that they have a red line.
“We are concerned about respecting the will of the Iraqi people.”
Six winning candidates in Iraq's parliamentary elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats — which would cost secular politician Ayad Allawi's bloc its narrow victory — if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday.
Due to professional, academic, and personal commitments I will no longer post the Morning Readbook. For those that need an alternative I recommend the Small Wars Journal Roundup.
Below are the search terms and websites I would use to generate the morning readbook.
Search Terms - The country of choice generates the widest selection of photos. The exception would be anything related to CT in the United States. In that case I would search "homeland"
SAMPLE -
"Iraq"
Pictures of premier-elect Iyad Allawi (L) and outgoing premier Nuri al-Malaki are seen on the front page of an Iraqi newspaper in Baghdad on March 27. Maliki, whose bloc came second in Iraq's general election, sharply criticised the UN envoy to Baghdad on Sunday over his inaction on vote fraud allegations. (AFP/Ali al-Saadi)
I would embed the latest news bulletin at end the readbook.
SAMPLE
Also, I would search through any of their recent programs or segments to see if there was one of interest. There are many detailed stories that never make mainstream headlines but are very applicable to the current COIN/CT debates. Below is a perfect example.
Final Notes -
I plan on posting two more segments in the Basics of COIN series. The next one will deal with Chaotic and Complex scenarios.
As far as the current COIN/CT conflict are concerned, I am waiting to see if Maliki will actually step down from power and what the new Iraqi government will look like when it finally forms. Afghanistan is far too early to make a call without guessing.
World Digest: Afghanistan's Karzai talks to representatives of insurgent faction
President Hamid Karzai held talks in Kabul on Monday with representatives of one of the key insurgent groups battling his government, as the president continues his high-stakes push for an eventual reconciliation among all of Afghanistan's warring factions.
U.S. Officials Meet Iraqi Leader After Recount Call
The two top American officials in Iraq met Monday with Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki after his endorsement over the weekend of a recount in the parliamentary elections incited fears of a political crisis in a country not accustomed to peaceful transfers of power.
Iraq election front-runners court possible allies
With the complete results in Iraq's election just days away, there were signs Monday the two front runners were reaching out to other political parties, signaling the start of the jockeying to form the next ruling coalition.
U.S. judge orders release of Guantanamo detainee
A federal judge ordered on Monday that a man accused of having ties to some of the hijackers in the September 11, 2001, attacks, be released from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Netanyahu disrupted at Aipac gala
Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has been disrupted in Washington DC by activists protesting against Israeli policy in the Middle East.
An Iraqi soldier stands guard in front of a poster of former Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi in Baghdad. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's calls for a recount of votes from Iraq's polls were on Sunday rebuffed by its election commission, amid a tight race to form the biggest bloc in parliament. (AFP/Ali al-Saadi)
Prime minister warns of violence, but election board rejects call for recount
As new results from this month's election continued to show a neck-and-neck race, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday issued a strongly worded warning that without a nationwide recount, the country could descend into violence. The electoral commission quickly rejected the request, saying a recount would be neither necessary nor feasible.
Iraq’s Premier Endorses a Recount of the Vote
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki endorsed the mounting calls for a recount of Iraq’s parliamentary election, as the latest results on Sunday showed his main competitor with a slight lead.
Drone strike kills eight in North Waziristan
A US drone aircraft fired two missiles into an al Qaeda and Taliban hideout in North Waziristan on Sunday, killing eight terrorists, Pakistani intelligence officials said.
Afghan bomb attacks kill at least 12 civilians
A suicide bomber killed 10 civilians on Sunday when he detonated his explosives near a crowd in southern Afghanistan, while a roadside bomb in the east killed two others, officials said.
Analysts say US-Israel Relationship Scarred by Settlements Dispute
Middle East analysts are expressing concern a disagreement between the United States and Israel over Jewish settlements in occupied East Jerusalem will leave scars in the relationship and may raise the risk of Israeli military strikes against Iran's nuclear program.
The Anti-Defamation League, known for defending Israel's interests in the United States by raising antisemitism awareness, attacked General David Petraeus earlier this week. Out of all the statements to come out of Israel's attempt to bully the U.S., this action shocked me the most.
*NOTE- As with most counter-arguements devoid of any fact or intellectual merit, to avoid the "hate card" I will say up front that I am not antisemitic. I simply do not place the security of any nation before the security and welfare of my own.
Gen. Petraeus has simply erred in linking the challenges faced by the U.S. and coalition forces in the region to a solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and blaming extremist activities on the absence of peace and the perceived U.S. favoritism for Israel. This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive.
Whenever the Israeli-Arab conflict is made a focal point, Israel comes to be seen as the problem. If only Israel would stop settlements, if only Israel would talk with Hamas, if only Israel would make concessions on refugees, if only it would share Jerusalem, everything in the region would then fall into line.
This is propaganda in its purest form; truth twisted to advance a political agenda. There are only four sentences in which I quoted so I will address each individual one.
Gen. Petraeus has simply erred in linking the challenges faced by the U.S. and coalition forces in the region to a solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and blaming extremist activities on the absence of peace and the perceived U.S. favoritism for Israel.
I would like the ADL to identify an insurgent or terrorist group that does not link the challenges faced by the U.S. forces to perceived U.S.
This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive.
This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive for Israel. Unfortunately, it is rooted in more fact that this statement.
Whenever the Israeli-Arab conflict is made a focal point, Israel comes to be seen as the problem.
Suffocating a man in the hotel of a foreign country using a falsified passport of an individual belonging to a supposed "ally" will add to this perspective.
If only Israel would stop settlements, if only Israel would talk with Hamas, if only Israel would make concessions on refugees, if only it would share Jerusalem, everything in the region would then fall into line.
These are three requests being asked by nearly every nation in the world, all rejected by Israel.
In order to better understand our takfiri enemy, we need to understand the messages that resonate with a moderate audience. It it their solutions that are extreme, not always the perspectives. The last word goes to al Qaeda as they demonstrate on video how they manipulate American policies to remain a relevant opposition terrorist group.
Posts
