It was a tragic weekend for Iraq. From the COIN/CT perspective, I thought it would be interesting to study the strategic impact of the two most recent events. Most important to notice will be the Baath connection. Explanation at the bottom.
The Executions
Gunmen in military garb kill at least 24 in Sunni area south of Baghdad
Sunni Arabs who worked with the Americans as Sons of Iraq say they feel particularly vulnerable. "The Awakening people now are the easy targets for everyone," said Qais al-Jubouri, a tribal leader who worked with the U.S. military and the Iraqi military and government to forge reconciliation in his area of southern Baghdad. Jubouri, who won a seat in the next parliament, has been on the run since the issuance of an arrest warrant against him that he deemed politically motivated.
"The government targets us, and al-Qaeda targets us," he said. "The Americans are done with us, and they threw us under the bus. They lured us as friends, one by one."
25 Members of Sunni Family Killed Near Baghdad
Most of the 19 male victims were members of Iraqi security forces or of Awakening Councils, groups that now partner with American forces and are employed by the Iraqi government to protect Sunni neighborhoods, but whose members had once been allied with Sunni extremist groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia during fighting against American troops.
Iraqi village killers 'posed as US soldiers'
Five women were among the 25 killed, all linked to the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, known as the "Sons of Iraq" by the US army, which joined American and Iraqi forces in 2006 and 2007 to fight against Al-Qaeda and its supporters, leading to a dramatic fall in violence across the country.
The victims were all tied up and shot either in the head or in the chest. Seven other civilians discovered handcuffed in the village were freed.
Killings in Iraq raise fears of renewed sectarian violence
The elections last month polarized the country, with Shiite Prime Minister Nouri Maliki refusing to accept that an alliance led by rival Iyad Allawi, favored by Sunnis, had won more parliamentary seats than his bloc had. Some Iraqi security officers, U.S. military personnel and Western officials are expressing concern that Al Qaeda in Iraq could reestablish itself on Baghdad's rural perimeter and cause havoc before the next government is formed.
The attack Friday appeared to be aimed at intimidating the Sunni population. Residents of Hawr Rajab said the attackers, wearing American-style military uniforms, arrived in the afternoon. They seized an abandoned home, and one of the men, pretending to be an interpreter, told villagers in a mix of English and Arabic that the "American soldiers" were on a mission.
The Embassies
Deadly Bombs in Baghdad Point to Divisions
At least 58 people were killed in a three-day period, according to security sources and Iraqi media, including at least 30 people Sunday morning when three car bombs detonated in the capital near Iranian, Egyptian and German embassy buildings; three people in a separate car bombing in the restive northern city of Mosul; and 25 villagers who had been tied up and executed in a shadowy, early morning attack Saturday on a Sunni village on the southern outskirts of Baghdad.
Baghdad alert after embassy blasts
Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, told the AFP news agency that the incident resembled previous attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq, but it was too soon to be certain as investigations were ongoing.
"They bear the same marks of previous attacks, in the timing, the targeting, the simultaneous attacks on different targets in different places to have maximum impact," he said.
Baghdad hit by triple blasts
The Baath Connection
Any potential gains from the recent election are slowly slipping away. One of the Sons of Iraq leaders who entered politics and won a seat in the new Iraqi government is now a fugitive running from the government he fought for against al Qaeda in Iraq. The Iraqi government also accused al Qaeda in Iraq and the Baath as being responsible for the embassy bombings. Currently Ali Faisal al Lami is attempting to disqualify members of Ayad Allawi's coalition through de-baathification. The shadow of Saddam's political apparatus casts a dark shadow on Iraq today. It is still too early to definitively state that a civil war will break out. I fear that a few more instances of political exclusion of the Sunnis, terrorist attacks against the government, and indiscriminate government security operations will bring Iraq to the brink yet again.
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