In a previous posting, we highlighted the deteriorating security situation in Anbar province. We have also discussed the sense of abandonment tribal sheiks once allied with the U.S. are expressing.
For this post I would like to highlight one of the lessons from Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice by David Galula.
Galula discusses terrorism as a shortcut method of establishing a revolutionary environment. He notes the first step being "blind terrorism" as acts simply to bring attention to the cause. The second step he refers to as "selective terrorism" which involves the targeted killings of low-level government officials that interact with the population.
In Modern Warfare: A French View of Counterinsurgency, Roger Trinquier best sums up how the terrorist gains popular support.
The goal of modern warfare is control of the populace, and terrorism is a particularly appropriate weapon, since it aims directly at the inhabitant. In the street, at work, at home, the citizen lives continually under the threat of violent death. In the presence of this permanent danger surrounding him; he has the depressing feeling of being an isolated and defenseless target. The fact that public authority and the police are no longer capable of ensuring his security adds to his distress. He loses confidence in the state whose inherent mission it is to guarantee his safety. He is more and more drawn to the side of the terrorists, who alone are able to protect him.Both of these French officers are the godfathers for modern U.S. COIN doctrine. Both also shed light as to what is occurring now in Anbar Province.
We are witnessing an escalation in target selection. We can safely assess that terrorists have created a permissive environment among the population through intimidation and coercion. As this second insurgency begins to crystallize, we will soon find out if the Iraqis are in fact ready and capable of handling security in their country.
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