An Iraqi weeps as he walks away from the site of a suicide bombing in Baghdad on October 25. Baghdad's governor has blamed negligence or even collusion by the security forces for devastating twin suicide bombings that killed around 100 people in the heart of the capital.(AFP/Ahmad al-Rubaye) The October 2009 Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction Report has been released. I was looking forward to this release since we have been hearing mostly cheerleading from the theater. Unfortunately the report did not meet expectations. The entire U.S. government is shifting most of its effort and focus from Iraq to Afghanistan. Since this process is underway, nobody wants to be the one to reverse the movement. Tribal Sheikhs we have "abandoned" along with Sons of Iraq we have left out in the cold are the ones that were trying to warn us of al Qaeda in Iraq's pending comeback. Four building attacks in Baghdad later and the U.S. still calls it "mixed" results in security.
Highlights:
Security Concerns PersistObviously putting a positive spin on a negative story. The analysis is severely metrics heavy creating a false sense of progress. Attacks intended on producing mass casualties are down. If the underlying motives for violence remain then this is indicative of a change in tactics, not success in security.
The security situation remains mixed. This August, at least 456 people were killed in Iraq—the highest number of deaths from violence in 13 months. But in September, violent deaths dropped by more than half. October brought mass-casualty bombings to two provinces that had been relatively peaceful during 2008 and 2009: Kerbala and Anbar.
Violence Trending Down Overall
Notwithstanding the recent bombings, overall attacks have decreased 85% during the past 2 years, from 4,064 in August 2007 to 594 in August 2009. Further, there were only 19 ethnosectarian attacks this Ramadan, down a remarkable 98% from Ramadan 2006.3 Figure 1.2 charts the approximate number of Iraqi casualties by day from July 1, 2009, to October 20, 2009, noting some of the most significant security incidents that occurred over this 112-day span.
Internal Divisions Persist
In recent congressional testimony, MNF-I Commanding General Raymond Odierno noted that violent groups continue to try to exploit Iraq’s internal political tensions, especially in the northern regions. In an eff ort to ameliorate these tensions, MNF-I announced that it is discussing with the GOI and KRG the possibility of temporarily deploying U.S. forces to northern Iraq. These troops would operate alongside the ISF
and the Kurdish Peshmerga in the disputed territories along the internal Iraq-KRG boundary. According to MNF-I, joint patrols would begin in Ninewa province and then expand to areas around the city of Kirkuk.
Evolution of U.S. Military Presence
This quarter, U.S. troop redeployments continued pursuant to the schedule articulated by the President in February 2009. However, the Secretary of Defense stated that this schedule could be accelerated if conditions on the ground remain relatively stable. As of late September 2009, the United States had 11 Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) in Iraq (about 124,000 troops)—down from 14 BCTs (more than 143,500 troops) in January 2009.
ISF Manages Security
Iraqi forces are responsible for security operations across the country. As of October 1, 2009, the ISF numbers approximately 663,000 personnel, including 245,000 soldiers and more than 400,000 police. In July and August, the ISF successfully managed security for two mass Shia pilgrimages. However, Iraq’s Army and police forces continue to rely on U.S. forces for support in training, logistics, air operations, and intelligence.
You can download the full report here.
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