Of note:
None of this is good news for President Obama. He cannot pull American troops out of Iraq only to have the place collapse back into civil war and he has stated that he will not do so. For that reason, he can't refuse a request from PM Maliki to return the U.S. troops to Baghdad. But doing so will make it very difficult to stick to the 19-month troop drawdown he unveiled in February, and which may be necessary if he chooses to greatly increase American forces in Afghanistan. The president needs the Iraqis to be able to provide for their own security, thus allowing the drawdown. To use a diplomatic term of understatement, returning American troops to Iraqi cities, or even just Baghdad, would be "unhelpful" to that goal.What is interesting about this scenario is that breaking the withdrawal timeline will not only impact the transfer of equipment and troops to Afghanistan, Muqtada al Sadr will likely re-mobilize his militia. Just last Friday, Muqtada al Sadr demanded a "speedy withdrawal" of U.S. forces from Iraq. It looks like the worst case scenario is beginning to take form.
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