Non-Fictional Baathists Attempting Comeback

Members of Syria-based Iraqi factions attend the Baath Party's first public meeting in Damascus, dedicated to "the national Iraqi resistance." (AFP/Louai Beshara)


It is hard to determine who will make a greater come-from-behind, the Taliban or the Baath Party. Saddam's outlawed cadre has been used as a political straw man by the Shiite-dominated and Iranian-allied democratic Iraqi government since 2009. Recently, the Baath held their first public meeting in Damascus calling for a reunification of the party. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki blamed the Al Qaeda in Iraq bombing campaign in Baghdad on the Baath in Syria, a claim the Baathists denied. Maliki's accusations deteriorated relations with Syria. It will be interesting to see Maliki's reaction to this Baathist convention in Syria as he continues his attempt to steal the parliamentary election.



Saddam's loyalists in Syria blast US
Supporters of Iraq's late dictator Saddam Hussein gathered in Damascus Thursday to denounce the U.S. "occupation" of Iraq and demand that his loyalists unite. About 500 Saddam loyalists, including members of his outlawed Baath Party, vowed to continue their support to what they called "Iraqi national resistance," a term they widely use to describe Iraqi insurgents attacking only U.S. forces.


Iraq's banned Baath holds first public meeting in Syria
Iraq's banned Baath party, booted out of power in the 2003 US-led invasion, held its first public meeting in the Syrian capital on Thursday. "We have launched negotiations to reunite the party," Ghazwan Qubaissi, the number two in a wing led by Mohammed Yunes al-Ahmad, a former governor of Mosul under now executed dictator and Baath chief Saddam Hussein, told AFP.

Iraq 2003 Flashback: The Iraqi Tribes

Although many would like to take credit for the alleged success of the Iraq COIN campaign, a simple Google search reveals some of the earliest advocates for a tribal engagement strategy. The following is an excerpt from an 8 July 2003 Brookings Institution article:

How can the coalition and the new Iraqi government best rein in tribal power? There is no alternative to military action in cases of hard-core resistance, such as Fallujah. Yet it should be possible to control most local tribal challenges as the old regime usually did, simply by effective policing and nonviolent displays of force (although the regime also employed extreme violence to put down political opposition). Nevertheless, the most potent vehicle for central government control is the distribution of government services and other benefits. The Iraqi countryside desperately needs new infrastructure, as well as many basic services and goods, such as purified water, treated sewage, roads, electricity, schools, hospitals, agricultural machinery, fertilizers, irrigation systems, and even high-quality seeds. Within a few months the central government in Baghdad, whether it is still largely run by the coalition forces or by Iraqis, should be able to provide all this and more—even to the most remote villages. At that point, tribal shaykhs will have to work with the government or risk being overthrown by their own people.

As we constantly state on this blog, if you understand the culture the strategy writes itself. You can read the full article, "The Iraqi Tribes and the Post-Saddam System" here.

COIN vs. A Culture of Kid Rape

Anyone believing that a "clear, hold, build" strategy is the key to a new democratic Afghanistan needs to watch this Frontline special on bacha bazi in Afghanistan.

Just for clarification, the ISAF mission is far more realistic than some of the expectations from civilian COINdinistas.

From ISAF's page:

ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conducts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate improvements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environment for sustainable stability that is observable to the population.

I have no idea what that actually means but it is ambiguous enough that anything shy of a civil war can be defined as mission success.

Here is the full episode documenting the starting point in the uphill battle for social reform in Afghanistan.

Return of the Mahdi Army

Graphic courtesy of globalsecurity.org


If we look at the bell curve chart of violence in Iraq, we notice that the steep rise began when the Mahdi Army initiated a genocidal campaign with the support of Iraqi forces against the Sunnis. This occurred during the goverment formation period in 2006. We also notice the steep drop in violence just after Muqtada al Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to stand down.

Due to the actions of a "defeated" and "decapitated" Al Qaeda in Iraq, Muqtada al Sadr has called for the return of the Mahdi Army.


Iraqi Cleric Calls on Followers to Defend Against Attacks
An influential Shi'ite cleric in Iraq is urging followers to defend Shi'ite communities after a series of blasts killed at least 69 people throughout Iraq Friday.

The most deadly attacks targeted Shi'ite neighborhoods and mosques in Baghdad's Sadr city, where a movement led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is based. 

Sadr released a statement late Friday calling on his followers to form brigades within the police force and army to defend their places of worship, homes and communities.  Sadr said they must not rely on U.S. forces in Iraq to defend themselves.


Anti-U.S. cleric offers Iraq government help after attacks
Anti-U.S. Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr offered to help the Iraqi government maintain security after bomb attacks against Shi'ites killed 56 people in Baghdad in an apparent backlash by Sunni insurgents.

Sadr's offer of the use of his paramilitary Mehdi Army late Friday was made at a sensitive time for Iraq following a March election that produced no clear winner and left a power vacuum for insurgents to exploit.


Iraq govt says Sadr security help not needed
The Iraqi government said on Saturday that an offer by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to help boost security at strategic sites was unnecessary, in the wake of anti-Shiite attacks in Baghdad.

A Week in Iraq

Al-Qaeda "targets Baghdad homes" 




Former Iraqi prisoners allege abuse 




Multiple bombings kill many in Iraq 

April 20th Morning Readbook (Iraq Edition)

A paper displays photographs of a man the Iraqi government claims to be al-Qaida leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi at a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, April 19, 2010. (Xinhua/AFP Photo)


Two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq are killed in raid
The two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq were slain in a U.S. airstrike over the weekend, a decisive tactical victory for American and Iraqi forces and one that provides Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with additional political leverage at a crucial time.


Iraq announces killing of another senior al-Qaida leader
Iraq announced Tuesday the killing of another senior leader of al-Qaida group in the country, an official television reported. "Iraqi security forces killed the terrorist Ahmed al-Obaidi, also known as Abu Suhaib, the military leader for Qaida terrorist organization in the provinces of Nineveh, Kirkuk and Salahudin," the state-run television of Iraqia, quoted Mohammed al-Askari media advisor of the Iraqi Defence Ministry as saying.


Secret prison revealed in Baghdad
Hundreds of Sunni men disappeared for months into a secret Baghdad prison under the jurisdiction of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's military office, where many were routinely tortured until the country's Human Rights Ministry gained access to the facility, Iraqi officials say.


Iraq judicial panel orders recount
An Iraqi judicial panel on Monday ordered a manual recount of about 2.5 million ballots cast in Baghdad in last month's national elections, an action requested by Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's alliance, which had filed allegations of vote fraud.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera

AQI Leadership Killed & Manual Recount

In a shocking display of alleged competency, Iraqi security forces killed the top two leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq according to United States Forces - Iraq.  General Odierno stated “the death of these terrorists is potentially the most significant blow to al-Qaeda in Iraq since the beginning of the insurgency,” which I would have to disagree. I think that whole Awakening / Sons of Iraq movement which was part of "the Surge" had a greater impact.





Notice the photos Maliki held up as "proof" the two al Qaeda leaders were killed. My understanding was that Iraqis spoke Arabic.

Meanwhile, as U.S. Forces were high-fiving each other over the successful Iraqi forces mission, Prime Minister Maliki continued his campaign to legally steal the Iraqi election as an Iraqi court ordered a manual recount of the ballots in Baghdad.

Bacha Bazi on PBS

I encourage anyone still holding the belief that modern U.S. COIN doctrine can create a self-sustaining Jeffersonian democracy in Afghanistan to google the term in the title. PBS Frontline will air an episode covering bacha bazi on April 20th. Here is a short clip.

April 17th Morning Readbook

Iraq: A satellite of Iran?

Iran maintains that its positive influence in Iraq is mistaken as interference but when Iraqi politicians met in Tehran to discuss the formation of a new government, Iran's power was unmistakeable. Inside Iraq discusses Iran's influence in Iraq.



Iraq PM: Sunni-backed bloc must be in govt
Iraq's Shiite prime minister said Friday the Sunni-backed political coalition that is headed by his archrival and won the most seats in last month's parliamentary election must be included in the country's new government.


Suicide bombers kill 30 in Pakistan
Two suicide bombers attacked a refugee camp in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 30 people and injuring more than 70 in what appeared to be retaliation for the military's latest offensive against Taliban insurgents in the volatile tribal areas' Orakzai region.


Pakistan: Deadly Attack at Hospital
A suicide bomber attacked a hospital emergency room filled with Shiite mourners on Friday in Quetta, killing eight people, including a journalist and two police officers. Journalists were at the hospital covering the aftermath of the shooting of a prominent Shiite bank manager, who was attacked earlier in the day. The emergency room was full of his friends and relatives when the bomber struck, the police said, in what they called a sectarian attack.


Taliban targets U.S. contractors working on projects in Afghanistan
The Taliban has begun regularly targeting U.S. government contractors in southern Afghanistan, stepping up use of a tactic that is rattling participating firms and could undermine development projects intended to stem the insurgency, according to U.S. officials.


Osama bin Laden's Facebook account disabled
Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's profile on social networking website Facebook has been shut down, after a security expert raised the issue with the website's U.S. owners.


A Kyrgyz interim leader says US base unjustified
A top official in Kyrgyzstan's interim government told The Associated Press on Saturday that a U.S. air base supporting operations in Afghanistan is "not justified," the first sign of significant divisions over the facility.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera

April 12th Morning Readbook

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (R) talks with Iraq's President Jalal Talabani (L) at Royal Palace in Riyadh April 11, 2010. REUTERS


Iraq says Saudi backs unity government
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on a visit to Saudi Arabia on Sunday said King Abdullah expressed his wish for a government comprising all Iraq's politicians after an indecisive March 7 general election.


Allawi's secularism may not fly in today's Iraq
In a nation where religion and politics have become nearly inseparable, can a secular politician be prime minister of Iraq? The question has moved to the heart of Iraq's complex politics after a coalition led by secular Shiite Ayad Allawi emerged as the biggest vote winner in last month's elections, winning 91 of the legislature's 325 seats, edging out a bloc led by the incumbent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by only two seats.


Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, threatens to block Nato offensive
The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has cast doubt over Nato’s planned summer offensive against the Taliban in the southern province of Kandahar, as more than 10,000 American troops pour in for the fight.


Afghan Officials: NATO Troops Kill 4 on Bus
Afghan officials say NATO troops opened fire on a bus in southern Afghanistan Monday, killing at least four people and wounding 18 others.


Pakistan: 41 militants, 2 soldiers die in fighting
More than 100 militants armed with rockets and automatic weapons attacked two security checkpoints in northwestern Pakistan on Monday, sparking intense fighting that left at least 41 insurgents and two soldiers dead, officials said.


Zazi, Al Qaeda pals planned rush-hour attack on Grand Central, Times Square subway stations
Chilling new details about the foiled Al Qaeda plot to blow up the city's busiest subways have emerged as a fourth suspect was quietly arrested in Pakistan, the Daily News has learned.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera