Return of the Mahdi Army

Graphic courtesy of globalsecurity.org


If we look at the bell curve chart of violence in Iraq, we notice that the steep rise began when the Mahdi Army initiated a genocidal campaign with the support of Iraqi forces against the Sunnis. This occurred during the goverment formation period in 2006. We also notice the steep drop in violence just after Muqtada al Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to stand down.

Due to the actions of a "defeated" and "decapitated" Al Qaeda in Iraq, Muqtada al Sadr has called for the return of the Mahdi Army.


Iraqi Cleric Calls on Followers to Defend Against Attacks
An influential Shi'ite cleric in Iraq is urging followers to defend Shi'ite communities after a series of blasts killed at least 69 people throughout Iraq Friday.

The most deadly attacks targeted Shi'ite neighborhoods and mosques in Baghdad's Sadr city, where a movement led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is based. 

Sadr released a statement late Friday calling on his followers to form brigades within the police force and army to defend their places of worship, homes and communities.  Sadr said they must not rely on U.S. forces in Iraq to defend themselves.


Anti-U.S. cleric offers Iraq government help after attacks
Anti-U.S. Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr offered to help the Iraqi government maintain security after bomb attacks against Shi'ites killed 56 people in Baghdad in an apparent backlash by Sunni insurgents.

Sadr's offer of the use of his paramilitary Mehdi Army late Friday was made at a sensitive time for Iraq following a March election that produced no clear winner and left a power vacuum for insurgents to exploit.


Iraq govt says Sadr security help not needed
The Iraqi government said on Saturday that an offer by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to help boost security at strategic sites was unnecessary, in the wake of anti-Shiite attacks in Baghdad.

The Surge Debate

For whatever reason there is a debate over whether or not the Surge succeeded. Zen Pundit has probably the best coverage while Abu Muqawama is the one that picked the fight with the blogosphere. I will let Tom Ricks start this one off.





Now let expand on one of the very important points he brings up in the beginning. The new strategy for Iraq was announce by then-President Bush. Before the US press started calling it "the surge" it was known as "The New Way Forward in Iraq."

The President's New Iraq Strategy Is Rooted In Six Fundamental Elements:

   1. Let the Iraqis lead;
   2. Help Iraqis protect the population;
   3. Isolate extremists;
   4. Create space for political progress;
   5. Diversify political and economic efforts; and
   6. Situate the strategy in a regional approach.

Number 4 is the specific one mentioned by Ricks. But the "New Way Forward" is not the only officially stated means to measure success.

On May 25, 2007, H.R. 2206 the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007 became Public Law No: 110-28. This was better known for having the "18 Benchmarks for Success in Iraq."

   1. Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review.

   2. Enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification.

   3. Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources of the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner.

   4. Enacting and implementing legislation on procedures to form semi-autonomous regions.

   5. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing an Independent High Electoral Commission, provincial elections law, provincial council authorities, and a date for provincial elections.

   6. Enacting and implementing legislation addressing amnesty.

   7. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing a strong militia disarmament program to ensure that such security forces are accountable only to the central government and loyal to the Constitution of Iraq.

   8. Establishing supporting political, media, economic, and services committees in support of the Baghdad security plan.

   9. Providing three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations.

  10. Providing Iraqi commanders with all authorities to execute this plan and to make tactical and operational decisions, in consultation with U.S. commanders, without political intervention, to include the authority to pursue all extremists, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias.

  11. Ensuring that the Iraqi security forces are providing even-handed enforcement of the law.

  12. Ensuring that, according to President Bush, Prime Minister Maliki said “the Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation.”

  13. Reducing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq and eliminating militia control of local security.

  14. Establishing all of the planned joint security stations in neighborhoods across Baghdad.

  15. Increasing the number of Iraqi security forces’ units capable of operating independently.

  16. Ensuring that the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature are protected.

  17. Allocating and spending $10 billion in Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects, including delivery of essential services, on an equitable basis.

  18. Ensuring that Iraq’s political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi security forces.

Now that we have the official "metrics" from the then-President and the official means of measuring success that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, the debate can continue.

My personal assessment is that the war is still going on. We simply cannot say whether it was a success yet. If there is any question to answer it would be this one.

Have any troops been authorized weekend leave in Baghdad? Saigon was safe enough for R&R.

Afghanistan is the New Iraq?

Here is a great debate courtesy of Al Jazeera. They discuss a question we have continuously brought up here; did the "surge" in Iraq work, what does the U.S. believe worked, and what real lessons from Iraq can be transferred?

Al Jazeera asks whether Obama's new military strategy is destined to fail.

November 10th Morning Readbook

Back in 1775...(REUTERS/Jo Yong-Hak)

Iraq's minorities victim of northern conflict: HRW
Minorities, including Christians, in northern Iraq are the collateral victims of a conflict between Arabs and Kurds over who controls the country's disputed provinces, Human Rights Watch warned Tuesday.


ANALYSIS-U.S. withdrawal from Iraq on schedule -- for now
Obama set on sticking to timetable. U.S. officials worry about repeat of 2006 violence. Flexibility built into troop withdrawal timeline.


Iraq 'surge' should be tailored for Afghanistan
Veterans Day is when we as Americans honor the achievements of our armed forces. It commemorates the end of the First World War due, in no small part, to the sacrifices and efforts of the American military. It is also a fitting moment to reflect on more recent accomplishments and the qualities of the American armed forces that made them possible. A few days ago, Iraq's Council of Representatives passed a law by which the Iraqi people will elect a new parliament and prime minister in January 2010. This important political milestone is a measure of the success of the "surge" of U.S. forces into Iraq that not only ended a sectarian civil war but also set the conditions for the remarkable political developments that have followed.


Sources: Obama near decision on Afghanistan troops
President Barack Obama is nearing a decision to add tens of thousands more forces to Afghanistan, though probably not quite the 40,000 sought by his top general there. The White House emphasized that the president hasn't made a decision yet about troop levels or other aspects of the revised U.S. strategy in Afghanistan.


Japan Pledges $5 Billion in New Afghan Aid
Japan said Tuesday it will dramatically increase its non-military aid to Afghanistan, pledging $5 billion for a range of projects that includes building schools and highways, training police officers, clearing land mines and rehabilitating former Taliban fighters.


Pakistanis 'united against the Taliban'
The Pakistani army operation in South Waziristan has been accompanied by a string of deadly bomb attacks on civilian and military targets across the country. Here, ordinary Pakistanis describe the impact frequent attacks have on their lives and their hopes that the army succeeds in South Waziristan.


Qaeda chief in Gulf incites Sunnis against Shiites
The head of an Al-Qaeda-linked group in the Gulf has warned the Muslim world's majority Sunnis that the Shiites and Iran pose a greater "danger" than Jews or Christians, a US monitoring group said Tuesday.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

Understanding the Surge

As previously posted here, the full documentary is now up.

Understanding the Surge from ISW on Vimeo.