Shi'ite pilgrims beat themselves with iron chains as they take part in the religious festival of Ashura in Najaf. Shi'ites constitute the majority of Iraq's population and will dominate the Iraqi government for as long as there are democratic elections. (REUTERS/Ali Abu Shish)If you are not familiar with Dr. Austin Long he is by far one of the most brilliant minds in the counterinsurgency field today. On 'Other War': Five Decades of RAND Counterinsurgency Research is a must-read for anyone involved or interested in COIN operations.
Dr. Long popped up on Tom Ricks' blog today in response to a recent and overly optimistic article on Iraq by Fareed Zakaria.
I am not sure when the last time Zakaria was in Iraq, if ever, but I am in transit back from a trip there and am a lot less optimistic. The security forces are intensely politicized, Kirkuk is a bomb waiting to go off, Baghdad looks like a mix of Mad Max and the Berlin Wall zone (1,500 checkpoints in the city according to a couple of people interviewed and various ISF gun trucks at brief intervals along main roads), and corruption is endemic and massive at all levels of government. Many Iraqis are so disillusioned with democracy that turnout may only be a 33% or less in the upcoming election. The outcome of the election, with greater fragmentation predicted, will likely make it harder not easier for the government to take required action even as U.S. leverage is dropping quickly.
To be fair, it is much less violent than two years or even maybe a year ago but given the astronomical levels violence got to in 2006-2007 I do not view this as an achievement of epic proportions. Moreover, it is not clear this is not merely the lull before renewed violence in a couple of years.
The concept of U.S. leverage in Iraq plummeting is something that rarely makes headlines, but is tremendously important as we observe the formation of a new Iraqi government in the next several months. The U.S. mission in Iraq has become its timely exit from the country; key to that departure is a successful election and transfer of power. No longer is the political future of Iraq a concern of U.S. foreign policy.
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