The Bad Neighbor

A worshiper holds a picture of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a rally against opposition supporters who insulted the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, after Friday prayers in Tehran December 18, 2009. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi


While there is about a foot of global warning on the ground keeping me inside today, I thought I would briefly go over some of what Iran has been doing. The worst-case scenario for the dwindling Iraq conflict is that it reignites into a regional state vs. state war engulfing most of the Middle East. The Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen allegedly being bombed by Saudis in a cross-border operation may be a harbinger of events to come.

Here is some of what we have seen from Iran recently:

Crossing into it's new proxy country of Iraq.

Planning to built 10 new uranium enrichment plants.

Downplaying the testing of missiles capable of reaching Eastern Europe.

Backing insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan to fight the U.S.

Holding U.S. hostages.



The Wall Street Journal has a thorough summary on Iranian activity over the past year as well. The good news is that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is concerned over Iranian influence in Iraq. Good on him for taking ten minutes away from Afghanistan to realize what is happening inside Iraq.


How are Iraq's neighbors responding to all of this?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been "the best recruiting officer" for U.S. military efforts to partner with Arab states over the past year. That's according to General David Petraeus, who as commander of Centcom is responsible for overseeing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and security efforts throughout the region. "There were certain countries which used to hold us at arm's length that have over the last year embraced Central Command in certain cooperative endeavors," Petraeus told TIME in an interview on Dec. 13, citing ballistic-missile defense agreements and shared early-warning systems. "Ahmadinejad's rhetoric is very alarming among countries in this region."

The prospects of the worst-case scenario coming to fruition will only rise during the eventual political crisis Iraq will soon face in the wake of its "democratic" election in March. Iran will not accept a Western or Arab friendly government; nor will the Arab neighbors accept another Iranian proxy regime.

Why do I call the Iraqi election an eventual political crisis? The Iraq election law that many called a great success.

First, the Kurds expanded the number of seats they will win in parliament to between 60 and 65. This makes the Kurds kingmakers in determining who will become the next Prime Minister.

Second, the next Prime Minister will almost certainly come from the Shiite majority. The Shiite and Sunni blocs would vote against a Kurd PM for fears of Kurdish domination. The Shiites and the Kurds would vote against a Sunni PM for fears of a Baathist return to power.

Third, the Sunnis put violence on hold in exchange for participating in the political process. Should the results embody their worst fears of Iranian-proxy domination, we can expect a second wave insurgency to spawn from political disenfranchisement most likely supported by Iraq's Arab neighbors.