The Failure of Metrics-based Cheerleading

AP is running a story today on how half of Iraq's October casualties were from just one attack. The press is fixated on repeating that violence has "dropped dramatically" since 2006 without bothering to look at who is being killed today. Cheerleading on the "dramatic drop" can be found here, here, and here from a quick google search.

icasualties.org takes the headlines from each reported attack and links to the wire service report as they come in. Bernard Fall, a former French resistance fighter and legendary counterinsurgent killed in Vietnam, wrote about how he was among a minority of individuals warning while violence was declining in the Mekong Delta, village officials were being killed at a high rate; in 1960-1961 communists were averaging 11 village officials killed daily. Communist terrorists and insurgents were violently co-opting popular support.

It appears as if the same methodology is being used in Iraq today. Let us take a look at October's violence, not on the number of attacks that are "dramatically down" but rather who is being killed. Headlines courtesy of icasualties.org.


10/31/09 BAGHDAD - A bomb attached to a car killed an employee of the Justice Ministry and wounded three people in south Baghdad's Saidiya district on Friday, police said.
10/28/09 BAGHDAD - A bomb attached to a minibus killed three women and wounded four men in eastern Baghdad, police said.
10/28/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed three civilians and wounded five people including a soldier in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/28/09 TIKRIT - A roadside bomb blew up an oil tanker, killing the driver and his assistant, on Tuesday near Tikrit, 150 km (95 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/27/09 MOSUL - On Tuesday afternoon, two gunmen attacked a young man in Al-Sarij Khana area in downtown Mosul and killed him
10/27/09 Nineveh - On Tuesday afternoon, gunmen broke out a store of a merchant in Al-Sarai market in downtown Mosul city killing him after he refused to give them money
10/26/09 KERBALA - A bomb planted in a mini-bus killed three people and wounded eight at the northern entrance to Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, police said.
10/26/09 MOSUL - Gunmen killed two people and wounded two in eastern Mosul on Sunday, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/25/09 Iraqi officials have raised the death toll from Sunday's bombings in Baghdad to 155 and they say another 500 people were wounded in the explosions.
10/25/09 MOSUL - A sniper killed an Iraqi army officer in western Mosul on Saturday, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/25/09 MOSUL - Armed men killed one person in a drive-by in eastern Mosul on Saturday, police said.
10/25/09 MOSUL - Gunmen attacked an Iraqi army checkpoint and killed one soldier in western Mosul on Saturday, police said.
10/24/09 TIKRIT - A suicide bomber wearing a vest packed with explosives killed a guard at a local political party's office and wounded two civilians nearby in central Tikrit, 150 km (95 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/23/09 BAAJ - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed one soldier in Baaj, 375 km (233 miles) northwest of Baghdad, police said.
10/23/09 BAGHDAD - A bomb attached to a car killed a man and wounded his wife and their three sons in Abu Ghraib district of western Baghdad, police said.
10/23/09 MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead a traffic policeman in eastern Mosul, police said.
10/23/09 MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead an off-duty guard in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/22/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, targeted a police patrol, killing one police officer, police said.
10/22/09 MOSUL - Armed men in a speeding car killed a pedestrian for unknown reasons in eastern Mosul, police said.
10/21/09 FALLUJA - Armed men attacked an Iraqi army checkpoint and stabbed a soldier to death on Tuesday in central Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.
10/21/09 KIRKUK - A roadside bomb killed a local cameraman and wounded another journalist in central Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/21/09 MOSUL - Gunmen killed a policeman's father and mother in a village just south of Mosul, police said.
10/21/09 MOSUL - Gunmen killed a street vender and wounded a 10-year-old boy in northern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/20/09 FALLUJA - A car bomb killed four people including two policemen and wounded nine civilians in a town outside of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.
10/19/09 BAGHDAD - A bomb exploded in a popular restaurant killing one person and wounding 10 in southwestern Baghdad's Bayaa district, police said.
10/19/09 BAGHDAD - A bomb planted in a bus killed one person and wounded eight in Shaab district in north Baghdad, police said.
10/19/09 MOSUL - A bomb attached to a car killed a former army officer, who heads a small political party in northern Mosul, police said.
10/19/09 MOSUL - Iraqi police found the bodies of two men killed by strangulation in southeastern Mosul on Monday, police said.
10/18/09 ADHAMIYA - A bomb attached to a motorcycle killed three people and wounded 14 in Adhamiya, police said.
10/18/09 ADHAMIYA - A parked car bomb killed five people and wounded 15 in the north Baghdad district of Adhamiya, police said.
10/18/09 BAGHDAD - A bomb attached to a car killed one person and wounded three others in central Baghdad's Karrada district, police said.
10/18/09 HASWA - A roadside bomb killed two people and wounded nine in Haswa, 50 km (30 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.
10/18/09 MOSUL - Gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi police checkpoint killing a child and wounding five civilians in central Mosul on Saturday, police said.
10/17/09 FALLUJA - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed four soldiers and wounded 10 near Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.[ID:nLH186404]
10/17/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi police patrol killed one policeman and wounded two civilians in western Mosul, police said.
10/17/09 MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead a civilian in a drive-by shooting in southwest Mosul, police said.
10/17/09 MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead a policeman and wounded two civilians in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/16/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi police patrol killed one policeman and wounded four others on Thursday just east of Mosul, police said.
10/16/09 MOSUL - A suicide car bomber killed an Iraqi soldier at an army checkpoint on a road west of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/16/09 MOSUL - Police opened fire on an ambulance, killing one civilian inside and wounding two others including a paramedic on Thursday in western Mosul, police said.
10/16/09 TAL AFAR - A suicide bomber killed at least 15 people and wounded 90 in Tal Afar, 420 km (260 miles) northwest of Baghdad, security officials said.
10/15/09 BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed an Iraqi soldier and wounded two others and one civilian in north Baghdad's Adhamiya district, police said.
10/15/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed one policeman and wounded another officer and three civilians in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/14/09 BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed at least seven people and wounded ten in a gold heist in Shula district in northwest Baghdad, hospital and police officials said.
10/14/09 KERBALA - Three explosions killed at least three people and wounded 20 in the Shi'ite holy city of Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, police and health officials said.
10/14/09 MOSUL - Gunmen opened fire and killed an off-duty security guard in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/13/09 BUHRIZ - A suicide bomber killed six people and wounded 10 others at a cafe in Buhriz, about 60 km (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad, police said
10/13/09 KIRKUK - A roadside bomb killed two Iraqi soldiers and wounded four in a town southwest of the provincial capital of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, an army source said.
10/12/09 BUHRIZ - A roadside bomb killed a day labourer and wounded two others in Buhriz, police said.
10/12/09 BUHRIZ - Two separate roadside bombs killed three people and wounded three others in Buhriz, 60 km (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad, police said.
10/12/09 MOSUL - Gunmen killed an Iraqi construction contractor in a drive-by shooting in northwestern Mosul, police said.
10/11/09 MAHMUDIYA - Two people were killed and eight were wounded in a twin bombing at a market in Mahmudiya, 30 km (20miles) south of Baghdad, police said
10/11/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed a civilian and wounded another in central Mosul on Saturday, police said.
10/11/09 MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead a university student in eastern Mosul on Saturday, police said.
10/11/09 RAMADI - Three car bombs exploded in Ramadi, 70 miles west of Baghdad, killing 19 and injuring 81. Two car bombs exploded in a quick succession..The third attack targeted the main hospital in the city by a suicide attacker driving a car bomb ...
10/09/09 FALLUJA - A bomb attached to a car killed a Sunni imam and two other people in a village outside of Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.
10/09/09 KIRKUK - Iraqi police found the body of a policeman riddled with bullets in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/08/09 JALAWLA - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi police patrol killed two policemen and wounded four others on Wednesday in the town of Jalawla, 115 km (70 miles) northeast of Baghdad, police said.
10/08/09 YUSUFIYA - A roadside bomb detonated in front of a shop in Yusufiya, killing three people and injuring ten others 20 km (12 miles) south of Baghdad.
10/07/09 SHIRQAT - Iraqi police found the bodies of three police officers kidnapped a month ago, on the outskirts of Shirqat, 300 km (190 miles) north of Baghdad, on Tuesday, police said.
10/06/09 BAGHDAD - Two roadside bombs targeting government-allied Sunni Muslim neighbourhood patrol members at their checkpoint killed one of them and wounded four civilians and two policemen in northern Baghdad's Adhamiya district, police said.
10/06/09 FALLUJA - A minibus bomb exploded at a market in the western Iraqi town of Amiriya on Tuesday, killing at least nine people and wounding 31, a local official said.
10/05/09 FALLUJA - A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded 6, including two Iraqi soldiers, when it exploded near an Iraqi army patrol in central Falluja, 50 km (35 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.
10/05/09 HADITHA - A suicide bomber walked into an Iraqi funeral tent and blew himself, killing at least six mourners and wounding 15 in Haditha, 190 km (120 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.
10/05/09 KIRKUK - Police said they found the body of a Christian man bearing several gun shot wounds in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad. He had been kidnapped from his house two days earlier.
10/05/09 MOSUL - A bomb placed in a trash mound killed an eleven-year old boy on Sunday in central Mosul, police said.
10/04/09 BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one policeman and wounded four when it exploded near their patrol in Baghdad's eastern Mashtal district, police said. 0 1 1
10/04/09 BAGHDAD - Gunmen in a car opened killed an off-duty policeman driving his car in Baghdad's southeastern al-Ameen district, police said.
10/04/09 MOSUL - A roadside bomb went off near a truck and killed its driver on Saturday in southern Mosul, police said.
10/04/09 MOSUL - Gunmen killed an off-duty traffic policeman on Saturday near his home in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/04/09 MOSUL - Police said they found the head of a woman in a graveyard on Saturday in central Mosul.
10/03/09 BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb struck the car of Amir Sadeq, general director of electricity supply for Iraq's Middle Euphrates region, wounding him and killing his driver in northern Baghdad's Adhamiya district, police said.
10/02/09 SHURUQ - A bomb planted under the podium of mosque killed a cleric and wounded three worshippers in the village of Shuruq, about 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
10/01/09 FALLUJA - A bomb planted on a car killed one civilian and wounded another in Fallujah, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.
10/01/09 MOSUL - Police said they found the body of a man with gunshot wounds to the chest and head in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad.

It reads like the 2003-2004 "pockets of dead enders" violence all over again. All we are missing now is a "Mission Accomplished" banner.