Everything is Great in Iraq

Iraq finally set a date on when they will hold elections. Last post-election cycle brought Muqtada al Sadr's militia into the government and a small civil war broke out. This is a basic insurgency tactic called "subversion." The U.S. COIN field manual states the following:

Joint doctrine defines an insurgency as an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict (JP 1-02). Stated another way, an insurgency is an organized, protracted politico-military struggle designed to weaken the control and legitimacy of an established government, occupying power, or other political authority while increasing insurgent control.

During the first round of the sectarian civil war, the Mahdi Army used their placement and access in the Iraqi government toward facilitating a Sunni Arab genocide. Here are some of the headlines from the last post-election period in 2006.

2006 Post-Election Period

CBS: Death Squads In Iraqi Hospitals
They come from the main morgue that's overflowing, relatives too terrified to claim their dead because most are from Iraq's Sunni minority, murdered by Shiite death squads.

And the morgue itself is believed to be controlled by the same Shiite militia blamed for many of the killings: the Mahdi Army, founded and led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The takeover began after the last election in December when Sadr's political faction was given control of the Ministry of Health. The U.S. military has documented how Sadr's Mahdi Army has turned morgues and hospitals into places where death squads operate freely.


Sadr's militia tightens grip on healthcare
After being sworn in last week, Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki outlined two big priorities: reasserting a government monopoly on lethal force by disbanding militias and ending rampant political corruption.

But a day spent at Iraq's Health Ministry shows how big a task Mr. Maliki has set for himself.

On one recent morning, six men were loading a simple wooden coffin bearing their relative onto a beat-up Toyota pickup as a female relative in a billowing black abaya choked back tears. Nearby guards barely cast a second glance at the all too common scene.

The ministry is run by the militant Shiite movement led by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, one of Maliki's key backers. Under the political spoils system that has emerged since the US invaded Iraq, the ministry has provided a jobs program for his militiamen and revenue generating opportunities for loyalists.

Similarly, Iraq's Interior Ministry that runs the police and domestic intelligence services has been controlled for over a year by a leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and accused of operating death squads. Its forces are filled with members of the Badr Brigade, that party's militia, who have been widely implicated in torture and murder.


City of vengeance
Iraq is accelerating toward civil war. Over the weekend and on Monday, July 10, Baghdad witnessed the most savage outbreak of revenge killings to date. Shiite militiamen, who witnesses claimed were members of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, set up checkpoints in the city's al-Jihad neighborhood, inspected ID cards and killed 42 people they identified as being Sunnis. They also broke into homes and killed their inhabitants. Corpses were found in the street with drill holes and pierced by nails and bolts. These attacks, which took place after sunrise, were clearly acts of revenge for two earlier car bombings near Shiite mosques. In turn, the checkpoint killings spurred two more huge Sunni car bomb attacks in the Sadr-dominated neighborhood of Talbiyeh, killing 25 and wounding 41.

2009 Pre-Election Period

Take note of some of the classic insurgency tactics taking place just over the past three days. Collaborators with the U.S. and new Iraqi government as well as the security apparatus are killed on a daily basis. This is all being done in the run-up to elections. Just because the Sunni Arabs chose to participate in the electoral process does not mean they accept the new government.

November 7th

BAGHDAD - A bicycle loaded with explosives killed a local Sunni Arab leader and wounded three bystanders in Abu Ghraib in the western outskirts of Baghdad, police said.

KIRKUK - Gunmen shot dead a local pro-government militia member in southwest Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad on Friday, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead an Iraqi policeman at a checkpoint in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb struck an Iraqi police patrol on Friday, wounding three policemen and two civilians in western Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol on foot, killing one policeman and wounding another in central Mosul on Friday, police said.


November 8th

MOSUL - Two gunmen shot and wounded a policeman in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. The gunmen were later arrested by police.

MOSUL - Two militants were killed when a roadside bomb they were planting in eastern Mosul exploded, police said.

KIRKUK - Gunmen in a speeding car shot at and killed an employee of the North Oil Company in central Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

FALLUJA - One attacker was killed and a policeman wounded when suspected insurgents attacked an Iraqi police checkpoint in Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad, on Saturday night, police said.


November 9th

KIRKUK - Gunmen stormed the home of Hadi Luaibi, a local leader of the Sadrist movement, and killed him in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, on Sunday, police said.

MOSUL - An attacker threw a hand grenade at an Iraqi police patrol, wounding 10 people in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, on Sunday, police said.


History of Subversion

Iraq witnessed coup and coup attempts in 1940, 1958, 1959, twice in 1963, and 1968. David Galula, probably the most influential COIN theorist, called for eight steps in defeating an insurgency. They are:

1. Concentrate enough armed forces to destroy or to expel the main body of armed insurgents.
2. Detach for the area sufficient troops to oppose an insurgent's comeback in strength, install these troops in the hamlets, villages, and towns where the population lives.
3. Establish contact with the population and control its movements in order to cut off its links with the guerrillas
4. Destroy the local insurgent political organizations
5. Set up, by means of elections, new provisional local authorities.
6. Test these authorities by assigning them various concrete tasks. Replace the softs and the incompetents, give full support of the active leaders. Organize self-defense units.
7. Group and educate the leaders in a national political movement.
8. Win over or suppress the last insurgent remnants.

The U.S. skipped two steps. What made the Iraq insurgency unique was the lack of a political agenda; it was mostly an anti-occupation resistance. Instead the U.S. is facilitating the creation of political wings for insurgent groups expecting what we all witnessed in 2006 not to repeat.

The insurgency is at a dull roar waiting for the U.S. to leave; another basic insurgency tactic. Missteps in security by the Iraqis continue on a near-daily basis allowing the insurgents to carve out areas to operate and intimidate those that oppose them. I will end this post with a final example of the latest Iraqi security blunder.