The "System Failure"

REUTERS


Declassified, the blog for Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball, has two interesting postings on the Christmas Package Bomber. The picture for how exactly the "system failure" occurred is slowly emerging.

Based upon their two articles, it appears that Customs and Border Protection did not check an inbound passenger roster against a database managed by an office of the Director for National Intelligence (a 9/11 commission created position). Also, the National Counter-terrorism Center (a 9/11 commission created organization) entered information on Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab into the DNI managed database.

Homeland Security officials told reporters, on condition of anonymity, today that the National Targeting Center, a suburban Washington office which is part of the Bureau of Customs and Border Protection (which in turn is part of Homeland Security) has a special room where officials who do advance screening of airline passenger lists can go to access classified data bases including TIDE, the classified data base, maintained by a division of the National Intelligence Director's office, which is supposed to be the government's broadest source of raw intelligence information about terrorism suspects. As Newsweek and other media have previously reported, after the father of alleged would-be underpants bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab notified an American Embassy in Nigeria of concerns that his son had fallen in with islamic extremists -- possibly in Yemen -- the National Counter-terrorism Center, which maintains TIDE, entered a report from the Embassy about the father's concerns into the TIDE data base.

Nefarious information received by the CIA from Abdulmutallab's father was passed to the State department. This did not meet the threshold to repeal Abdulmutallab's U.S. Visa.

According to news reports, CIA personnel were involved in discussions with Alhaji Umaru Mutallab, Umar's father, when the father went to the American Embassy in Abuja, Nigeria, on Nov. 19 of this year to ask for help in locating and retrieving his son. The next day, according to U.S. national security officials, embassy officials, including representatives of the CIA and other agencies involved in counterterrorism operations, met to discuss the father's information.

As a result of this meeting, as we reported on Monday, a cable was sent by the embassy into Visas Viper, a database used by the State Department to track foreigners who hold or apply for U.S. visas. This cable noted the father's concern that his son "may be involved with Yemeni based [Islamic] Extremists." Information from this cable was subsequently entered into the government's broadest classified database on terrorist suspects, known as TIDE, which is maintained by the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), a unit of the National Intelligence Director's office that was set up after 9/11 to ensure that counterterrorism information was rapidly shared among relevant U.S. agencies.

In review:

1. The DNI owns a database that is managed by NCTC in which information is entered by the CIA.
   
   
2. The State department had access to this database but did not repeal Abdulmutallab's visa.
   
   
3. The information from Abdulmutallab's father was enough to place his son into the DNI database, but not on the No-Fly List. 
   
   
4. Customs and Border Protection (a division of DHS) did not cross-check the inbound passenger roster against the DNI database which they could have accessed.
   
   
5. Transportation and Security administration (a division of DHS) did not find the bomb components brought onto a U.S.-bound aircraft.
   
   
6. Citizens that elected the U.S. government leadership had to take matters into their own hands as the government failed yet again.

Conclusion:

There is no such thing as an intelligence failure as actions are restricted by policy. Loosening restrictions on visa revocations and placement on the No-Fly list would have prevented the attempted Christmas mass-murder.

1. The State department could not revoke Abdulmutallab's visa because the nefarious intelligence did not meet threshold according to current policy.
   
   
2. Customs and Border Protection would still have allowed Abdulmutallab to board the flight to the U.S. according to current policy since he was not on the No-Fly List.
   

TSA security measures are employed based off of the previous attacks and attack attempts. Terrorists are adaptive therefore it is unrealistic to expect TSA security measures to prevent the "next attack."

Links to full articles below:

Homeland Screeners Have Access to Secret Terrorist Database -- But Rarely Look At It

What the CIA Did and Didn't Know About Alleged Underpants Bomber

December 31st Morning Readbook

An image grab taken from a videotape broadcast in 2008 by the Al-Arabiya news network shows British hostage in Iraq, Peter Moore. Moore, kidnapped with four others in Iraq in 2007, has been freed and is in good spirits despite a hostage ordeal in which four bodyguards also seized died or are feared dead, Britain said. (AFP/Al-Arabiya)

General Petraeus 'absolutely certain' that Peter Moore was held in Iran
The former US commander in Iraq is “absolutely certain” that Peter Moore was held secretly in Iran for part of his 31-month kidnap ordeal. General David Petraeus’s claim that the British IT consultant was held captive in Iran is likely to intensify the bitter diplomatic relationship between London and Tehran. Mr Moore was set free yesterday after the United States handed over an Iraqi insurgent suspected of planning the deaths of five American servicemen.


Revealed: evidence of Iran's involvement in the kidnapping of the five Britons in Baghdad
Following a year-long investigation, GuardianFilms has exclusively uncovered the story of what happened to the five Britons kidnapped in Iraq on 29 May 2007, as the only survivor, Peter Moore, is released


Iran link to 2007 kidnap of Britons in Iraq: reports
A British computer expert and his four bodyguards kidnapped in Iraq in 2007 were seized in an operation masterminded by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, media reported Thursday.

US releases ‘dangerous’ Iranian proxy behind the murder of US troops

Qais Qazali, the leader of the Asaib al Haq or the League of the Righteous, was set free by the US military and transferred to Iraqi custody in exchange for the release of British hostage Peter Moore, US military officers and intelligence officials told The Long War Journal.


Afghanistan suicide bombing kills 8 CIA officers
The Taliban takes responsibility for the explosion at a U.S. base in Khowst province where the agency has a major presence. No U.S. or NATO military personnel are hurt.


Pakistan army hits 'militants' in Waziristan hospital
Pakistani soldiers have raided a hospital in South Waziristan, killing at least four suspected militants and capturing 18, the military has said.


Obama to Receive Prelim Report on Airline Attack
President Barack Obama is to receive a preliminary report Thursday on how a 23-year-old Nigerian with suspected terrorist ties managed to board a plane he is accused of attempting to bomb on Christmas Day, along with recommendations on how to prevent a sequel.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

Prisoner Exchange?

Hostage Peter Moore’s fate tied to that of Laith and Qais al-Khazali
The fortunes of Peter Moore and his four fellow hostages have fluctuated with the fate of two brothers, the militia commanders Laith and Qais al-Khazali.


UK hostage freed in prisoner deal?
Channel 4 News learns that a prisoner exchange appears to be taking place after British IT consultant Peter Moore, held hostage in Iraq for two and a half years, is freed alive.


Peter Moore freed after US deal to hand over Iraqi insurgent
The British hostage Peter Moore was dramatically set free yesterday after the United States handed over an Iraqi insurgent suspected of planning the deaths of five American servicemen.


Shia cleric's release by US forces provided key to Peter Moore's freedom
Qais al-Khazali has been key to the release of Peter Moore ever since the Briton was kidnapped. The 26-year-old Shia cleric was a rising star in the Righteous League, a band of Iranian-backed Shia militants, a nascent Islamic group when he was captured by the SAS in March 2007.


Patrick Cockburn: Kidnapping was precisely targeted to secure freedom of Iranian-backed militants
The release of the British hostage Peter Moore finally came – as expected – in return for the "freeing" of Qais al-Khazali. The saga has dragged on for so long because the Americans were reluctant to free the militant Shia leader they blame for an attack on their base in Kerbala in 2007 in which five US soldiers were killed.

December 30th Morning Readbook

Map showing Ramadi in Iraq. Twin suicide blasts in the western city of Ramadi killed 23 people and left the Anbar provincial governor wounded in the latest attacks against government targets to hit Iraq. (AFP/Graphic)


Twin Iraq attacks kill 23, provincial governor wounded
win attacks in the western Iraqi city of Ramadi on Wednesday killed 23 people and wounded 30, including the governor of Anbar province, the city's main hospital said. The first attack struck near a security checkpoint at a road junction leading to the governorate offices in the centre of the Anbar provincial capital at around 9:30 am (0630 GMT). A separate bombing 30 minutes later at the entrance to the governorate building some 200 metres (yards) away hit the convoy of governor Qassim Mohammed Abid as it was leaving, wounding him.


Remembering Iraq's refugees
The bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra, one of Shiite Islam's holiest shrines, ushered in one of the bloodiest episodes of the Iraq war. After its gilded dome was ripped open to the sky, sectarian strife exploded. The day after the bombing in February 2006, dozens of Sunni mosques were attacked, many people were killed and a period of massive displacement began. Millions of Iraqis fled to Syria and Jordan if they could, or relocated within Iraq if they could not.


Obama Blames "Systemic Failures" For Plane Attack
President Barack Obama on Tuesday blamed "human and systemic failures" for allowing a botched Christmas Day attack aboard a Detroit-bound airliner and a U.S. official said the incident was linked to al Qaeda.


Fallout from bomb plot rocks US




Afghans burn Obama effigy over civilian deaths
Protesters took to the streets in Afghanistan on Wednesday, burning an effigy of the US president and shouting "death to Obama" to slam civilian deaths during Western military operations.


Haqqani Network Challenges US-Pakistan Relations
The bodies kept surfacing -- hanged, shot, beheaded -- and always with a note alleging the victims were anti-Taliban spies. ''Learn a lesson from the fate of this man,'' warned one message found on a corpse in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal region.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

It Worked the First Time...

Ex-CIA operative Henry Crumpton describes using local might to oust al Qaeda and their Taliban hosts in 2001, a strategy he says is needed in Pakistan, where terrorist are hiding. Lara Logan reports.


Watch CBS News Videos Online

Confusing Activity with Accomplishment

President Obama threw down the gauntlet yesterday against the al Qaeda franchise responsible for the attempted Christmas airline bombing.



Here is what we can expect to experience on the home front. The following was recently recorded from an in-flight announcement.



We all recognize the U.S. government failed yet again to protect its citizens from an attempted terrorist attack. Enacting visible, inconvenient, and ineffective policies only weakens the public confidence in the government's ability to provide security.

AQAP Video Backgrounder

Inside Story - Yemen's 'war on terror'

Yemen says it is fighting a war against homegrown al-Qaeda terror, but that fight is being questioned. Some accuse the government of using al-Qaeda's alleged presence as an excuse to use violence against the government's political enemies. Others have problems with the growing number of civilian casualties.

December 29th Morning Readbook

The underwear with the explosive worn by alleged Northwest 253 bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab is shown in this undated photo. (ABC News)


EXCLUSIVE: Photos of the Northwest Airlines Bomb
A singed pair of underwear with a packet of powder sewn into the crotch, seen in government photos obtained exclusively by ABC News, is all that remains of al Qaeda's attempt to down an American passenger plane over Detroit.


Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the wing of al-Qaeda operating in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, is led by a Yemeni who was once a close aide to Osama bin Laden.


Airport security 'not effective'




Explosive in Detroit terror case could have blown hole in airplane, sources say
A dangerous explosive allegedly concealed by Nigerian student Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab in his underwear could have blown a hole in the side of his Detroit-bound aircraft if it had been detonated, according to two federal sources briefed on the investigation.


Attack Puts Afghan Leader and NATO at Odds
The killing of at least nine men in a remote valley of eastern Afghanistan by a joint operation of Afghan and American forces put President Hamid Karzai and senior NATO officials at odds on Monday over whether those killed had been civilians or Taliban insurgents.


Pakistan mourns 43 killed in attack on Shiite holy day
Pakistan's financial capital Karachi shut down Tuesday to mourn its worst attack in two years and count the cost of rioting after a suicide bomber killed 43 people at a Shiite Muslim procession.



The latest news from Al Jazeera

December 28th Morning Readbook

Former teacher says Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, Flight 253 terrorist, openly supported Taliban
Undies bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab first showed signs of Islamic radicalism in high school, when he backed the Taliban during a class discussion, his former teacher said Sunday.


Plane terrorism suspect rejected West, life of privilege
He grew up amid extraordinary privilege, a wealthy Nigerian banker’s son who attended top international schools and traveled to the United States. But some time this year, according to relatives, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab became an enemy of the West.


Who is Abdulmutallab?



Terror Watch Lists Come Under Scrutiny
President Barack Obama's order to review the databases used to track terrorism suspects and keep them off airplanes comes amid growing concerns about those systems from lawmakers in both parties.


Al-Qaida claims Italian kidnappings in W. Africa
An al-Qaida offshoot is claiming responsibility for kidnapping two Italians in Mauritania.


U.S. wants Pakistan to pursue Taliban-allied group
But the Pakistani government has balked at going after the Haqqani network in North Waziristan, which Islamabad considers a potential ally in Afghanistan.


Iraq poll critical for stability



Iraqi Shiites protest Maliki's government
A group of 5,000 Iraqi Shiite demonstrators in the city of Karbala turned the religious observance of Ashura into a political protest against the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday, expressing wide-ranging criticisms as the country prepares for a critical national election in early March.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

"Suspicious Activity"

(AFP/Paul J. Richards)


In an effort to demonstrate the uselessness of TSA, two flights today have made headlines; one in Detroit again, the other in Phoenix. Hopefully anyone traveling over the next few weeks speaks English as a first language. Also, I would recommend sticking to animated movies.

Transportation Security Administration officials said passengers aboard U.S. Airways Flight 192 from Orlando, Fla., on Saturday night reported that two men, described as Middle Eastern, were acting strangely and talking loudly to each other in a foreign language.

A nearby passenger also observed one of men watching what appeared to be footage of a suicide bombing, but was actually a scene from the 2007 movie "The Kingdom." The man also got up from his seat while the seat belt warning sign was still lit, FBI spokesman Manuel Johnson said.

Having to use the bathroom during turbulence is considered suspicious activity. Keep that in mind next time the drink cart comes your way.

And the cause of the Detroit false alarm?

The Amsterdam-to-Detroit flight is the same one targeted Friday in what prosecutors called a failed attempt to blow up a jetliner. Sandra Berchtold, a spokeswoman for the Joint Terrorism Task Force in Detroit, said Sunday's alert was caused by a passenger who "spent a lengthy time in the restroom."

The good news is that President Obama was notified immediately of the Detroit flight's passenger that "spent a lengthy time in the restroom."

The Basic Terrorist Profile for U.S. Attacks

Unidentified men walk in front of the house of Alhaji Umar Abdul Mutallab, the father of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the alleged Christmas Day terrorist. (AP Photo/ Muhammad Salisu Rabiu)


Every time a Western-educated, middle class fundamentalist participates in a terrorist attack, we are told that an accurate terrorist profile does not exist. This is obviously not the case. For attacks and attack attempts against the United States, there are a few things the suspects have had in common.

1. Western educated
2. Middle Class
3. Devoutly religious/political
   
4. International travel

This is obviously not a catch-all, but intelligent security practices would apply this template to suspects. Instead, I expect many of us not fitting this profile to be harassed by TSA for the next few years.

Here is a list of terrorism suspects over the past 4 months that fit the profile above:

The Christmas Day Bomber
Abdul Farouq Abdulmuttab

The Virginia YouTube Taliban Five
Ahmed Abdullah Minni
Umar Farooq
Aman Hassan Yemer
Waqar Hussain Khan
Ramy Zamzamand

Chicago Local & Denmark Paper Bombing Plotter
David Coleman Headley

New York Subway Bombing Plotter
Najibullah Zazi



NOTE: I purposely did not mention specific races, religions, or genders since these profiles are VERY easy for terrorists to work around.

December 27th Morning Readbook

Detroit Metropolitan airport police corporal Richard Frederick walks through the airport with 'explosives detection' dog Spence in Romulus, Michigan. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook


U.S. plane attacker passed Nigeria security checks
A Nigerian man who tried to blow up a U.S. passenger jet went through normal security checks when he began his journey in Lagos and had a multiple-entry U.S. visa issued in London, a senior Nigerian aviation official said.


Pentagon reviewing strategic information operations
Trying to counter information-savvy enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. military has rapidly spent nearly $1 billion in the past three years on strategic communications.


Iraq steps up Ashoura security
Tens of thousands of Iraqi security personnel have been deployed in the holy shrine city of Karbala for the climax of the Shia Muslim Ashoura commemorations.


Elite U.S. Force Expanding Hunt in Afghanistan
Secretive branches of the military’s Special Operations forces have increased counterterrorism missions against some of the most lethal groups in Afghanistan and, because of their success, plan an even bigger expansion next year, according to American commanders.


US drone strike 'kills 13' in Pakistan
A US missile attack that demolished a compound in Pakistan's tribal belt used by militants crossing into Afghanistan killed 13 fighters, Pakistani security officials said Sunday.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

Functional Homeland Security: Ad Hoc Militias

Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, rides away from the Statue of Liberty on a Coast Guard boat following a naturalization ceremony on Ellis Island in New York. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson


Ad hoc militias, the unintended last line of defense appears to be the most effective. Flight 93 on 9/11, the "shoe bomber's" beat-down from his 2002 attempt, and yesterday's incident demonstrated the capability of citizens protecting themselves when the government has failed in it's basic mission of protecting the nation. Airline passengers and civilians have disrupted more terrorist attack attempts on airplanes than the U.S. government. Whether this is in fact true or not is irrelevant to public perceptions.

Yesterday's Christmas attack attempt serves as the latest example. According to an ABC News report,

The suspect had been in a law enforcement-intelligence database but was not on the government's no-fly list, according to a law enforcement official.

So how was this watchlisted individual subdued? Air marshals perhaps?

Delta spokeswoman Susan Chana Elliott said that "as the plane was getting ready to land" in Detroit "a passenger caused a disturbance" by trying to ignite what was initially reported to be firecrackers.

The man was "subdued immediately," Elliott said. Northwest is a wholly owned subsidiary of Delta.

"There was one guy, who sat on the other side, the right side of the wing because this was on the left side of the wing, and he jumped over the other people and he took care of it," said passenger Peter Smith.

Richard Reid, the man more commonly known as the "shoe bomber" was subdued by passangers on the flight he tried tried to attack.


So what is the record for DHS? Most of us are familiar with the hassle we all go through since August 2006, but one DHS incident stands out the most.

In 2005, Air Marshals shot and killed a mentally-ill man since he

"uttered threatening words that included a sentence to the effect that he had a bomb"... "He then appeared to be reaching into a carry-on bag, and the air marshals proceeded consistent with their training," Mr. Doyle said. "Shots were fired as the team attempted to subdue the individual."

Every time citizens of the U.S. succeed in preventing a terrorist attack against the U.S. it is also a demonstrable failure of the U.S. government.

December 26th Morning Readbook

REUTERS/WDIV TV


U.S. says al Qaeda-linked man tries to blow up plane
A Nigerian man believed to be linked to al Qaeda militants was in custody on Saturday after he tried to ignite an explosive device on a U.S. passenger plane as it approached Detroit, U.S. officials said.


'Terror attempt' on US aircraft



Taliban planned to use Americans in Pakistan attacks
Taliban insurgents had planned to use five Americans detained in Pakistan, who had contacted the militant group through the Internet, to carry out attacks inside the U.S. ally, a police official said on Saturday.


NATO: Taliban Commander Dies in Mosque Shootout
A heavily armed Taliban commander was killed Saturday during an pre-dawn shootout at a mosque in eastern Afghanistan, NATO said as it reported an American service member was killed in a separate attack.


Civilian, military planners have different views on new approach to Afghanistan
Two days before announcing the deployment of additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, President Obama informed Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal that he was not granting McChrystal's request to double the size of the Afghan army and police.


Tribal leader, police officer killed in Iraq's violence
A tribal leader and a police officer were killed while 10 people were wounded in several bomb attacks in Iraq on Saturday, the police said. Mahmoud Hussein al-Obiedi, a Sunni chieftain, was killed in a bomb explosion outside his house in Baghdad's western suburb of Abu Ghraib, a local police source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

December 25th Afternoon Readbook

REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra


Taliban Sends Out Video of G.I. Caught in Afghanistan
The Taliban released a video of a captured American soldier on Friday, the second to surface since he was seized in southern Afghanistan about six months ago.


Afghan trucks to India allowed to pass through Pakistan
For the first time, Pakistan has agreed in principle to allow Afghan trucks carrying goods for a third country to pass through Pakistan's territory and the decision is to help Afghanistan's exports, mainly perishables, to India by land route as the trucks can now travel right up to Wagah border, according to informed sources.


Soviet veteran recalls Afghan war




Pakistan Remands Suspected American Militants for More Questioning
Investigators in Pakistan are getting more time to question five young Americans suspected of trying to join a militant group.


Sectarian Violence Continues in Iraq
Attacks in the capital and the southern town of Hilla killed at least 26 in Iraq on Thursday and Friday, with religious-tinged violence ticking up as Christmas coincided this year with one of Shiite Islam's most important observances.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

Marines Training the Afghans

REUTERS/Adrees Latif


There is a great gap between those that lead COIN operations and those that perform them. Leadership essentially takes the role of cheerleader when things are bad while the ground truth is buried under bureaucratic layers.

Take a look at the differences in the assessments of the situation according to the visiting general and one of the Marines taking part in the Afghan training operation.

Afghan training a challenge for US marines

December 24th Morning Readbook

Afghan Shi'ite Muslims flagellate themselves with chains during an Ashura procession in Kabul December 24, 2009. Ashura, a 10-day-long event, commemorates the death of Prophet Mohammad's grandson Imam Hussein in battle 1,300 years ago. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani


Report Says Afghan Drug Effort Lacks Strategy
The United States-led counternarcotics effort in Afghanistan, viewed as critical to halting the flow of funds to the Taliban and curtailing corruption, lacks a long-term strategy, clear objectives and a plan for handing over responsibility to Afghans, the State Department inspector general said in a report released Wednesday.


Afghan police mistakenly kill parliament member
The lawmaker and his son are killed in an ambush that had been set to find a wounded insurgent commander in Baghlan province, in Afghanistan's north.


Major Militant Attacks in Pakistan Since October
A look at major attacks in Pakistan since the start of October:
-- Dec. 24: Suicide bomber kills four near government buildings in the main northwest city of Peshawar.
-- Dec. 22: Suicide bomber kills three at the Peshawar Press Club.
-- Dec. 15: Suicide car bomber kills 33 near a lawmaker's home in the Punjab province town of Dera Ghazi Khan.


Holbrooke: I am not working on India-Pakistan ties
Making it clear that he is not an envoy for India-Pakistan ties, the United States Special Representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, on Wednesday said he gave great importance to India in the region and constantly consulted it on the Obama administration’s Af-Pak policies.


World Digest: Shiites, Christians killed in bombings in Iraq
Bomb attacks targeted Iraqi Christians and Shiite Muslims on Wednesday, killing at least eight people and wounding 48 ahead of religious observances that will take place under heavy guard.


UPDATE: Iraq Has "Master Plan" To Boost Oil Exports - Oil Min
Iraq is working on a "master plan" to construct new infrastructure to boost the country's oil export capacity, after the award earlier this year of 10 large contracts to international oil companies, the country's Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said Wednesday.


Yemen Claims 30 Killed in Raid on al Qaeda
Yemeni authorities say military operations targeting al Qaeda hideouts have killed more than 30 suspected militants, including important leadership figures in the organization.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

The U.S. and Pakistan: Fairweather Friends

Labour Party Pakistan activists shout slogans during a protest in Lahore against the US President Barack Obama's Afghan policy. Although Pakistan is central to US strategy for the region, Washington has had a tough time dealing with a skittish military and political establishment in Islamabad that is wary of Washington's goals in neighboring Afghanistan. (AFP/File/Arif Ali)


Christopher Hitchens has an outstanding article on the U.S. relationship with Pakistan. From a COIN perspective, he asks a simple question with no simple answer, "Who is in charge of policy in the area?" Unity of command is one of the basic COIN principles most often cited from Robert Komer's Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam.

Hitchens goes on to describe the poisonous nature of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

This is, and always was, a sick relationship, and it is now becoming dangerously diseased. It's not possible to found a working, trusting, fighting alliance on such a basis. Under communism, the factory workers of Eastern Europe had a joke: "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In this instance, the Pakistanis don't even pretend that their main military thrust is directed against the common foe, but we do continue to pay them. If we only knew it, the true humiliation and indignity is ours, not theirs.

This will continue to get nastier and more corrupt and degrading until we recognize that our long-term ally in Asia is not Pakistan but India. And India is not a country sizzling with self-pity and self-loathing, because it was never one of our colonies or clients. We don't have to send New Delhi 15 different envoys a month, partly to placate and partly to hector, because the relationship with India isn't based on hysteria and envy. Alas, though, we send hardly any envoys at all to the world's largest secular and multicultural democracy, and the country itself gets mentioned only as an afterthought. Nothing will change until this changes.

You can read the full article here.

The Harsh Realities of Iraq

Shi'ite pilgrims beat themselves with iron chains as they take part in the religious festival of Ashura in Najaf. Shi'ites constitute the majority of Iraq's population and will dominate the Iraqi government for as long as there are democratic elections. (REUTERS/Ali Abu Shish)


If you are not familiar with Dr. Austin Long he is by far one of the most brilliant minds in the counterinsurgency field today. On 'Other War': Five Decades of RAND Counterinsurgency Research is a must-read for anyone involved or interested in COIN operations.

Dr. Long popped up on Tom Ricks' blog today in response to a recent and overly optimistic article on Iraq by Fareed Zakaria.

I am not sure when the last time Zakaria was in Iraq, if ever, but I am in transit back from a trip there and am a lot less optimistic. The security forces are intensely politicized, Kirkuk is a bomb waiting to go off, Baghdad looks like a mix of Mad Max and the Berlin Wall zone (1,500 checkpoints in the city according to a couple of people interviewed and various ISF gun trucks at brief intervals along main roads), and corruption is endemic and massive at all levels of government. Many Iraqis are so disillusioned with democracy that turnout may only be a 33% or less in the upcoming election. The outcome of the election, with greater fragmentation predicted, will likely make it harder not easier for the government to take required action even as U.S. leverage is dropping quickly.

To be fair, it is much less violent than two years or even maybe a year ago but given the astronomical levels violence got to in 2006-2007 I do not view this as an achievement of epic proportions. Moreover, it is not clear this is not merely the lull before renewed violence in a couple of years.

The concept of U.S. leverage in Iraq plummeting is something that rarely makes headlines, but is tremendously important as we observe the formation of a new Iraqi government in the next several months. The U.S. mission in Iraq has become its timely exit from the country; key to that departure is a successful election and transfer of power. No longer is the political future of Iraq a concern of U.S. foreign policy.

Christmas Weekend Reading List

REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra


The Center for a New American Security has two new interesting papers out; one on contractors in warzones, the other on redefining the missions of special operations forces. Also, the Strategic Studies Institute published an outstanding monograph on the "YouTube war."

From CNAS:

Contractors in American Conflicts: Adapting to a New Reality

When our nation goes to war, contractors go with it. Contractors have become an enduring feature of modern American conflicts, and the United States cannot now engage in hostilities or in reconstruction and stabilization operations without them. At their peak, there were more contractors on the ground in Iraq than American troops in uniform and there are more contractors today in Afghanistan than there are U.S. troops on the ground.

Time for Action: Redefining SOF Missions and Activities

U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) have played a key role in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as in the broader U.S. effort to destroy al Qaeda and its violent extremist allies. In fact, over the past eight years SOF have experienced their most extensive and transformative use of the modern era. Still, these strategic national assets are not yet fully optimized for success.


Here is the Strategic Studies Institute Monograph:

YouTube War: Fighting in a World of Cameras in Every Cell Phone and Photoshop on Every Computer

Terrorist attacks today are often media events in a second sense: information and communication technologies have developed to such a point that these groups can film, edit, and upload their own attacks within minutes of staging them, whether the Western media are present or not. In this radically new information environment, the enemy no longer depends on traditional media. This is the “YouTube War.” This monograph methodically lays out the nature of this new environment in terms of its implications for a war against media-savvy insurgents, and then considers possible courses of action for the Army and the U.S. military as they seek to respond to an enemy that has proven enormously adaptive to this new environment and the new type of warfare it enables.

December 23rd Morning Readbook

Afghan men look on as an elder speaks during a shura or meeting with the United States Marines from the 2nd Battalion 2nd Marines 'Warlords', and local government officials in the Garmsir district of the volatile Helmand province, southern Afghanistan, Monday, Dec. 21, 2009. The meeting was part of an operation in the area to push out insurgents. (AP Photo/Kevin Frayer)


Pakistan Taliban say fighters going to Afghanistan
A top Pakistani Taliban commander says he has sent thousands of insurgents to neighboring Afghanistan to rebuff incoming U.S. troops.


Afghan gov't: Member of parliament killed
A member of the Afghan parliament was mistakenly killed in an early morning shootout between his bodyguards and police officers, officials said Wednesday.


Marines hunt elusive foe in Helmand




Taliban target media
Three people, including a woman, were killed and another 24 injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the main gate of the Peshawar Press Club on Tuesday.


Treasury sanctions Iraq-based insurgent group
Treasury said it froze any assets Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq al-Naqshabandi, or JRTN, may have in the United States and prohibited banks and consumers from doing business with them.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

Creating Insurgents

Villagers shout anti-American and anti-Afghan government slogans during a funeral for people killed in a pre-dawn NATO operation, in Mehtar Lam, Afghanistan, some 100 kilometers (60 miles) east of Kabul, Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2009. The Afghan government said NATO forces killed six civilians during a pre-dawn operation Tuesday in eastern Afghanistan. NATO disputed the allegation saying only militants died. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)


ADMIN NOTE:

The insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan remain unique since they both emerged from U.S. attempts to create a Western-styled government in the wake of military-driven regime changes. Ultimately, the U.S. created two "failed/failing" states and is now conducting the "peacekeeping" missions of the 90s. The only difference between today and the 90s is that military and elected U.S. leadership is now willing to take casualties. No significant strategy change has occurred.


Overview

The missions that the U.S. military are most comfortable with are typically counterproductive in COIN operations. Below is a short narrative to illustrate the point.

What would be your reaction if a Predator drone fired a missile into your neighbor's living room while you were sleeping? How long would you complain about it and to whom would you complain? What would be your opinion of your government if the answer you received was "there is nothing we can do?"

The satisfaction of having a violent neighbor meet his demise is overshadowed by the unnerving thought that the missile nearly hit your home. You do not trust the foreign pilot's sources of targeting information to always be accurate because you do not know the pilot. Although you support the removal of terrorists from your neighborhood, you now feel there is an existential threat against your life from foreign forces your government cannot control. You have mentally taken the first step in becoming an insurgent.

The next night, foreign troops raid your other neighbor's home. This neighbor you know to be innocent because he is friendly and helpful to everyone in the neighborhood, even the bad influences. It was his way of keeping the peace in his backyard. You see him and his family dragged away with black bags over their heads as you remember every time you were seen conversing with the recently-deceased terrorist neighbor. The innocent neighbor that was just taken away has always complained over your fence being on his property. Will he take this opportunity in detention to lie about you?

Who then do you turn to? You do not trust the government since they are powerless as demonstrated by the missile strike. You have no means of communicating with the foreign military forces. The only option you believe to have is to talk to the insurgency and hopefully receive their protection. In exchange for re-settling your family to a new location, they ask that you fight in a guerrilla band for a year. With no other options, you accept and are now a wanted fugitive.


What lessons can we take away from this narrative?

1. Strikes that kill an enemy will alienate the population if they do not feel some level of involvement. Local involvement in target selection must be mandatory. Commanders aware of the polarizing effects of air strikes become timid over ordering attacks. This leads to higher "blue force" casualties. Is the life of one of your countrymen worth the life of a foreigner? Most people will answer no, but current DoD policy forces a "yes" decision. In other words, the concept that Iraqi and Afghan lives are more valuable than American lives has been institutionalized by current policy.

2. Capturing raids have an isolating effect same as missile strikes. For whatever reason, the U.S. is far more comfortable conducting these missions in lieu of air strikes. These missions marginalize the power and authority of the local leaders, government officials, and security forces.

3. Logic may identify links between people, but human nature places them into context. The friendly neighbor was often seen with a known terrorist. But knowing the fact that the friendly neighbor was a "social butterfly" would have likely cancelled the raid mission. Instead a publicly known innocent man and his family were traumatized and dragged out of their homes by a foreign force. Respected locals involved in target acquisition would have prevented this raid from ever occurring.


Conclusion

Military actions absent a significant and relevant local partnership will erode any trust in the national government. Local empowerment remains key for foreign forces conducting stabilization missions in a COIN campaign on behalf of a foreign government. Failure to bring existing local power players into the planning process will alienate a population from its national government forcing the populace to seek out alternative power structures. Indigenous local support is far more important than host nation government support.


Epilogue Based Upon Real Events

We have seen missile strikes and raids flip areas against the national government as they become sympathetic to the insurgency.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JI17Df03.html
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1011930
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/missile-strikes-in-pakistan-will-continue-u/415772/
http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/History_of_Iraqi_insurgency
http://www.petermaass.com/articles/the_counterinsurgent/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33458132/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/

Foreign military detention of innocents and insurgents have radicalized some while turning portions of the public against their national government.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18137725
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/latimes932.html
http://www.grindstonejournal.com/7-29-09terror.html
http://www.meforum.org/2040/is-us-detention-policy-in-iraq-working

A mix of motivators drive one into volunteering for suicide bombings. Revenge appears to be the most common motivation second only to retaining/reclaiming family honor. Thought the motivations for suicide operations may span the spectrum, the instigators remain persistent.
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/what-motivates-suicide-bombers-0
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9327.htm
http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Analysis/ANALYSIS_Religion_is_not_the_primary_motivation_of_suicide_bombers_printer.shtml
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18310289

December 22nd Morning Readbook

Yemeni soldiers flashing the V for 'victory' sign. Two people were killed and 10 wounded in two explosions at the site of a suspected Al-Qaeda training camp in southern Yemen which was hit by an air strike last week that also killed 49 civilians. (AFP/File/Khaled Fazaa)


Swindler duped CIA over Al-Qaeda decoding scam: report
A con artist convinced the CIA and other US agencies in 2003 that he could decode secret messages sent by Al-Qaeda through Al-Jazeera broadcasts, Playboy magazine reported.


Al Qaeda in Yemen says it is fighting the US



N. Iraq Suicide Bombing Kills District Council Chief
Iraqi officials say suicide bombing in the north killed 2 people, including a district council chief.


Iraq to challenge Opec on 'fair share' of output
Iraq has set the stage for a fight with fellow Opec members about production levels, warning it has been "deprived of its fair share" of oil output for a long time.


Iran says Iraq border incident a "misunderstanding"
ran on Tuesday described a border incident with Iraq, which caused oil prices to rise late last week, as a "misunderstanding" and called for experts from both countries to look into border demarcation issues.


Police say suicide bomber kills 3 in NW Pakistan
A suicide bomber detonated his explosives outside a press club in northwestern Pakistan on Tuesday, leaving three people dead in the latest attack against the city of Peshawar since the military launched a major offensive near the Afghan border.


Troops, Taliban race to build up local governments
The governor of this remote district in southern Afghanistan has employees he can't afford to pay, a school he struggles to staff with teachers, a clinic where doctors are scarce and a police force of mostly illiterate farmers.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

December 21th Morning Readbook

REUTERS/Adrees Latif


Taliban clash with Afghan forces
Afghan police have clashed with Taliban fighters who attacked a building near a police station in the provincial capital of the eastern province of Paktia, officials have said.


National police Canada's problem in Afghanistan
From a rocky slope above a village in southern Afghanistan last February, Canadian Forces engineer Matt Austin watched a Taliban suspect scramble for safety with troops in hot pursuit.


US combat medics face tough choices in Afghanistan




Demonising America
It was in Ayatollah Khomeini’s Iran that America was labelled The Great Satan. Judging from current trends, the day is not too far off when America will be given the same moniker in Pakistan. Ever since the US resorted to carrying out drone attacks against terrorist suspects inside Pakistan, vocal condemnations of America have been widespread.


Suicide attack kills local leader in northern Iraq
A suicide bomber killed a local leader in northern Iraq on Monday, police said, the latest attack in an area where al Qaeda remains a threat.


Cleric's Death, Torture Case Jolt Iran
Iran's opposition seized upon the death of one of the Islamic republic's founding fathers -- a revered ayatollah who was also a fierce critic of the nation's leadership -- to take to the streets in mourning.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

December 20th Morning Readbook

Iraqi soldiers stand guard outside the Halfaya oil field near the southern city of Amara on December 12. Iranian troops who for three days controversially occupied a disputed border oil well have left the facility during the night but remain on Iraqi soil, Iraq's government spokesman has said. (AFP/File/Essam al-Sudani)


Iraq Says Iranian Troops Withdrawn From Oil Well
Iraqi officials say Iranian troops have withdrawn from a disputed oil well on their border. A government spokesman says the Iranians left during the night. Iraqi officials say 11 Iranian soldiers seized the well (Number 4) in the al-Fakkah oil field in Maysan province Friday, and that Iranian soldiers remained there Saturday.


Mullen Voices Concern About Iran's Influence



Channeling Sunni Rage Into Iraqi Political Clout
Sheik Abdul-Rahman Munshid al-Assi has been making up for the time he lost in an American prison, aggressively diving into Iraqi politics after being held nearly a year on charges of aiding the insurgency. After his release last year, he formed the Arab Political Council to represent Sunni Arabs in Kirkuk. He recruited Sunni candidates to run in the coming national elections. He is forging a political bloc with Arab nationalists, other tribal leaders and former members of Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath Party as a counterweight to Kurds in the province.


The race against Obama's deadline in Afghanistan
Adm. Mike Mullen, the personification of American military power, is walking the streets of this dusty village in Paktika province when the deferential deputy governor, Qadir Gul Zadran, tells him: "We hope you stay here forever."


In Afghan war, officer flourishes outside the box
You may wonder how Thomas Gukeisen made it to lieutenant colonel, and by age 39 at that. He breaks Army rules and operates by his own rendition of counterinsurgency warfare whose arsenal includes Afghan poetry, chaos theory and the thoughts of a 17th-century English philosopher.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

The Bad Neighbor

A worshiper holds a picture of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a rally against opposition supporters who insulted the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, after Friday prayers in Tehran December 18, 2009. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi


While there is about a foot of global warning on the ground keeping me inside today, I thought I would briefly go over some of what Iran has been doing. The worst-case scenario for the dwindling Iraq conflict is that it reignites into a regional state vs. state war engulfing most of the Middle East. The Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen allegedly being bombed by Saudis in a cross-border operation may be a harbinger of events to come.

Here is some of what we have seen from Iran recently:

Crossing into it's new proxy country of Iraq.

Planning to built 10 new uranium enrichment plants.

Downplaying the testing of missiles capable of reaching Eastern Europe.

Backing insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan to fight the U.S.

Holding U.S. hostages.



The Wall Street Journal has a thorough summary on Iranian activity over the past year as well. The good news is that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is concerned over Iranian influence in Iraq. Good on him for taking ten minutes away from Afghanistan to realize what is happening inside Iraq.


How are Iraq's neighbors responding to all of this?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been "the best recruiting officer" for U.S. military efforts to partner with Arab states over the past year. That's according to General David Petraeus, who as commander of Centcom is responsible for overseeing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and security efforts throughout the region. "There were certain countries which used to hold us at arm's length that have over the last year embraced Central Command in certain cooperative endeavors," Petraeus told TIME in an interview on Dec. 13, citing ballistic-missile defense agreements and shared early-warning systems. "Ahmadinejad's rhetoric is very alarming among countries in this region."

The prospects of the worst-case scenario coming to fruition will only rise during the eventual political crisis Iraq will soon face in the wake of its "democratic" election in March. Iran will not accept a Western or Arab friendly government; nor will the Arab neighbors accept another Iranian proxy regime.

Why do I call the Iraqi election an eventual political crisis? The Iraq election law that many called a great success.

First, the Kurds expanded the number of seats they will win in parliament to between 60 and 65. This makes the Kurds kingmakers in determining who will become the next Prime Minister.

Second, the next Prime Minister will almost certainly come from the Shiite majority. The Shiite and Sunni blocs would vote against a Kurd PM for fears of Kurdish domination. The Shiites and the Kurds would vote against a Sunni PM for fears of a Baathist return to power.

Third, the Sunnis put violence on hold in exchange for participating in the political process. Should the results embody their worst fears of Iranian-proxy domination, we can expect a second wave insurgency to spawn from political disenfranchisement most likely supported by Iraq's Arab neighbors.

December 19th Morning Readbook

An Iranian flag is seen at the site of a captured well at Fakka oilfield near Amara, 300 km (186 miles) southeast of Baghdad, December 19, 2009. Iraq's oil industry will not be affected by a reported cross-border incursion by Iranian troops, which Iran denies, the government spokesman said on Saturday. REUTERS/Salah Thani


US: Iraq not 'pushed around' by Iran
Iraq is "not going to be pushed around" by Iran, the top U.S. diplomat in Iraq said Saturday following an Iranian takeover of an oil well along the two nations' disputed border. U.S. officials said they approved of Iraq's speedy defense of its sovereignty amid ongoing concerns over Iran's influence on its Mideast neighbor.


Iraqi official: Iranians seized Iraqi oil well
The Iraqi government on Friday condemned a reported cross-border raid by Iranian soldiers who allegedly raised their flag at an Iraqi oil filed near the border.


Adm. Mullen tours Iraqi market
The top US military officer toured a bustling market on the outskirts of Baghdad on Saturday that is returning to normal as violence ebbs in Iraq.


Pregnant soldiers could face court-martial
A U.S. Army general in northern Iraq has added pregnancy to the list of reasons a soldier under his command could be court-martialed.


Relatives of Iraq hostages make Christmas appeal to kidnappers
Relatives of two men taken hostage in Iraq have made renewed appeals for their release as they prepared to spend their third Christmas unaware if they are dead or alive.


Taliban warns US over Afghan war



Karzai Drafts Cabinet Lineup to Satisfy U.S., Afghan Backers
Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai has drawn up a new cabinet that retains key ministers backed by the West, diminishing fears of a government dominated by former warlords, according to Western diplomats who saw the list.


Why Pakistan may be more willing to help US target Taliban than it appears
A briefing on what the US wants from Pakistan – and why Pakistan might be more willing than it publicly indicates to help the US tackle the Afghan Taliban hiding in Pakistan.


Insurgents forced out of Pakistan's tribal havens form smaller cells in heart of nation
Militants forced to flee their havens in Pakistan's mountainous tribal areas are establishing new, smaller cells in the heart of the country and have begun carrying out attacks nationwide, U.S. and Pakistani officials say.


Officers Warned of Flaw in U.S. Drones in 2004
Senior U.S. military officers working for the Joint Chiefs of Staff discussed the danger of Russia and China intercepting and doctoring video from drone aircraft in 2004, but the Pentagon didn't begin securing the signals until this year, according to people familiar with the matter.


The latest news from Al Jazeera

December 18th Morning Readbook

(AFP/File/Tauseef Mustafa)


Iran helping the Taliban, US ambassador claims
Iran has been providing weapons and other help to the Taliban, the US ambassador to Afghanistan has claimed.


One Battalion’s Trials in Afghanistan
The 21 names inscribed on the white concrete memorial in front of the First Battalion, 17th Infantry headquarters here tell a grim story: the soldiers killed in five months of battling the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.


U.S. lacks a defined mission in Afghanistan
President Barack Obama recently announced his long-awaited strategy for Afghanistan: 30,000 more troops over 18 months with withdrawal and transfer of security responsibility to Afghan forces beginning in summer 2011. Since then, however, uncertainty about actual U.S. intentions in 2011 -- a set departure date or simply a plan for reconsideration -- has only created more jockeying for position in the region.


Bomb blast near mosque kills 10 in Pakistan
A suicide car bomber detonated his explosives near a mosque inside a police compound in northwestern Pakistan on Friday, killing 10 people in the latest attack by suspected Taliban militants waging war against the Pakistani government.


Officials: U.S. missile strikes kill 17 in Pakistan
Two U.S. missile strikes pummeled targets inside the main sanctuary used by al-Qaida and the Taliban along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, killing 17 people Thursday, local intelligence officials said.


Mullen arrives in Iraq
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday he is confident that Iraq will hold elections on March 7 and that the U.S. drawdown will begin on schedule that month.


Iraq, the Kurds and the Americans
Four months ago, with little fanfare, the State Department sent a full-time senior diplomat, Alan Misenheimer, to live in Iraq’s disputed oil-rich city Kirkuk. For the Obama administration, which had been hoping to back out of its day-to-day involvement in Iraq’s fractious politics, it was a smart, if belated, call.


The latest news from Al Jazeera