Basics of COIN Part 7: Threat

(AFP/File/Str)


Existential threats, whether real or perceived, are the primary instigators of insurgent and counterrevolutionary violence. Political grievances can be found everywhere but most do not translate into violent activity. If a people, social network, or class believe they are on the verge of being annihilated, they will defend themselves. In other words, the system of government is irrelevant when there is a widespread belief of violent injustice.

The concept of defending others is a powerful point for indoctrinating new recruits as well as a strong narrative to gain and maintain popular support. This is done on all sides of a conflict as it holds a universal appeal to human nature; defending the weak against aggression. Osama Bin Ladin would consistently portray the U.S. as the aggressors while he was merely defending all the Muslim people.

And that day, it was confirmed to me that oppression and the intentional killing of innocent women and children is a deliberate American policy. Destruction is freedom and democracy, while resistance is terrorism and intolerance.

This means the oppressing and embargoing to death of millions as Bush Sr did in Iraq in the greatest mass slaughter of children mankind has ever known, and it means the throwing of millions of pounds of bombs and explosives at millions of children - also in Iraq - as Bush Jr did, in order to remove an old agent and replace him with a new puppet to assist in the pilfering of Iraq's oil and other outrages.

So with these images and their like as their background, the events of September 11th came as a reply to those great wrongs, should a man be blamed for defending his sanctuary?

Is defending oneself and punishing the aggressor in kind, objectionable terrorism? If it is such, then it is unavoidable for us.

Osama Bin Ladin - November 2004

Whether the threat is real or imagined is irrelevant. It simply must be believed in order for violence to occur. This is the most crucial information to discover about a local area. Identify the rumors, truth, and spin propagating the belief of an existential threat. Countering this belief is essential to countering insurgents and counterrevolutionaries.

A word of caution. If a foreign force or host nation government is determined to violently neutralize a group of people, negating the perceptions of an existential threat may ultimately facilitate an attempt at genocide similar to what we witnessed in Iraq after the parliamentary elections and government formation in 2006. When people have no option but to fight or die, they will do exactly that.

February 11th Morning Readbook

Opposition on Iran's anniversary




Joe Biden update: Iraq one of Obama's 'great achievements'
    I am very optimistic about -- about Iraq. I mean, this could be one of the great achievements of this administration. You're going to see 90,000 American troops come marching home by the end of the summer. You're going to see a stable government in Iraq that is actually moving toward a representative government.


Biden: Qaeda moving to small, frightening attacks
Vice President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that al Qaeda was moving in the direction of smaller but "devastatingly frightening" attacks and he viewed the chance of another September 11-style mass assault as unlikely.


Iraq Oil Line Bombed; Output Drops
Attackers bombed a frequently attacked oil pipeline north of Baghdad, slowing production at a refinery in the capital by half, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said Wednesday.


Afghan campaign seeks to avoid Iraq mistakes
Chances of success for a NATO offensive in the last big Taliban bastion in Afghanistan's Helmand province may depend on ensuring the operation doesn't repeat the destruction of Fallujah in Iraq in 2004.


Taliban, Marines exchange fire as battle looms
U.S. Marines and Taliban insurgents exchanged gunfire Thursday on the outskirts of Marjah, a southern militant stronghold where American and Afghan forces are expected to launch a major attack in the coming days.


Iran opposes Taliban reintegration
Tehran rejected plans to make peace with moderate Taliban members as part of a broad reconciliation effort unveiled by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.


Qaeda threats should be taken seriously: Yemen FM
Yemen's foreign minister has warned that Al-Qaeda threats should be taken seriously, after a top militant said the network's local branch aims to seize control of a strategic international waterway.


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February 10th Morning Readbook

Expatriate Iraqis look at a candidates list at a polling station in Amman in 2005. At least 10 polling stations are to open in Jordan for Iraqi expatriates to take part in their country's March 7 election, as part of worldwide out-of-country voting, Iraq's ambassador said on Tuesday. (AFP/File/Khalil Mazraawi)


Iraq poll candidate ban appeals wrongly presented  
Almost all the candidates who contested their ban from Iraq's upcoming parliamentary election did not submit their cases properly and may have lost the chance to appeal, an Iraqi legal body said on Tuesday. Nearly 500 candidates for Iraq's March 7 vote were disqualified from standing in the election by the Justice and Accountability Commission for alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party, sparking political uproar.


Security developments in Iraq, Feb 10
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed two policemen and wounded four others on the western outskirts of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded three people including a district official in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A sticky bomb attached to the car of an Iraqi soldier wounded him in eastern Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed a civilian and wounded six others on Tuesday in eastern Mosul, police said.


Iraq Kurdistan oil exports to resume in coming days
Iraq expects to announce the resumption of oil exports from its northern Kurdistan region in the "coming days", Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told reporters on Wednesday.


Pakistani officials: Taliban chief is dead
Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud has died, the country's top civilian security official told The Associated Press Wednesday, giving the government's first categorical confirmation of the death of the feared militant leader.


Marines plan joint mission to eject insurgents from last Helmand stronghold
In the late 1950s, scores of U.S. engineers transformed a swath of uninhabited desert in southern Afghanistan into verdant farmland by constructing a network of irrigation canals fed by the Helmand River. The Afghan government filled the area, which it called Marja, with Pashtun nomads and told them to grow wheat.


Toll Mounts in Afghan Avalanche
High in the Hindu Kush mountain range, Basir Salangi, a senior provincial official, surveyed a vista of tragedy on Wednesday after avalanches buried hundreds of cars and severed Kabul’s heavily traveled link to northern Afghanistan. The death toll seemed far higher, he said, than initially feared.


Yemen getting tougher with Somalis on Qaeda fears
Somalis fleeing war have long found refuge in Yemen, seen as a way station to Saudi Arabia, but fear of al Qaeda infiltration has cooled their welcome.


Opposing view: 'We need no lectures' By John Brennan
Politics should never get in the way of national security. But too many in Washington are now misrepresenting the facts to score political points, instead of coming together to keep us safe.


Brennan: Political 'fear-mongering' serves 'the goals of al-Qaeda'
President Obama's top counter-terrorism adviser asserted Tuesday that "too many in Washington are now misrepresenting the facts to score political points" regarding the administration's handling of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the alleged Christmas Day bomber.


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Vindication Via Kilcullen

Last week we posted our sixth installment of the Basics of COIN series dealing with violence as a metric. We noted that violence is an indication of disputed territory, not an indication of stability.  Yesterday, David Kilcullen was highlighted on Tom Ricks' blog discussing what not to measure in a COIN environment.

"SIGACTs, especially those involving violence against the coalition." This is a related point. Be wary of SIGACTs trends. Violence may be low in an area simply because it is in the uncontested control of the enemy.

You can read Ricks' full entry here.

February 9th Morning Readbook

Iraq's former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi gestures while answering questions during an interview with Reuters in Baghdad February 8, 2010. A ban on election candidates accused of links with Saddam Hussein's Baath party threatens to drag Iraq into civil war, a former prime minister and head of a group seen as a strong contender in the polls said on Monday. (REUTERS/Mohammed Ameen)


Most banned Iraqi poll candidates' appeals rejected
Almost all the candidates who contested their ban from Iraq's upcoming parliamentary election did not submit their cases properly and lost the chance to appeal, an Iraqi legal body said on Tuesday.


Ba'ath ban sparks fears
A ban on election candidates accused of links to Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led Ba'ath party is threatening to drag Iraq into civil war, a former prime minister said yesterday.


In Northern Iraq, a Vote Seems Likely to Split
There was a hope, not long ago, that democracy would mean peace and stability for Nineveh, a place where cultures and armies have clashed since biblical times. Instead, democracy is hardening divisions — of people, of resources, of land — in ways that threaten the future of Iraq itself.


Taliban claim to debut new bomb 'Omar'
The Taliban claimed Tuesday to have developed a new bomb nicknamed Omar after their fugitive leader and which they say is impossible Western mine sweepers to detect.


Pakistani Military Retakes Key Town in Tribal Belt From Taliban
The Pakistani military has retaken the key town of Damadola, in the Bajaur area of the tribal belt, where the army has been fighting Taliban militants for more than a year, military and local officials said Monday.


Yemen: Qaeda Affiliate Urges Joint Blockade of Red Sea
The Yemen-based wing of Al Qaeda called Monday for a regional holy war and a blockade of the Red Sea to cut off shipments to Israel. In an audio recording posted on a jihadist Web site, the group’s deputy leader, Said Ali al-Shihri, called on the Somali insurgent group Shabab to help block the strait that separates Yemen from the Horn of Africa. The Shabab does not control the African side of the strait.


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The Fall of Saigon: April 29-30, 1975

February 8th Morning Readbook

Afghanistan's influential elders




Senior Afghan policeman held over planting bombs
A senior Afghan policeman has been arrested in connection with planting and storing roadside bombs, Nato officials said.


INTERVIEW-NATO, Afghans to hold Taliban bastion "forever"
NATO forces and their Afghan allies will hold territory seized from the Taliban in an imminent major operation "forever", the commander of British forces in southern Afghanistan's Helmand province said.


India-Pakistan thaw key to Afghan peace 
India has proposed the first high-level bilateral talks with Pakistan since their peace process broke down following the terrorist attack on Mumbai in November 2008.


Al-Qaeda is a wounded but dangerous enemy
In the past six weeks, Americans have witnessed two jarringly different -- but completely accurate -- views of al-Qaeda's terrorist network. One image was that of terrorist leaders being hunted down and killed by satellite-guided, pilotless aircraft. The other was of an agile foe slipping past U.S. defenses and increasingly intent on striking inside the United States.


Iraq's parliament delays debate over candidates ban
The Iraqi parliament postponed to Monday an extraordinary session due to be held on Sunday to discuss the decision of an appeals panel to allow hundreds of banned candidates to run in the March 7 parliamentary elections.


Iraq terrorist group kidnap two Americans
The terrorist group responsible for the deaths of at least three British security contractors in Iraq says it has now seized two Americans. "The League of the Righteous " has already released a video of one of the men, an Iraqi-American named as Issa Salomi, a civilian employed by the Pentagon. Mr Salomi went missing on January 23. The identity of the second hostage has not been made clear, but it is thought it could be another Iraqi-American, an army sergeant who disappeared while on an unauthorised visit to his family in 2006.


Iran to enrich uranium to 20% as nuclear fears grow
Iran has announced immediate plans to step up its nuclear programme, which Western nations fear could be used to make a bomb.


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February 7th Morning Readbook

Militant Video Shows Abducted American in Iraq




Iraq militant group says it's holding American hostage
In a video, a man believed to be Issa Salomi calls for Iraqi prisoners to be released. The Defense Department says Salomi, a civilian contractor, has been unaccounted for since Jan. 23.


Iranian-backed Shia terror group kidnaps US civilian in Baghdad
An Iranian-backed Shia terror group that claims it seeks reconciliation with the Iraqi government has kidnapped a US civilian in Baghdad. The US recently released the top leader of the group under the guise of a reconciliation program, but the release actually was related to a hostage exchange.


Iraq Shi'ite leaders vow Baath purge as furor grows
Iraq's Shi'ite parties held emotional demonstrations on Sunday and vowed to purge loyalists of Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party as tensions over a list of candidates banned from a March election soared.


Planned Afghan assault to send 'strong signal': McChrystal
Dubbed Operation Mushtarak, the operation will "send a strong signal that the Afghan government is expanding its security control," said US General Stanley McChrystal, who commands 113,000 US and NATO forces fighting the militants.


Karachi violence blow to Pakistan economy
A wave of political and sectarian violence sweeping Karachi threatens heavy financial losses in the country's economic hub, where analysts fear Islamists are bent on fanning maximum instability.


Pakistan says seizes Taliban base on Afghan border
Pakistani forces have captured a stronghold of al Qaeda-backed militants near the Afghan border after days of clashes in which 60 militants were killed, the military said.


Yemen arrests embassy bomb threat suspect
Yemen has arrested a man suspected of threatening to bomb foreign embassies in the capital Sanaa and to assassinate Yemeni political and military leaders, state media reported on Sunday.


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Teach Yourself U.S. COIN Theory for Conventional Forces

The U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center has an 11 part series that is definitely worth skimming. The PowerPoints are accompanied by recorded lecture segments for each individual slide. The lectures are broken up as follows:

 1)  HTS COIN Intro

 2)  COIN 101 Part 1

 3)  COIN 101 Part 2

 4)  Foundations of Insurgency

 5)  Understanding The Environment

 6)  Clear Hold Build

 7)  Culture and Situational Awareness

 8)  COIN Do's and Don'ts Part 1

 9)  COIN Do's and Don'ts Part 2

10)  COIN Lessons Learned

11)  COIN Resources

12)  Audio Clips

There is a constant mentioning of "death by PowerPoint" repeated in nearly every lecture which get irritating. Other than that, it is an outstanding resource for what the U.S. military currently believes will solve the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

I could not find mention of actual COIN missions conducted by units specially trained in counterinsurgency. Probably the best example is Joint Special Operations Task Force - Philippines. The Big Army needs to get over its complex of trying to be just like Special Forces. Placing cooks into Jump School and stealing the beret are one thing, but claiming ownership over a mission as delicate as COIN is a potential recipe for disaster. Somewhere along the line the COIN lessons from Vietnam were lost.

February 6th Morning Readbook

The family of Saleema Hussein, who was killed Friday by a bombing, carry her coffin for burial in the Shiite city of Najaf.(AP Photo/Alaa al-Marjani)


Iraq’s elections could be a turning point — backwards
Iraq’s elections next month are a major fork in the road of the country’s post-election development. One way leads towards increasing stability and political freedom; the other marks the route back to sectarianism and violence.


Law, tolerance needed to resolve Iraq's candidate ban row
Top Iraqi leaders are expected to meet on Saturday to discuss a row over an appeals panel's decision to allow some 500 barred candidates to run in the March 7 parliamentary election, which is seen as a crucial test for the war and violence-shattered country's national reconciliation and political process.


Deadly blasts hit Iraq Karbala city 
At least 40 people have been killed and more than 140 others wounded in two explosions that rocked the Iraqi city of Karbala as hundreds of thousands of Shia pilgrims observed a major religious rite.


Iraq election triggers US-Iran power struggle
Preparations for the Iraqi parliamentary elections have been thrown into chaos by a row over whether or not to uphold a ban on hundreds of candidates, because of alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party.


Q&A - Iraq's Baath party furore - what's it all about?
Iraqi politics is in turmoil over a list of nearly 500 candidates barred from an election because of alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party. The furore at first pitted once dominant Sunnis against the Shi'ite-led majority. Sunnis, who dominated Iraq under Saddam and whose resentment at their fall from power helped fuel a powerful insurgency, suspected the ban unfairly targeted them.


Afghan police kill seven civilians 'by mistake'
Afghan police have shot dead seven villagers near the Pakistani border after mistaking them for insurgents, police officials said.


Taliban prepare defences against US and UK offensive
A wall of booby-trapped mines has been laid by the Taliban to protect their last strongholds in central Helmand as they prepare to hold off a major allied assault, British commanders have disclosed.


Pakistan tense as mourners bury bomb victims
Pakistan's commercial capital Karachi was tense Saturday a day after two bombs killed 31 people, raising further questions about the effectiveness of security crackdowns on al Qaeda-linked militants.


Yemeni American cleric Aulaqi confirms contact with Nigerian suspect
Yemeni American cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi said he taught and corresponded with the suspect in the attempted Dec. 25 airliner bombing but did not order the attack, according to an interview published this week.


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