Al Qaeda Presence in Yemen is Not New

Suspected al-Qaeda members sit behind bars at the state security court in Sanaa. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah


Yemen cautious on battle against al-Qaeda - 23 January 2002

FBI Director Robert Mueller was in Yemen on Monday as part of a Middle East tour designed to bolster Arab support and capability in the war against al-Qaeda and other militant groups.

The United States has begun to look beyond Afghanistan in the fight against al-Qaeda and much of the attention is being focused on countries like Yemen - a poor, mountainous nation on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula where militants have been able to hide.

The Yemeni Government says it has arrested two al-Qaeda militants named by the US, but that another three men on Washington's wanted list remain at large.

It has not been easy for Yemen to make arrests because the suspects enjoy the protection of powerful tribes who are armed and rarely take much notice of government orders.


Yemeni al-Qaeda terrorist on wanted list: report - November 25 2002

A senior al-Qaeda operative from Yemen is one of three "critical" suspects being hunted by authorities over the Bali bombing, Time magazine reported today.

In their latest edition, Time identified the Yemeni as Syafullah, whose activities included the 1996 bombing of a US military barracks in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 servicemen.

Time said one of the other two "top tier" suspects was an Indonesian militant named Syawal, who was an instructor at an al-Qaeda-linked training camp near Poso on the island of Sulawesi.

The other man police are hunting is a Malaysian, Zubair, who reportedly fought in Afghanistan in the late 1980s and is suspected of leading the surveillance and mapping team for the October 12 Bali attack.

If proved, Syafullah could be the first member of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation, which carried out last year's September 11 attacks on the United States, to be directly linked to the Bali bombings.


Al-Qaeda ties sought in Yemen killings - January 1 2003

Yemeni interrogators suspect the man accused of killing three American missionaries at a Baptist hospital may have ties to al-Qaeda, officials said Tuesday, and U.S. investigators joined the search for those behind the murders.

Two of the slain Americans were buried Tuesday in the southern Yemeni town of Jibla, where each had worked for more than two decades and where the attack took place. The third was to be flown to the United States.


CFR - Terrorism Havens: Yemen   December 2005

Is Yemen a haven for terrorism?

Yes. Yemen, located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a poor Muslim country with a weak central government, armed tribal groups in outlying areas, and porous borders, which makes it fertile ground for terrorists. Its government has tried to help the United States after September 11, and the State Department calls Yemen “an important partner in the campaign against terrorism, providing assistance in the military, diplomatic, and financial arenas.” But experts say that terrorists live in Yemen, sometimes with government approval; Yemen-based corporations are thought to help fund Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network; and Yemenis affiliated with al-Qaeda have targeted U.S. interests in Yemen, including the October 2000 bombing of the navy destroyer U.S.S. Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden .

Since the bombing of the Cole, has al-Qaeda planned other attacks against targets in Yemen?

Yes. In June 2001, local authorities in Yemen arrested eight Yemeni veterans of the 1979-89 Afghan war against the Soviets in connection with a plot to blow up the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, Yemen ’s capital. In July 2002, an accidental explosion that killed two al-Qaeda operatives led to the seizure of 650 pounds of plastic explosives from a Sanaa warehouse. A Kuwaiti citizen suspected of ties to al-Qaeda was arrested in Kuwait and admitted to plotting the October 2002 bombing of a French oil tanker off the Yemeni coast. Three American missionaries were killed in December 2002 in a southern Yemeni village, but it is unclear if the alleged killer, a local Islamist militant, had any links to al-Qaeda.

How big an al-Qaeda presence is there in Yemen?

It’s impossible to say precisely, but dozens of al-Qaeda operatives, including senior officials, may be at large in Yeme , experts say. Yemen was second only to Saudi Arabia in being the source of soldiers for the international Islamist brigade that fought against Soviet forces in Afghanistan and that gave birth to al-Qaeda. Thousands—perhaps tens of thousands—of Yemenis fought in Afghanistan or trained in al-Qaeda’s camps there. Yemeni officials say that not every Yemeni veteran of the war in Afghanistan is an al-Qaeda member; nevertheless, Yemeni prisoners make up one of the largest national contingents of detainees at the U.S. prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba .


Al-Qaeda and Yemen - December 31, 2009

Al-Qaeda has used Yemen as a base to launch attacks against U.S. interests since the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. Some major events:

Oct. 12, 2000

USS Cole attack

Al-Qaeda militants ram the USS Cole with an explosives-packed speedboat off the southern city of Aden, killing 17 U.S. sailors.

Nov. 3, 2002

Al-Qaeda figure killed

Abu Ali al-Harithi, reputed head of the group al-Qaeda in Yemen, is killed in eastern Yemen by a missile fired at his car by a Predator drone. Harithi was a suspect in the attack on the USS Cole.

Early 2006

Jailbreak in Sanaa

Twenty-three people, at least 13 of them convicted al-Qaeda fighters, escape from a prison in Sanaa, Yemen's capital, through a 140-yard-long tunnel. Jamal Badawi, who had been convicted of plotting, preparing and helping to carry out the Cole bombing, was among the fugitives. U.S. and Yemeni officials said the prisoners were aided by Yemeni intelligence officials sympathetic to al-Qaeda.

Five Days in Iraq

People gather at the site of a bombing in the holy city of Karbala, Iraq, Friday, Feb. 5, 2010. A twin car bombing targeted a crowd of Shiite pilgrims packing a highway as they walked to a holy city south of Baghdad for a major religious ceremony. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Daily violence has unarguably declined since its peak during sectarian civil war, but it would be a mistake to call this current period dominated by daily assassinations of security personnel and sectarian mass murdering a success.


February 1st

BAGHDAD - A female suicide bomber blew herself up among Shi'ite pilgrims on the outskirts of the Iraqi capital, killing at least 41 and wounding 106 others, security officials said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb in southern Baghdad wounded 12 Shi'ite pilgrims when it exploded, an Interior Ministry source said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb planted in a market wounded four people in the town of Hamdaniya, 40 km (30 miles) east of Mosul, police said. The town in an area disputed between Iraqi Kurds and Arabs has seen frequent attacks.

MOSUL - U.S. soldiers killed three suspected insurgents and wounded another who it says were planting roadside bombs near a major road on Saturday south of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

MOSUL - A civilian was wounded when gunmen attacked an Iraqi army checkpoint in western Mosul, police said.

February 2nd

MOSUL - Iraqi security forces backed by U.S. troops killed one suspected insurgent and arrested two others in a raid southeast of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead one person inside his house in western Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen hurled a hand grenade at a police patrol, wounding three people including a policeman, in central Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a driver inside his car in western Mosul, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three Shi'ite pilgrims in the Zaafaraniya district of southeastern Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.

TAJI - A bomb attached to a car wounded a policeman in the town of Taji, 20 km (12 miles) north of Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.

GARMA - A roadside bomb injured five policemen in the town of Garma, 30 km (20 miles) northwest of Baghdad, police said.

February 3rd

KERBALA - A bomb on a cart killed at least 20 Shi'ite pilgrims and wounded 110 others in Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said.

KERBALA - A bomb attached to a military vehicle killed three people and wounded 21 others in eastern Kerbala on Tuesday night, police said.

KIRKUK - Gunmen shot and killed a police officer near his house in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb targeting Shi'ite pilgrims killed one pilgrim and wounded three others in Western Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three people in the Amil district of southwest Baghdad, police said.

February 4th

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a man leaving a mosque in a drive-by shooting in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

February 5th

KERBALA - Two car bombs killed at least 40 people and wounded 145 others in Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, health officials said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb struck a bus carrying pilgrims, killing one and wounding 13 others in eastern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A sniper wounded one pilgrim in Zayouna district of eastern Baghdad, a Baghdad security spokesman said.

MOSUL - Police found the body of a kidnapping victim riddled with bullets in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded one Iraqi soldier on foot patrol in western Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Unknown gunmen killed two policemen in an attack on a checkpoint south of Mosul, police said.

February 5th Morning Readbook

A man walks past a torn poster of Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki posing with the country's soccer team, on a street in Basra, 420 km (260 miles) southeast of Baghdad, February 5, 2010. REUTERS/Atef Hassan


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McChrystal Sees Signs of Progress In Push to Stabilize Afghanistan
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February 4th Morning Readbook

REUTERS


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NYC conviction doesn't silence Pakistani scientist
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Basics of COIN Part 6: Violence

 

Afghan men attend a meeting, or shura, where local tribal elders convene with U.S. Marines on base Delaram in Nimroz province, southern Afghanistan January 9, 2010. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Violence is easily one of the worst indicators for determining COIN success or failure. Levels of violence will rise when host nation or foreign forces conduct security operations and will fall once those missions are complete. Conversely, insurgent-initiated violence will rise when they are taking over territory and will fall once that area is under their control. In other words, violence is an indicator of disputed territory, not an indicator of stability.

Areas that experienced a spike in violence that later subsided without either a host nation or foreign forces security operation or some sort of local political accommodation with the host nation government are likely under insurgent control. This is true for classic styled insurgencies and counterrevolutionaries. The primary difference between the two is that an insurgency will stand up an alternative government structure whereas counterrevolutionaries seek the expulsion of the new host nation government. This commonality gives us a practical means to measure COIN success.

Bernard Fall, arguably the greatest COIN theorist and practitioner of the 20th century, used a similar method during the Vietnam conflict. By plotting areas where village chiefs were murdered AND the government of Vietnam was not collecting taxes, Fall identified areas under Vietcong control. The methodology employed was explained in his paper, The Theory and Practice of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency.

When I returned to Viet-Nam in 1957, after the Indochina War had been over for two years, everybody was telling me that the situation was fine. However, I noticed in the South Vietnamese press obituaries of village chiefs, and I was bothered. I thought there were just too many obituaries--about one a day--allegedly killed not by communists, but by "unknown elements," and by "bandits." I decided to plot out a year's worth of dead village officials. The result was that I counted about 452 dead village chiefs to my knowledge at that time. Then I also saw in the press, and here and there in Viet-Nam heard, discussions about "bandit attacks." These attacks were not made at random, but in certain areas. That too worried me, so I decided to plot the attacks. I immediately noted in both cases a very strange pattern. The attacks on the village chiefs were "clustered" in certain areas.

I went to see the Vietnamese Minister of the Interior, Nguyen Huu Chau, who then was, incidentally, the brother-in-law of Madame Nhu [Diem's sister-in-law], and I said to him: "Your Excellency, there is something I'm worried about. You know that I was in the North when the French were losing and I noticed the village chiefs disappearing and I think you now have the same problem here." He said, "What do you mean?" So I just showed him the map. He said, "Well, since you found that out all by yourself, let me show you my map." And he pulled out a map which showed not only the village chiefs but also the communist cells operating in South Viet-Nam in 1957-58, when Viet-Nam was at peace and there was supposedly nothing going on. It was wonderful. We all congratulated each other. Yet, very obviously, to use a somewhat unscientific term, the whole Mekong Delta was going "to hell in a basket," and much of South Viet-Nam with it.1

The insurgency cross-check was unexpectedly provided to me by the International Control Commission. They get reports from the communists as well as from our side, but in this case what interested me was the alleged incidents inside South Viet-Nam. The communists would report from Hanoi, through the ICC, that Americans or Vietnamese were doing certain things out in the villages which Hanoi alleged were "violations" of the ceasefire agreement. I said to myself, "If I plot out all the communist reports about alleged violations on a map, and if they match high-incident areas, there may be a logical connection between the guerrilla operators and the intelligence operators who provide the basis for the ICC reports." Sure enough the same areas with the high incidents also had high reports. As of early 1958, I knew we were in deep trouble in Viet-Nam and I kept saying so.

In 1959 the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization gave me a research grant to do a study on communist infiltration in the area. . . . One of the results of the study: Saigon was deliberately encircled and cut off from the hinterland with a "wall" of dead village chiefs. President Kennedy, in his second State of the Union message on May 25, 1961, stated that during the past year (meaning April 1960-61) the communists killed 4,000 minor officials in Viet-Nam! This was one year before the [Maxwell] Taylor Report which got the whole American major effort going. In other words, in 1960 and 1961 the communists killed 11 village officials a day. By the time we woke up and learned that we had a problem, the communists had killed about 10,000 village chiefs in a country that has about 16,000 villages. This, gentlemen, is "control"--not the military illusion of it.

From then on, it was open and shut. One year later, in 1963, somebody discovered that my system of judging insurgent control from tax returns was applicable to South Viet-Nam also. . . . [The U.S. Agency for International Development, or AID, produced figures that] reflected the situation for March- May 1963, six months before Diem was overthrown, and four months before the Buddhist outbreaks. To make a long story short, in 27 provinces the communists . . . were formally collecting taxes with bonds, receipts, and tax declarations. In [ten more areas] they were collecting taxes on an informal basis. There were only three provinces out of forty-five which reported no communist tax collections!

In closing, determining if an area is under insurgent control is best accomplished by identifying territory where there is no host nation presence and any attempts for the host nation government to establish itself are met with violence and subversion.

February 3rd Morning Readbook

Americans allege Pakistan torture




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60 Minutes: The Quiet Professionals

60 Minutes spent over two months with a Green Beret unit as they trained a group of Afghan soldiers and then went into battle with them against the Taliban. Lara Logan reports.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

February 2nd Morning Readbook

Female Suicide Bomber Hits Iraqi Pilgrims




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Cold War-Style Poker with Iran

 

Photo courtesy of wired.com/dangerroom

This is a bit on the conventional side but I am posting this due to the potential implications for Iraq. Over the past several years, many have stated that the worst possible outcome for the Iraq war would be an expansion into a regional war. As Iran's saber rattling continues, Iraq may not be the cause of a regional conflict but certainly one of the main battlefields. Which side would the new Iraq ally with in a regional war? 

The United States has begun beefing up its approach to defending its Persian Gulf allies against potential Iranian missile strikes, officials say. The defenses are being stepped up in advance of possible increased sanctions against Iran.

The Obama administration has quietly increased the capability of land-based Patriot defensive missiles in several Gulf Arab nations, and one military official said the Navy is increasing the presence of ships capable of knocking out hostile missiles in flight.

The officials discussed aspects of the defensive strategy Saturday on condition of anonymity because some elements are classified.

You can read the full article here.

February 1st Morning Readbook

The Pakistani army said Sunday, Jan. 31, 2010 it was investigating reports that Mehsud died from injuries sustained in a U.S. drone missile strike in mid-January. (AP Photo/Ishtiaq Mehsud, File)


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