Members of Syria-based Iraqi factions attend the Baath Party's first public meeting in Damascus, dedicated to "the national Iraqi resistance." (AFP/Louai Beshara)
It is hard to determine who will make a greater come-from-behind, the Taliban or the Baath Party. Saddam's outlawed cadre has been used as a political straw man by the Shiite-dominated and Iranian-allied democratic Iraqi government since 2009. Recently, the Baath held their first public meeting in Damascus calling for a reunification of the party. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki blamed the Al Qaeda in Iraq bombing campaign in Baghdad on the Baath in Syria, a claim the Baathists denied. Maliki's accusations deteriorated relations with Syria. It will be interesting to see Maliki's reaction to this Baathist convention in Syria as he continues his attempt to steal the parliamentary election.
Saddam's loyalists in Syria blast US
Supporters of Iraq's late dictator Saddam Hussein gathered in Damascus Thursday to denounce the U.S. "occupation" of Iraq and demand that his loyalists unite. About 500 Saddam loyalists, including members of his outlawed Baath Party, vowed to continue their support to what they called "Iraqi national resistance," a term they widely use to describe Iraqi insurgents attacking only U.S. forces.
Iraq's banned Baath holds first public meeting in Syria
Iraq's banned Baath party, booted out of power in the 2003 US-led invasion, held its first public meeting in the Syrian capital on Thursday. "We have launched negotiations to reunite the party," Ghazwan Qubaissi, the number two in a wing led by Mohammed Yunes al-Ahmad, a former governor of Mosul under now executed dictator and Baath chief Saddam Hussein, told AFP.
Although many would like to take credit for the alleged success of the Iraq COIN campaign, a simple Google search reveals some of the earliest advocates for a tribal engagement strategy. The following is an excerpt from an 8 July2003 Brookings Institution article:
How can the coalition and the new Iraqi government best rein in tribal power? There is no alternative to military action in cases of hard-core resistance, such as Fallujah. Yet it should be possible to control most local tribal challenges as the old regime usually did, simply by effective policing and nonviolent displays of force (although the regime also employed extreme violence to put down political opposition). Nevertheless, the most potent vehicle for central government control is the distribution of government services and other benefits. The Iraqi countryside desperately needs new infrastructure, as well as many basic services and goods, such as purified water, treated sewage, roads, electricity, schools, hospitals, agricultural machinery, fertilizers, irrigation systems, and even high-quality seeds. Within a few months the central government in Baghdad, whether it is still largely run by the coalition forces or by Iraqis, should be able to provide all this and more—even to the most remote villages. At that point, tribal shaykhs will have to work with the government or risk being overthrown by their own people.
As we constantly state on this blog, if you understand the culture the strategy writes itself. You can read the full article, "The Iraqi Tribes and the Post-Saddam System" here.
Anyone believing that a "clear, hold, build" strategy is the key to a new democratic Afghanistan needs to watch this Frontline special on bacha bazi in Afghanistan.
Just for clarification, the ISAF mission is far more realistic than some of the expectations from civilian COINdinistas.
From ISAF's page:
ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conducts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate improvements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environment for sustainable stability that is observable to the population.
I have no idea what that actually means but it is ambiguous enough that anything shy of a civil war can be defined as mission success.
Here is the full episode documenting the starting point in the uphill battle for social reform in Afghanistan.
If we look at the bell curve chart of violence in Iraq, we notice that the steep rise began when the Mahdi Army initiated a genocidal campaign with the support of Iraqi forces against the Sunnis. This occurred during the goverment formation period in 2006. We also notice the steep drop in violence just after Muqtada al Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to stand down.
Due to the actions of a "defeated" and "decapitated" Al Qaeda in Iraq, Muqtada al Sadr has called for the return of the Mahdi Army.
The most deadly attacks targeted Shi'ite neighborhoods and mosques in Baghdad's Sadr city, where a movement led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is based.
Sadr released a statement late Friday calling on his followers to form brigades within the police force and army to defend their places of worship, homes and communities. Sadr said they must not rely on U.S. forces in Iraq to defend themselves.
Anti-U.S. cleric offers Iraq government help after attacks
Anti-U.S. Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr offered to help the Iraqi government maintain security after bomb attacks against Shi'ites killed 56 people in Baghdad in an apparent backlash by Sunni insurgents.
Sadr's offer of the use of his paramilitary Mehdi Army late Friday was made at a sensitive time for Iraq following a March election that produced no clear winner and left a power vacuum for insurgents to exploit.
Iraq govt says Sadr security help not needed
The Iraqi government said on Saturday that an offer by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to help boost security at strategic sites was unnecessary, in the wake of anti-Shiite attacks in Baghdad.
A paper displays photographs of a man the Iraqi government claims to be al-Qaida leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi at a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, April 19, 2010. (Xinhua/AFP Photo)
Two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq are killed in raid
The two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq were slain in a U.S. airstrike over the weekend, a decisive tactical victory for American and Iraqi forces and one that provides Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with additional political leverage at a crucial time.
Iraq announces killing of another senior al-Qaida leader
Iraq announced Tuesday the killing of another senior leader of al-Qaida group in the country, an official television reported. "Iraqi security forces killed the terrorist Ahmed al-Obaidi, also known as Abu Suhaib, the military leader for Qaida terrorist organization in the provinces of Nineveh, Kirkuk and Salahudin," the state-run television of Iraqia, quoted Mohammed al-Askari media advisor of the Iraqi Defence Ministry as saying.
Secret prison revealed in Baghdad
Hundreds of Sunni men disappeared for months into a secret Baghdad prison under the jurisdiction of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's military office, where many were routinely tortured until the country's Human Rights Ministry gained access to the facility, Iraqi officials say.
Iraq judicial panel orders recount
An Iraqi judicial panel on Monday ordered a manual recount of about 2.5 million ballots cast in Baghdad in last month's national elections, an action requested by Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's alliance, which had filed allegations of vote fraud.
In a shocking display of alleged competency, Iraqi security forces killed the top two leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq according to United States Forces - Iraq. General Odierno stated “the death of these terrorists is potentially the most significant blow to al-Qaeda in Iraq since the beginning of the insurgency,” which I would have to disagree. I think that whole Awakening / Sons of Iraq movement which was part of "the Surge" had a greater impact.
Notice the photos Maliki held up as "proof" the two al Qaeda leaders were killed. My understanding was that Iraqis spoke Arabic.
Meanwhile, as U.S. Forces were high-fiving each other over the successful Iraqi forces mission, Prime Minister Maliki continued his campaign to legally steal the Iraqi election as an Iraqi court ordered a manual recount of the ballots in Baghdad.
I encourage anyone still holding the belief that modern U.S. COIN doctrine can create a self-sustaining Jeffersonian democracy in Afghanistan to google the term in the title. PBS Frontline will air an episode covering bacha bazi on April 20th. Here is a short clip.
Iran maintains that its positive influence in Iraq is mistaken as interference but when Iraqi politicians met in Tehran to discuss the formation of a new government, Iran's power was unmistakeable. Inside Iraq discusses Iran's influence in Iraq.
Iraq PM: Sunni-backed bloc must be in govt
Iraq's Shiite prime minister said Friday the Sunni-backed political coalition that is headed by his archrival and won the most seats in last month's parliamentary election must be included in the country's new government.
Suicide bombers kill 30 in Pakistan
Two suicide bombers attacked a refugee camp in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 30 people and injuring more than 70 in what appeared to be retaliation for the military's latest offensive against Taliban insurgents in the volatile tribal areas' Orakzai region.
Pakistan: Deadly Attack at Hospital
A suicide bomber attacked a hospital emergency room filled with Shiite mourners on Friday in Quetta, killing eight people, including a journalist and two police officers. Journalists were at the hospital covering the aftermath of the shooting of a prominent Shiite bank manager, who was attacked earlier in the day. The emergency room was full of his friends and relatives when the bomber struck, the police said, in what they called a sectarian attack.
Taliban targets U.S. contractors working on projects in Afghanistan
The Taliban has begun regularly targeting U.S. government contractors in southern Afghanistan, stepping up use of a tactic that is rattling participating firms and could undermine development projects intended to stem the insurgency, according to U.S. officials.
Osama bin Laden's Facebook account disabled
Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's profile on social networking website Facebook has been shut down, after a security expert raised the issue with the website's U.S. owners.
A Kyrgyz interim leader says US base unjustified
A top official in Kyrgyzstan's interim government told The Associated Press on Saturday that a U.S. air base supporting operations in Afghanistan is "not justified," the first sign of significant divisions over the facility.
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (R) talks with Iraq's President Jalal Talabani (L) at Royal Palace in Riyadh April 11, 2010. REUTERS
Iraq says Saudi backs unity government
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on a visit to Saudi Arabia on Sunday said King Abdullah expressed his wish for a government comprising all Iraq's politicians after an indecisive March 7 general election.
Allawi's secularism may not fly in today's Iraq
In a nation where religion and politics have become nearly inseparable, can a secular politician be prime minister of Iraq? The question has moved to the heart of Iraq's complex politics after a coalition led by secular Shiite Ayad Allawi emerged as the biggest vote winner in last month's elections, winning 91 of the legislature's 325 seats, edging out a bloc led by the incumbent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by only two seats.
Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, threatens to block Nato offensive
The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has cast doubt over Nato’s planned summer offensive against the Taliban in the southern province of Kandahar, as more than 10,000 American troops pour in for the fight.
Afghan Officials: NATO Troops Kill 4 on Bus
Afghan officials say NATO troops opened fire on a bus in southern Afghanistan Monday, killing at least four people and wounding 18 others.
Pakistan: 41 militants, 2 soldiers die in fighting
More than 100 militants armed with rockets and automatic weapons attacked two security checkpoints in northwestern Pakistan on Monday, sparking intense fighting that left at least 41 insurgents and two soldiers dead, officials said.
Karzai tours with McChrystal after U.S. feud
Afghan President Hamid Karzai called on Taliban "brothers" to lay down their arms, as he appeared with NATO's commander in a show of solidarity aimed at putting a quarrel with the West behind him.
Airstrikes kill 10 militants in NW Pakistan
Fighter jets pounded militant hide-outs in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday, killing 10 suspected insurgents as part of a military operation that has eliminated more than 300 fighters in the last three weeks, an official said.
Iraq PM's bloc says fraud may have cost it 750,000 votes
The coalition of Iraq's incumbent prime minister, which came second in inconclusive March elections, said Sunday up to 750,000 votes had been tainted by fraud and it was seeking a recount in five provinces.
Yemen not going after radical US-born cleric
Yemeni forces are not going after a radical U.S.-born cleric who has reportedly been added to the CIA's list of targets to be killed or captured, the foreign minister said Saturday. The United States has not handed over evidence to support allegations that Anwar al-Awlaki is recruiting for al-Qaida's offshoot in the impoverished country on the southern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, the minister said.
Iyad Allawi: If Maliki tries to form a government in Iraq, chaos will ensue
In an interview this week with Ned Parker of the Los Angeles Times, former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqiya alliance edged out Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s party in national elections last month, warned of potential chaos if he is denied the right to form the country’s next government.
Abu Ghraib MP unit to return to Iraq
The Army Reserve unit tarnished by the Abu Ghraib detainee-abuse scandal has been mobilized to return to Iraq in its first deployment since photographs of naked, humiliated prisoners surfaced more than six years ago, the Army said Friday.
U.S. halts troop flights from Kyrgyz base
The fate of the Manas base, a central cog in the U.S.-led war effort in Afghanistan, has been thrown into question since the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's government.
Afghan officials say Pakistan's arrest of Taliban leader threatens peace talks
Senior Afghan officials are now criticizing as counterproductive the arrest in Pakistan this year of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the No. 2 Taliban official. Its main effect, the Afghan officials say, has been to derail Afghan-led efforts to secure peace talks with the Taliban, making that peace ever more remote.
Pakistan jet fighters kill 42 Islamist militants
Pakistani jet fighters bombed a meeting of an Islamist group blamed for attacking NATO supply convoys in a northern tribal area bordering Afghanistan, killing at least 42 militants.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq group claims embassy bombings
A militant group linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq has said it was behind Sunday's triple bombings in Baghdad which killed 40 people near foreign embassies.
Troops kill 15 militants in NW Pakistan: officials
Pakistani troops killed at least 15 militants in a gunfight after an attack on a checkpoint in a restive tribal area bordering Afghanistan, officials said Friday. The clash took place in Bezot Khel village in Orakzai tribal district overnight, where troops are hunting Taliban insurgents.
Iran minister: US hikers 'had intelligence links'
Iran's intelligence minister has said there is evidence that three US hikers it is holding had links to intelligence agencies, according to Iran's Press TV.
For whatever reason there is a debate over whether or not the Surge succeeded. Zen Pundit has probably the best coverage while Abu Muqawama is the one that picked the fight with the blogosphere. I will let Tom Ricks start this one off.
Now let expand on one of the very important points he brings up in the beginning. The new strategy for Iraq was announce by then-President Bush. Before the US press started calling it "the surge" it was known as "The New Way Forward in Iraq."
The President's New Iraq Strategy Is Rooted In Six Fundamental Elements:
1. Let the Iraqis lead; 2. Help Iraqis protect the population; 3. Isolate extremists; 4. Create space for political progress; 5. Diversify political and economic efforts; and 6. Situate the strategy in a regional approach.
Number 4 is the specific one mentioned by Ricks. But the "New Way Forward" is not the only officially stated means to measure success.
1. Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review.
2. Enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification.
3. Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources of the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner.
4. Enacting and implementing legislation on procedures to form semi-autonomous regions.
5. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing an Independent High Electoral Commission, provincial elections law, provincial council authorities, and a date for provincial elections.
6. Enacting and implementing legislation addressing amnesty.
7. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing a strong militia disarmament program to ensure that such security forces are accountable only to the central government and loyal to the Constitution of Iraq.
8. Establishing supporting political, media, economic, and services committees in support of the Baghdad security plan.
9. Providing three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations.
10. Providing Iraqi commanders with all authorities to execute this plan and to make tactical and operational decisions, in consultation with U.S. commanders, without political intervention, to include the authority to pursue all extremists, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias.
11. Ensuring that the Iraqi security forces are providing even-handed enforcement of the law.
12. Ensuring that, according to President Bush, Prime Minister Maliki said “the Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation.”
13. Reducing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq and eliminating militia control of local security.
14. Establishing all of the planned joint security stations in neighborhoods across Baghdad.
15. Increasing the number of Iraqi security forces’ units capable of operating independently.
16. Ensuring that the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature are protected.
17. Allocating and spending $10 billion in Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects, including delivery of essential services, on an equitable basis.
18. Ensuring that Iraq’s political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi security forces.
Now that we have the official "metrics" from the then-President and the official means of measuring success that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, the debate can continue.
My personal assessment is that the war is still going on. We simply cannot say whether it was a success yet. If there is any question to answer it would be this one.
Have any troops been authorized weekend leave in Baghdad? Saigon was safe enough for R&R.
Rescuers search for survivors at the scene of a bomb attack in central Baghdad, Iraq, Tuesday, April 6, 2010. Massive explosions hit apartment buildings across Baghdad killing at least 34 and wounding more than 100 in the latest sign that Iraq's fragile security could dissolve in the chaos of the country's unresolved election. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)
Baghdad Explosions Kill 28
Iraqi officials say several explosions have rocked central Baghdad, killing at least 28 people and wounding more than 75 others. The multiple bombings destroyed several apartment buildings and a restaurant in the Allawi district Tuesday. Media reports say people are trapped under the rubble.
Explosions hit Baghdad apartments, 34 dead
Massive bombs hit apartment buildings across Baghdad on Tuesday, killing at least 34 people and wounding more than 100 in the latest sign that Iraq's fragile security could dissolve in the chaos of the country's unresolved election.
6 explosions in Baghdad kill at least 28, wound 98
"The latest reports said that a total of 28 people were killed and 98 others injured by the massive blasts in Baghdad this morning," the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity. He said six explosions hit the Iraqi capital in the morning. The first blast started at about 8:45 a.m.(0545 GMT) in the Chikok area in Baghdad northern neighborhood of Kadhmiya, causing the collapse of two residential buildings, the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
About 10 minutes later, another massive blast destroyed a third building in the Shula neighborhood in northwestern Baghdad, the source said, adding that another powerful explosion occurred in a fourth building in the southwestern Shurta al-Rabia neighborhood. A fifth explosion rocked the Hifa street in central Baghdad, the source said without giving further details about the incident, but said the bast was apparently carried out by a suicide bomber. The sixth explosion took place in the al-Amil neighborhood in southern Baghdad, the source said without giving further details.
It was a tragic weekend for Iraq. From the COIN/CT perspective, I thought it would be interesting to study the strategic impact of the two most recent events. Most important to notice will be the Baath connection. Explanation at the bottom.
Sunni Arabs who worked with the Americans as Sons of Iraq say they feel particularly vulnerable. "The Awakening people now are the easy targets for everyone," said Qais al-Jubouri, a tribal leader who worked with the U.S. military and the Iraqi military and government to forge reconciliation in his area of southern Baghdad. Jubouri, who won a seat in the next parliament, has been on the run since the issuance of an arrest warrant against him that he deemed politically motivated.
"The government targets us, and al-Qaeda targets us," he said. "The Americans are done with us, and they threw us under the bus. They lured us as friends, one by one."
Most of the 19 male victims were members of Iraqi security forces or of Awakening Councils, groups that now partner with American forces and are employed by the Iraqi government to protect Sunni neighborhoods, but whose members had once been allied with Sunni extremist groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia during fighting against American troops.
Five women were among the 25 killed, all linked to the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, known as the "Sons of Iraq" by the US army, which joined American and Iraqi forces in 2006 and 2007 to fight against Al-Qaeda and its supporters, leading to a dramatic fall in violence across the country.
The victims were all tied up and shot either in the head or in the chest. Seven other civilians discovered handcuffed in the village were freed.
The elections last month polarized the country, with Shiite Prime Minister Nouri Maliki refusing to accept that an alliance led by rival Iyad Allawi, favored by Sunnis, had won more parliamentary seats than his bloc had. Some Iraqi security officers, U.S. military personnel and Western officials are expressing concern that Al Qaeda in Iraq could reestablish itself on Baghdad's rural perimeter and cause havoc before the next government is formed.
The attack Friday appeared to be aimed at intimidating the Sunni population. Residents of Hawr Rajab said the attackers, wearing American-style military uniforms, arrived in the afternoon. They seized an abandoned home, and one of the men, pretending to be an interpreter, told villagers in a mix of English and Arabic that the "American soldiers" were on a mission.
At least 58 people were killed in a three-day period, according to security sources and Iraqi media, including at least 30 people Sunday morning when three car bombs detonated in the capital near Iranian, Egyptian and German embassy buildings; three people in a separate car bombing in the restive northern city of Mosul; and 25 villagers who had been tied up and executed in a shadowy, early morning attack Saturday on a Sunni village on the southern outskirts of Baghdad.
Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, told the AFP news agency that the incident resembled previous attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq, but it was too soon to be certain as investigations were ongoing.
"They bear the same marks of previous attacks, in the timing, the targeting, the simultaneous attacks on different targets in different places to have maximum impact," he said.
Baghdad hit by triple blasts
The Baath Connection
Any potential gains from the recent election are slowly slipping away. One of the Sons of Iraq leaders who entered politics and won a seat in the new Iraqi government is now a fugitive running from the government he fought for against al Qaeda in Iraq. The Iraqi government also accused al Qaeda in Iraq and the Baath as being responsible for the embassy bombings. Currently Ali Faisal al Lami is attempting to disqualify members of Ayad Allawi's coalition through de-baathification. The shadow of Saddam's political apparatus casts a dark shadow on Iraq today. It is still too early to definitively state that a civil war will break out. I fear that a few more instances of political exclusion of the Sunnis, terrorist attacks against the government, and indiscriminate government security operations will bring Iraq to the brink yet again.
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