Explaining the Pessimism on Iraq

The pessimistic outlook for Iraq is founded in several fact-based observations. This outlook can easily change as events unfold. As of today, here is where we stand:


1. Al Qaeda in Iraq - They were not "strategically defeated" as previously claimed. The phrase has little to no meaning. Today, they are a failed revolutionary insurgent movement, but the most lethal terrorist force in Iraq.

2. Saddam Trauma - Iraqi government leaders consistently mention al Qaeda in Iraq and Baath in the wake of major attacks. These former exiles, now senior government officials, were telling us a similar story in 2002. As demonstrated by the anti-Baath rhetoric dominating the current election cycle, they truly believe this.


Formula for Violence

We have previously described violence as an indication that control over territory is disputed. We have also stated that the belief in an existential threat is required to incite violence.

Therefore we would have the following formula:

TC + ET = V

or

Territorial control plus existential threat equals violence


Current Momentum

1. Al Qaeda in Iraq will continue to attack the Iraqi government

2. The Iraqi government does not distinguish between a former Baath party member and a current member of al Qaeda in Iraq

Therefore -

The Iraqi government will eventually be forced to conduct a unilateral security operation against al Qaeda in Iraq completely independent from U.S. influence or support.


Projected Outcome

1. Due to the Iraqi government's consistent mixing of the Baath and al Qaeda in Iraq, this pending operation will likely target Sunni Arabs at large.

2. Such an operation will complete the TC + ET = V formula for Sunni Arab civilians under siege.

3. If the Iraqi government does not succeed immediately in crushing the will to fight, a new insurgency is inevitable.