Basics of COIN Part 8: Modus Ponens

Modus ponens is deductive logic. In formula format this would translate to If p, then q. p; therefore q. An example would be:

-If he was late to class, then he must be enrolled in school.
-He was late to class.
-Therefore, he is enrolled in school.

Modern COIN doctrine, also called population-centric COIN, would be the following:

- If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security for popular support.
- The public perceives a threat.
- Therefore providing security will gain you popular support.


Population-Centric Counterinsurgency Primer




There are two logical fallacies in modern COIN doctrine that I will illustrate below.


In order to apply this logic to a COIN environment, we must first establish a premise then fact. The basic COIN premise would be as follows:

Premise -

If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security to achieve popular support.

Determining the facts on the ground is the most difficult part and the current logical fallacy within modern COIN doctrine. The premise does not answer a simple yet critical question; "threat from whom?"

Facts - 

Does the public perceive a threat from...

the host nation government?
insurgents?
counterrevolutionaries?
terrorists?
foreign nation proxies?

This is the second logical fallacy in modern COIN doctrine; a foreign force temporarily protecting the population may make the situation worse in the long term.

The "provide security" solution can be counterproductive depending upon the perceptions of the locals. If the threat is perceived to be from the host nation government, you are intimidating a population into subjugation. The nature of the perceived threat must match the nature of the response. When the host nation government is the perceived threat, then the foreign COIN force must become the honest broker facilitating reconciliation between the people and the government.

Furthermore, the provision of security may only be welcome so long as locals perceive a threat remaining. A more pragmatic, logical premise for "clear, hold, build" would be as follows:

- If the public perceives a threat from a common enemy, then offer to provide security.
- The public perceives a threat from a common enemy.
- Therefore offer to provide security.