Nato forces move on to Kandahar
Afghanistan bomb 'kills 11 civilians'
A roadside bomb has killed 11 civilians in southern Afghanistan's Helmand province, officials say.
Marines, Afghan troops to stay months in Marjah
More than 2,000 U.S. Marines and about 1,000 Afghan troops who stormed the Taliban town of Marjah as part of a major NATO offensive against a resurgent Taliban will stay several months to ensure insurgents don't return, Marine commanders said Sunday.
Pakistan suicide attack kills 4, wounds dozens
A suicide car bomber attacked a police station Saturday in northwestern Pakistan, killing four people and wounding about two dozen, underscoring the continuing security threat as the country's army battles militants.
Iraqi PM defends ban of candidates before vote
Iraq's prime minister on Sunday defended a decision to ban hundreds of candidates from the upcoming election, saying the decision was not intended to target the country's minority Sunni population.
U.S. pullout top challenge for Iraq security: minister
Iraq's armed forces will not finish a modernization program until 2020, several years after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country is completed, the defense minister said.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Basics of COIN Part 8: Modus Ponens
Modus ponens is deductive logic. In formula format this would translate to If p, then q. p; therefore q. An example would be:
-If he was late to class, then he must be enrolled in school.
-He was late to class.
-Therefore, he is enrolled in school.
Modern COIN doctrine, also called population-centric COIN, would be the following:
- If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security for popular support.
- The public perceives a threat.
- Therefore providing security will gain you popular support.
Population-Centric Counterinsurgency Primer
There are two logical fallacies in modern COIN doctrine that I will illustrate below.
In order to apply this logic to a COIN environment, we must first establish a premise then fact. The basic COIN premise would be as follows:
Premise -
If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security to achieve popular support.
Determining the facts on the ground is the most difficult part and the current logical fallacy within modern COIN doctrine. The premise does not answer a simple yet critical question; "threat from whom?"
Facts -
Does the public perceive a threat from...
the host nation government?
insurgents?
counterrevolutionaries?
terrorists?
foreign nation proxies?
This is the second logical fallacy in modern COIN doctrine; a foreign force temporarily protecting the population may make the situation worse in the long term.
The "provide security" solution can be counterproductive depending upon the perceptions of the locals. If the threat is perceived to be from the host nation government, you are intimidating a population into subjugation. The nature of the perceived threat must match the nature of the response. When the host nation government is the perceived threat, then the foreign COIN force must become the honest broker facilitating reconciliation between the people and the government.
Furthermore, the provision of security may only be welcome so long as locals perceive a threat remaining. A more pragmatic, logical premise for "clear, hold, build" would be as follows:
- If the public perceives a threat from a common enemy, then offer to provide security.
- The public perceives a threat from a common enemy.
- Therefore offer to provide security.
-If he was late to class, then he must be enrolled in school.
-He was late to class.
-Therefore, he is enrolled in school.
Modern COIN doctrine, also called population-centric COIN, would be the following:
- If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security for popular support.
- The public perceives a threat.
- Therefore providing security will gain you popular support.
Population-Centric Counterinsurgency Primer
There are two logical fallacies in modern COIN doctrine that I will illustrate below.
In order to apply this logic to a COIN environment, we must first establish a premise then fact. The basic COIN premise would be as follows:
Premise -
If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security to achieve popular support.
Determining the facts on the ground is the most difficult part and the current logical fallacy within modern COIN doctrine. The premise does not answer a simple yet critical question; "threat from whom?"
Facts -
Does the public perceive a threat from...
the host nation government?
insurgents?
counterrevolutionaries?
terrorists?
foreign nation proxies?
This is the second logical fallacy in modern COIN doctrine; a foreign force temporarily protecting the population may make the situation worse in the long term.
The "provide security" solution can be counterproductive depending upon the perceptions of the locals. If the threat is perceived to be from the host nation government, you are intimidating a population into subjugation. The nature of the perceived threat must match the nature of the response. When the host nation government is the perceived threat, then the foreign COIN force must become the honest broker facilitating reconciliation between the people and the government.
Furthermore, the provision of security may only be welcome so long as locals perceive a threat remaining. A more pragmatic, logical premise for "clear, hold, build" would be as follows:
- If the public perceives a threat from a common enemy, then offer to provide security.
- The public perceives a threat from a common enemy.
- Therefore offer to provide security.
Friday, February 26, 2010
February 26th Morning Readbook
Deadly blasts rock central Kabul
Taliban defectors accept U.S. approach but wait for promises to be kept
As the Taliban commander in the Pusht-e-Zargon district of western Afghanistan, Abdul Wahab considered himself the law. A stolen sheep? He would choose the thief's punishment: often a gunshot to the forearm or calf muscle. He was careful to avoid the bone.
Indian media downbeat over Pakistan talks
Indian newspapers have extensively covered the first formal official talks between India and Pakistan since the Mumbai (Bombay) attacks of 2008.
Iran, Syria mock U.S. policy; Ahmadinejad speaks of Israel's 'annihilation'
The presidents of Iran and Syria on Thursday ridiculed U.S. policy in the region and pledged to create a Middle East "without Zionists," combining a slap at recent U.S. overtures and a threat to Israel with an endorsement of one of the region's defining alliances.
Dubai hit squad underestimated police: expert
A former top level US intelligence official says the assassination in Dubai of a Hamas operative has all the hallmarks of the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad.
Iraq anti-Baath panel moves to purge security forces
The panel names 580 security officers alleged to have ties to the former ruling party. The move, after hundreds of election candidates were barred on similar charges, is likely to raise tensions.
Iraq to Rehire 20,000 Hussein-Era Army Officers
The Iraqi government said Thursday that it would reinstate 20,000 army officers who served under Saddam Hussein, a surprising move given that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has focused his campaign in the coming parliamentary elections around denouncing the former Baath government.
Sectarian tensions rise before Iraq elections
A popular Sunni political party backtracked on Thursday from plans to boycott Iraq's parliamentary elections even as rivals threatened to have the party's leader charged with terrorism.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Taliban defectors accept U.S. approach but wait for promises to be kept
As the Taliban commander in the Pusht-e-Zargon district of western Afghanistan, Abdul Wahab considered himself the law. A stolen sheep? He would choose the thief's punishment: often a gunshot to the forearm or calf muscle. He was careful to avoid the bone.
Indian media downbeat over Pakistan talks
Indian newspapers have extensively covered the first formal official talks between India and Pakistan since the Mumbai (Bombay) attacks of 2008.
Iran, Syria mock U.S. policy; Ahmadinejad speaks of Israel's 'annihilation'
The presidents of Iran and Syria on Thursday ridiculed U.S. policy in the region and pledged to create a Middle East "without Zionists," combining a slap at recent U.S. overtures and a threat to Israel with an endorsement of one of the region's defining alliances.
Dubai hit squad underestimated police: expert
A former top level US intelligence official says the assassination in Dubai of a Hamas operative has all the hallmarks of the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad.
Iraq anti-Baath panel moves to purge security forces
The panel names 580 security officers alleged to have ties to the former ruling party. The move, after hundreds of election candidates were barred on similar charges, is likely to raise tensions.
Iraq to Rehire 20,000 Hussein-Era Army Officers
The Iraqi government said Thursday that it would reinstate 20,000 army officers who served under Saddam Hussein, a surprising move given that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has focused his campaign in the coming parliamentary elections around denouncing the former Baath government.
Sectarian tensions rise before Iraq elections
A popular Sunni political party backtracked on Thursday from plans to boycott Iraq's parliamentary elections even as rivals threatened to have the party's leader charged with terrorism.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Thursday, February 25, 2010
February 25th Morning Readbook
Kirkuk tensions threaten Iraq
Sunni leader decides to take part in Iraq election
Saleh al-Mutlaq during a news conference on Thursday reversed his earlier position and said he would now allow his party to take part in the vote. He called on all Iraqis to go to participate in elections.
Can Iraq protect its election from violence?
The Iraqi affiliate of al Qaeda threatened this month to prevent Iraq's March 7 election at any cost, using primarily "military" means to stop what it called a farce aimed at cementing Shi'ite Muslim domination over Sunnis.
International pressure urged over Afghan power grab
The former Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has said the West should threaten not to pay for his country's future elections.
India and Pakistan Resume Talks
At a critical moment across the region, senior officials from India and Pakistan held their first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks on Thursday, with the United States hoping that even a modest improvement in relations could help the broader American military effort in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda’s troubling new focus
THERE WAS much to celebrate when would-be subway bomber Najibullah Zazi entered a guilty plea this week in a Brooklyn court. But not all is well. The case is a forewarning about the evolving nature of threats from Al Qaeda.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Sunni leader decides to take part in Iraq election
Saleh al-Mutlaq during a news conference on Thursday reversed his earlier position and said he would now allow his party to take part in the vote. He called on all Iraqis to go to participate in elections.
Can Iraq protect its election from violence?
The Iraqi affiliate of al Qaeda threatened this month to prevent Iraq's March 7 election at any cost, using primarily "military" means to stop what it called a farce aimed at cementing Shi'ite Muslim domination over Sunnis.
International pressure urged over Afghan power grab
The former Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has said the West should threaten not to pay for his country's future elections.
India and Pakistan Resume Talks
At a critical moment across the region, senior officials from India and Pakistan held their first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks on Thursday, with the United States hoping that even a modest improvement in relations could help the broader American military effort in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda’s troubling new focus
THERE WAS much to celebrate when would-be subway bomber Najibullah Zazi entered a guilty plea this week in a Brooklyn court. But not all is well. The case is a forewarning about the evolving nature of threats from Al Qaeda.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
"To Fight With the Taliban"
Cornell/Getty
Aspiring al Qaeda suicide bomber Najibullah Zazi in his own words.
THE DEFENDANT: Your Honor, during the spring and summer of 2008, I conspired with others to travel to Afghanistan to join the Taliban and fight against the U.S. military and its allies. We made this agreement in Queens, New York, to carry out this agreement. At the end of August 2008, we flew from New York airport to Peshawar, Pakistan.
THE COURT: Your purpose in going to Pakistan?
THE DEFENDANT: Was to join Taliban.
THE COURT: For the purpose of?
THE DEFENDANT: To fight alongside with the Taliban against the U.S. ... Also, our plan was to go to Afghanistan and fight with the Taliban. While we were in Peshawar, we were recruited by Al Qaeda, instead. We were taken by Al Qaeda to training camp in Waziristan, where we received weapons training.
During the training, Al Qaeda leaders asked us to return to the United States and conduct martyrdom operation. We agreed to this plan. I did so because of my feelings about what the United States was doing in Afghanistan.
Later, I received more training from Al Qaeda about how to construct the explosives for attack in the United States or to carry martyrdom operation. During my training, I had discussion with Al Qaeda ... leaders, including target locations, such as New York City subways.
In January 2009, I come back to United States. Beginning around June 2009, I accessed my bomb-making notes and began researching where to find the ingredients for the explosives.
I also took trips to New York, and meet with others to discuss the plan, including the timing of the attack, and where to make the explosives. I then used the bomb-making notes to construct explosive for the detonators in Denver. The explosive was hydrogen peroxide.
In early September 2009, I drove to New York with the detonator explosive and other materials ... necessary to build bombs.
I arrived in New York City on Thursday, Sept. 10. And we intend to obtain and assemble the remaining components to build a bomb over the weekend. The plan was to conduct martyrdom operation on subway lines in Manhattan as soon as the material were ready, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.
When I arrived in New York City, I realized that law enforcement was investigating me. At that point, we threw away the detonator explosives and other materials, and I flew back to Denver, and I was arrested just a few days after.
You can find the full article here.
February 24th Morning Readbook
Interview: US Commander in Helmand
Battle starts to win over Helmand locals and wean them off poppy growing
Afghan civilians will today begin to pour into the district cleared by British troops in a pivotal phase of the operation to banish the Taleban.
Taliban Capture Raises Hopes of Pakistan Shift
The capture of a second high-level leader of the Afghan Taliban by Pakistani authorities has raised the prospect that Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, long accused by the U.S. of ties with Islamist extremists, has begun to turn on an organization it once cultivated.
India Says Fired At By Pakistan Guards Ahead Of Talks
Indian border guards said their troops came under fire from Pakistan on Wednesday, a day before the two nuclear-armed neighbours are set for the first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
Insurgency Rises in Northern Ireland
The car bomb that exploded in the Northern Ireland city of Newry Monday night highlights the resurgence in activity of Irish Republican splinter groups determined to wreck the province's fragile peace process with an increasingly sophisticated use of explosives.
Top Yemen al Qaeda leader threatens U.S. attacks
An article under the name of a senior member of al Qaeda's Yemen wing that the Yemeni government said it had killed has appeared on an Internet forum, threatening to carry out attacks in the United States.
Iraq Election Preview
Iraq will soon hold national elections -– a step critical to strengthening its democracy. These elections said, Commander of U.S. Forces in Iraq General Ray Odierno, "are important to everyone in the region, they are important to the people of Iraq, and they're important to people outside the region because of the impact it could have on stability not only in Iraq but in the Middle East as a whole."
Extending Our Stay in Iraq
IRAQ’S March 7 national election, and the formation of a new government that will follow, carry huge implications for both Iraqis and American policy. It appears now that the results are unlikely to resolve key political struggles that could return the country to sectarianism and violence.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Battle starts to win over Helmand locals and wean them off poppy growing
Afghan civilians will today begin to pour into the district cleared by British troops in a pivotal phase of the operation to banish the Taleban.
Taliban Capture Raises Hopes of Pakistan Shift
The capture of a second high-level leader of the Afghan Taliban by Pakistani authorities has raised the prospect that Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, long accused by the U.S. of ties with Islamist extremists, has begun to turn on an organization it once cultivated.
India Says Fired At By Pakistan Guards Ahead Of Talks
Indian border guards said their troops came under fire from Pakistan on Wednesday, a day before the two nuclear-armed neighbours are set for the first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
Insurgency Rises in Northern Ireland
The car bomb that exploded in the Northern Ireland city of Newry Monday night highlights the resurgence in activity of Irish Republican splinter groups determined to wreck the province's fragile peace process with an increasingly sophisticated use of explosives.
Top Yemen al Qaeda leader threatens U.S. attacks
An article under the name of a senior member of al Qaeda's Yemen wing that the Yemeni government said it had killed has appeared on an Internet forum, threatening to carry out attacks in the United States.
Iraq Election Preview
Iraq will soon hold national elections -– a step critical to strengthening its democracy. These elections said, Commander of U.S. Forces in Iraq General Ray Odierno, "are important to everyone in the region, they are important to the people of Iraq, and they're important to people outside the region because of the impact it could have on stability not only in Iraq but in the Middle East as a whole."
Extending Our Stay in Iraq
IRAQ’S March 7 national election, and the formation of a new government that will follow, carry huge implications for both Iraqis and American policy. It appears now that the results are unlikely to resolve key political struggles that could return the country to sectarianism and violence.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Four Days to Turn Fundamentalists
It is not that our enemies are so good, it is that we tie our own hands. Timelines are one thing, but giving our people four days to crack a killer with kindness is simply ridiculous and dangerous. Were this story not in the press, this revolving door policy would continue until U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
February 23rd Morning Readbook
Afghani man pleads guilty to attempted terror bombings
Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Kabir 'seized in Pakistan'
A senior leader of the Afghan Taliban has been detained in Pakistan, US media reports say.
'Pakistan serious on improving India ties'
Pakistan's foreign minister said Tuesday that his country was serious about improving relations with India, ahead of the first official talks between the South Asian rivals in more than a year.
Iran: Arrested Sunni Militant Leader Had Help From US
Iranian officials say the head of a Sunni militant group was arrested outside the country, and that he had links to the United States.
Spike in Iraq Violence as Vote Nears
A series of bombings, beheadings and shootings rippled through Iraq on Monday, leaving at least 23 people dead, including 9 children, and intensifying concern about a spike in violence with less than two weeks until national elections.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Kabir 'seized in Pakistan'
A senior leader of the Afghan Taliban has been detained in Pakistan, US media reports say.
'Pakistan serious on improving India ties'
Pakistan's foreign minister said Tuesday that his country was serious about improving relations with India, ahead of the first official talks between the South Asian rivals in more than a year.
Iran: Arrested Sunni Militant Leader Had Help From US
Iranian officials say the head of a Sunni militant group was arrested outside the country, and that he had links to the United States.
Spike in Iraq Violence as Vote Nears
A series of bombings, beheadings and shootings rippled through Iraq on Monday, leaving at least 23 people dead, including 9 children, and intensifying concern about a spike in violence with less than two weeks until national elections.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Sunday, February 21, 2010
February 21st Morning Readbook
Healing the wounded in Helmand
Marines, Afghan troops battle holdout insurgents in Marja
NATO encounters "determined resistance" around the southern Afghanistan town as the offensive rages for a ninth day
Dutch troops 'to leave Afghanistan as planned' - PM
A day after his cabinet collapsed, the Dutch prime minister says he expects Dutch troops to end their mission in Afghanistan in August as expected.
Iran calls on IAEA not to surrender to will of certain states
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Sunday that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should not surrender to the will of certain states over Iran's nuclear program, the official IRNA news agency reported.
Sunni party vows to boycott Iraqi elections
The Iraqi National Dialogue Front, whose leader was barred from running for parliament, cites 'Iranian interference' for its decision.
Abu Sayyaf commander killed in raid
Albader Parad, one of the Philippines's most wanted Abu Sayyaf leaders, has been confirmed killed in fighting with the military in the country's south, sources told Al Jazeera.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Marines, Afghan troops battle holdout insurgents in Marja
NATO encounters "determined resistance" around the southern Afghanistan town as the offensive rages for a ninth day
Dutch troops 'to leave Afghanistan as planned' - PM
A day after his cabinet collapsed, the Dutch prime minister says he expects Dutch troops to end their mission in Afghanistan in August as expected.
Iran calls on IAEA not to surrender to will of certain states
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Sunday that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should not surrender to the will of certain states over Iran's nuclear program, the official IRNA news agency reported.
Sunni party vows to boycott Iraqi elections
The Iraqi National Dialogue Front, whose leader was barred from running for parliament, cites 'Iranian interference' for its decision.
Abu Sayyaf commander killed in raid
Albader Parad, one of the Philippines's most wanted Abu Sayyaf leaders, has been confirmed killed in fighting with the military in the country's south, sources told Al Jazeera.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Saturday, February 20, 2010
February 20th Morning Readbook
Human rights concerns in Iraq
Sunni party drops out of Iraq's national elections
Iraq's main Sunni party said Saturday it is dropping out of next month's national elections, seizing on U.S. concerns about Iran's influence in the political process as proof that the vote will not be legitimate.
Pakistan air strike 'kills 30 militants'
At least 30 militants were killed in an air strike by the Pakistani military as two suicide bombers attacked police stations in northwest Pakistan Saturday, officials said. The air strike took place in South Waziristan district where the military in October launched an air and ground offensive to flush out Taliban militants.
Taliban put up stiff resistance to U.S.-led offensive in Afghanistan
Foreign and Afghan forces encountered stiff resistance Saturday as their offensive in southern Afghanistan entered its second week, and a civilian was mistakenly shot dead.
Afghan president renews peace calls to Taliban
Afghan President Hamid Karzai renewed his call on Saturday for the Taliban to accept his peace proposal, after a NATO offensive and the capture of a top Taliban leader raised hopes the group could be more flexible.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Sunni party drops out of Iraq's national elections
Iraq's main Sunni party said Saturday it is dropping out of next month's national elections, seizing on U.S. concerns about Iran's influence in the political process as proof that the vote will not be legitimate.
Pakistan air strike 'kills 30 militants'
At least 30 militants were killed in an air strike by the Pakistani military as two suicide bombers attacked police stations in northwest Pakistan Saturday, officials said. The air strike took place in South Waziristan district where the military in October launched an air and ground offensive to flush out Taliban militants.
Taliban put up stiff resistance to U.S.-led offensive in Afghanistan
Foreign and Afghan forces encountered stiff resistance Saturday as their offensive in southern Afghanistan entered its second week, and a civilian was mistakenly shot dead.
Afghan president renews peace calls to Taliban
Afghan President Hamid Karzai renewed his call on Saturday for the Taliban to accept his peace proposal, after a NATO offensive and the capture of a top Taliban leader raised hopes the group could be more flexible.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Friday, February 19, 2010
February 19th Morning Readbook
Nato-Afghan offensive in Helmand 'a success', governor says
Concern over Afghan civilians slows NATO advance
Whenever Afghanistan's Taliban turn up the heat in the battle with U.S. Marines, the troops have to think twice before retaliating or calling in air strikes in order to avoid civilian casualties.
US compensates Afghans for death, damage from war
The fallout of war has a price in southern Afghanistan. U.S. Army units fighting the Taliban in Helmand province have a compensation system for any death, injury or damage to crops and buildings caused by American forces to Afghan civilians and their property.
In Afghanistan, Marines handling detainees by the book
The Marines have been ordered not to treat Afghans roughly. When making an arrest, they are instructed to ask their suspect to voluntarily go with them. Most do.
U.S. strike in Pakistan kills Afghan militant's son
A son of the leader of a major Taliban faction attacking Western forces in Afghanistan was killed in a recent missile strike by a U.S. drone in Pakistan, security officials said on Friday.
Blast as Holbrooke visits Pakistan
An explosion at a mosque in northwestern Pakistan has killed at least 29 people and wounded dozens more.
Is the U.S. Hotter on Bin Laden's Trail?
Are the U.S. and Pakistan one step closer to hunting down Osama bin Laden? The recent capture of the Taliban's military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, as he was leaving a seminary in the Pakistani seaport of Karachi may have given investigators several leads in tracking down the the fugitive al-Qaeda chief.
War in Iraq will be called 'Operation New Dawn' to reflect reduced U.S. role
The Obama administration has decided to give the war in Iraq a new name -- "Operation New Dawn" -- to reflect the reduced role U.S. troops will play in securing the country this year as troop levels fall, according to a memo from Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Concern over Afghan civilians slows NATO advance
Whenever Afghanistan's Taliban turn up the heat in the battle with U.S. Marines, the troops have to think twice before retaliating or calling in air strikes in order to avoid civilian casualties.
US compensates Afghans for death, damage from war
The fallout of war has a price in southern Afghanistan. U.S. Army units fighting the Taliban in Helmand province have a compensation system for any death, injury or damage to crops and buildings caused by American forces to Afghan civilians and their property.
In Afghanistan, Marines handling detainees by the book
The Marines have been ordered not to treat Afghans roughly. When making an arrest, they are instructed to ask their suspect to voluntarily go with them. Most do.
U.S. strike in Pakistan kills Afghan militant's son
A son of the leader of a major Taliban faction attacking Western forces in Afghanistan was killed in a recent missile strike by a U.S. drone in Pakistan, security officials said on Friday.
Blast as Holbrooke visits Pakistan
An explosion at a mosque in northwestern Pakistan has killed at least 29 people and wounded dozens more.
Is the U.S. Hotter on Bin Laden's Trail?
Are the U.S. and Pakistan one step closer to hunting down Osama bin Laden? The recent capture of the Taliban's military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, as he was leaving a seminary in the Pakistani seaport of Karachi may have given investigators several leads in tracking down the the fugitive al-Qaeda chief.
War in Iraq will be called 'Operation New Dawn' to reflect reduced U.S. role
The Obama administration has decided to give the war in Iraq a new name -- "Operation New Dawn" -- to reflect the reduced role U.S. troops will play in securing the country this year as troop levels fall, according to a memo from Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Ending al Qaeda
Malcolm Nance is becoming my new favorite author. His assessment and strategy for defeating al Qaeda is brilliant. The commentary and overview provided in the Rachel Maddow interview compliment the counter narrative dialogue over at Al Sahwa I encourage everyone to read. The intro to the interview is cheesy and somewhat painful to watch but once you get past the goofy graphics it gets very interesting, very quick.
For those interesting in Nance's book, you can pick it up here.
"Iraq 2005" Comparisons Continue
Yesterday, Tom Ricks highlighted an article from the Washington Post in which a U.S. military official made the 2005 comparisons.
You can read the full article here. Individuals on their fourth or fifth tour are restricted to bases. The U.S. forces leadership is focused on Iraq's election day and U.S. troops leaving the country. It took General Odierno over a month to publicly acknowledge Iranian interference in the upcoming Iraqi elections, something General Petraeus noted to the press within weeks of the de-baathification bans by Ali Faisal al Lami and Ahmed Chalabi. This calls into question which general has the better grasp of conditions on the ground.
In January we made our own comparisons to 2005, but most recently detailed the reasons for our pessimistic outlook. You can read "Explaining the Pessimism on Iraq" here.
"All we're doing is setting the clock back to 2005," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer a stark assessment. "The militias are fully armed, and al-Qaeda in Iraq is trying to move back from the west. These are the conditions now, and we're sitting back looking at PowerPoint slides and whitewashing."
You can read the full article here. Individuals on their fourth or fifth tour are restricted to bases. The U.S. forces leadership is focused on Iraq's election day and U.S. troops leaving the country. It took General Odierno over a month to publicly acknowledge Iranian interference in the upcoming Iraqi elections, something General Petraeus noted to the press within weeks of the de-baathification bans by Ali Faisal al Lami and Ahmed Chalabi. This calls into question which general has the better grasp of conditions on the ground.
In January we made our own comparisons to 2005, but most recently detailed the reasons for our pessimistic outlook. You can read "Explaining the Pessimism on Iraq" here.
February 18th Morning Readbook
Obstacles in path to Afghan peace
Afghan and international forces are reported to be planning for a major military assault against the Taliban in Kunduz, a northern province, along the lines of Operation Moshtarak under way in Helmand.
Marines still looking over shoulder for Taliban
It's only been six days since NATO launched a major assault against the Taliban and some Afghans are already asking Marines when they can reopen their shops.
Taliban town residents skeptical of NATO promises
The Taliban's white flag no longer flies over villages across this militant stronghold. Afghan and NATO troops have replaced it with Afghanistan's official green-and-red banner, which they promise heralds new schools and clinics and good governance.
Insurgents put up resistance in Taliban town
U.S. Marines pummeled insurgents with mortars, sniper fire and missiles as fighting intensified Thursday in two areas of the Taliban southern stronghold of Marjah, where U.S. and Afghan forces are facing stubborn resistance in an operation now in its sixth day.
Pakistan arrests 2 senior Afghan Taliban: official
Pakistan has captured two "shadow governors" belonging to Afghanistan's Taliban movement, an Afghan official said on Thursday.
Suicide bomber kills 11 in Iraq's Anbar province
A suicide bomber killed at least 11 people and wounded 21 others on Thursday in Iraq's increasingly turbulent western Anbar province, a senior Iraqi army official and police said.
Iran Continues to Subvert Iraq, Officials Say
As national elections in Iraq loom on the horizon, Iran continues to subvert its western neighbor’s security and political infrastructure, top American military officials said. Army Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the top American commander in Iraq, said Iran aims to foment violence in Iraq and to play diplomatic and other nonmilitary roles that call into question Iran’s respect for Iraqi sovereignty.
U.N. officials criticize U.S. restrictions on aid to Somalia
U.N. officials on Wednesday ratcheted up their criticism of U.S. policy in Somalia, declaring that recent restrictions intended to prevent al-Qaeda-linked Somali Islamists from gaining strength are holding up humanitarian aid to some of the world's most desperate people.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Afghan and international forces are reported to be planning for a major military assault against the Taliban in Kunduz, a northern province, along the lines of Operation Moshtarak under way in Helmand.
Marines still looking over shoulder for Taliban
It's only been six days since NATO launched a major assault against the Taliban and some Afghans are already asking Marines when they can reopen their shops.
Taliban town residents skeptical of NATO promises
The Taliban's white flag no longer flies over villages across this militant stronghold. Afghan and NATO troops have replaced it with Afghanistan's official green-and-red banner, which they promise heralds new schools and clinics and good governance.
Insurgents put up resistance in Taliban town
U.S. Marines pummeled insurgents with mortars, sniper fire and missiles as fighting intensified Thursday in two areas of the Taliban southern stronghold of Marjah, where U.S. and Afghan forces are facing stubborn resistance in an operation now in its sixth day.
Pakistan arrests 2 senior Afghan Taliban: official
Pakistan has captured two "shadow governors" belonging to Afghanistan's Taliban movement, an Afghan official said on Thursday.
Suicide bomber kills 11 in Iraq's Anbar province
A suicide bomber killed at least 11 people and wounded 21 others on Thursday in Iraq's increasingly turbulent western Anbar province, a senior Iraqi army official and police said.
Iran Continues to Subvert Iraq, Officials Say
As national elections in Iraq loom on the horizon, Iran continues to subvert its western neighbor’s security and political infrastructure, top American military officials said. Army Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the top American commander in Iraq, said Iran aims to foment violence in Iraq and to play diplomatic and other nonmilitary roles that call into question Iran’s respect for Iraqi sovereignty.
U.N. officials criticize U.S. restrictions on aid to Somalia
U.N. officials on Wednesday ratcheted up their criticism of U.S. policy in Somalia, declaring that recent restrictions intended to prevent al-Qaeda-linked Somali Islamists from gaining strength are holding up humanitarian aid to some of the world's most desperate people.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
February 17th Morning Readbook
Taliban second in command captured
'Muted' Pakistan media response to Taliban arrest
The Pakistani media's response to the arrest of top Afghan Taliban military commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has been surprisingly muted.
Marines battling Afghanistan Taliban call in gunships
US Marines battling the Taliban in southern Afghanistan have had to call in helicopter gunships for support, as a major offensive enters its fifth day.
Iran leader accuses U.S. of "war-mongering"
Iran's supreme leader accused the United States on Wednesday of war-mongering and of turning the Gulf into an "arms depot", hitting back at U.S. accusations that the Islamic state was moving toward a military dictatorship.
Al Qaeda warns of attacks in India
Global terror network Al Qaeda’s Pakistan arm has warned of attacks in India, particularly targeting upcoming international sports events like the Commonwealth Games, the Hockey World Cup and the IPL cricket league.
US troops in Iraq below 100,000 for first time since 2003
The size of the US force in Iraq has dropped below 100,000 troops for the first time since the invasion of the country in 2003, a military spokesman said Wednesday.
General Says 2 Iraq Politicians Have Ties to Iran
General Odierno was unusually blunt in publicly expressing concerns about the actions of the two Iraqis: Ahmed Chalabi, who was a confidant of Bush administration officials in the prelude to the 2003 invasion but now is perceived as having supplied false intelligence to the United States; and Ali Faisal al-Lami, suspected of involvement in murderous activities of Shiite militants, including a bombing in Baghdad, accusations that he denies.
Iran Has Designs on Iraq
Vice President Joe Biden recently told Larry King that Iraq "could be one of the great achievements of this administration." Mr. Biden's transparent attempt to take credit for Bush administration policies aside, it's worth asking how exactly does the Obama administration define success in Iraq?
Just weeks before elections, specter of sectarian violence resurfaces in Iraq
It was only one killing, but it unleashed the demons of a bitter and perhaps unfinished past. The victim was a Sunni man in the mostly Shiite neighborhood of Hurriyah, in northwest Baghdad. The death and the aftermath were reminiscent of the prelude to the sectarian war, which began in late 2005 with a smattering of killings and threats and culminated with 100 bodies a day being dumped in the streets of the capital. With the imminent departure of American forces and fierce competition for power ahead of general elections on March 7, many here say sectarian strife is reigniting.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
'Muted' Pakistan media response to Taliban arrest
The Pakistani media's response to the arrest of top Afghan Taliban military commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has been surprisingly muted.
Marines battling Afghanistan Taliban call in gunships
US Marines battling the Taliban in southern Afghanistan have had to call in helicopter gunships for support, as a major offensive enters its fifth day.
Iran leader accuses U.S. of "war-mongering"
Iran's supreme leader accused the United States on Wednesday of war-mongering and of turning the Gulf into an "arms depot", hitting back at U.S. accusations that the Islamic state was moving toward a military dictatorship.
Al Qaeda warns of attacks in India
Global terror network Al Qaeda’s Pakistan arm has warned of attacks in India, particularly targeting upcoming international sports events like the Commonwealth Games, the Hockey World Cup and the IPL cricket league.
US troops in Iraq below 100,000 for first time since 2003
The size of the US force in Iraq has dropped below 100,000 troops for the first time since the invasion of the country in 2003, a military spokesman said Wednesday.
General Says 2 Iraq Politicians Have Ties to Iran
General Odierno was unusually blunt in publicly expressing concerns about the actions of the two Iraqis: Ahmed Chalabi, who was a confidant of Bush administration officials in the prelude to the 2003 invasion but now is perceived as having supplied false intelligence to the United States; and Ali Faisal al-Lami, suspected of involvement in murderous activities of Shiite militants, including a bombing in Baghdad, accusations that he denies.
Iran Has Designs on Iraq
Vice President Joe Biden recently told Larry King that Iraq "could be one of the great achievements of this administration." Mr. Biden's transparent attempt to take credit for Bush administration policies aside, it's worth asking how exactly does the Obama administration define success in Iraq?
Just weeks before elections, specter of sectarian violence resurfaces in Iraq
It was only one killing, but it unleashed the demons of a bitter and perhaps unfinished past. The victim was a Sunni man in the mostly Shiite neighborhood of Hurriyah, in northwest Baghdad. The death and the aftermath were reminiscent of the prelude to the sectarian war, which began in late 2005 with a smattering of killings and threats and culminated with 100 bodies a day being dumped in the streets of the capital. With the imminent departure of American forces and fierce competition for power ahead of general elections on March 7, many here say sectarian strife is reigniting.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
February 16th Morning Readbook
Who is Mullah Brader?
Mullah Abdul Ghani Brader, described as the senior Taliban military commander who managed the day-to-day operations of the group's leadership council, the Quetta Shura, has reportedly been captured in Pakistan.
Taliban’s 2nd-in-command nabbed in Pakistan
The Taliban's top military commander has been arrested in a joint CIA-Pakistani operation in Pakistan, officials said Tuesday.
Marines: Taliban resistance more disorganized
U.S. and Afghan forces traded gunfire with insurgents shooting from haystacks in poppy fields in the Taliban stronghold of Marjah as they pressed ahead in NATO's assault on the militants' heartland in southern Afghanistan.
Pakistan's lawyers strike over judicial appointments made by President Zardari
A fresh standoff between Pakistan's judiciary and its weak government simmered Monday, as lawyers staged a nationwide strike and political prognosticators warned of instability in the wobbly democracy.
Unknown Pakistani group claims responsibility for Pune blast
An unknown group calling itself the Laskhar-e-Taiba Al Alami claimed on Tuesday it was behind Saturday’s bomb attack in Pune that killed nine people.
Iran official says backs visits to U.S. detainees
A senior Iranian human rights official said on Tuesday he had recommended that three Americans detained in his country be allowed to receive family visits.
Facing death, freed Iraq detainees may fight again
Many Iraqis released by U.S. forces after being detained for suspected links to Sunni insurgents have been killed by tribes seeking revenge or are being driven back into the arms of al Qaeda.
Bombing at Iraq Crime Lab Kills 2 Policemen
Iraqi officials say a car bomb exploded outside a police crime lab in the northern city of Mosul Tuesday, killing two officers.
US tells Iraq to improve prisons, stamp out abuse
In a U.N. debate, the United States has urged the Iraqi government to improve its poor prison conditions and to investigate allegations of detainee abuse.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Mullah Abdul Ghani Brader, described as the senior Taliban military commander who managed the day-to-day operations of the group's leadership council, the Quetta Shura, has reportedly been captured in Pakistan.
Taliban’s 2nd-in-command nabbed in Pakistan
The Taliban's top military commander has been arrested in a joint CIA-Pakistani operation in Pakistan, officials said Tuesday.
Marines: Taliban resistance more disorganized
U.S. and Afghan forces traded gunfire with insurgents shooting from haystacks in poppy fields in the Taliban stronghold of Marjah as they pressed ahead in NATO's assault on the militants' heartland in southern Afghanistan.
Pakistan's lawyers strike over judicial appointments made by President Zardari
A fresh standoff between Pakistan's judiciary and its weak government simmered Monday, as lawyers staged a nationwide strike and political prognosticators warned of instability in the wobbly democracy.
Unknown Pakistani group claims responsibility for Pune blast
An unknown group calling itself the Laskhar-e-Taiba Al Alami claimed on Tuesday it was behind Saturday’s bomb attack in Pune that killed nine people.
Iran official says backs visits to U.S. detainees
A senior Iranian human rights official said on Tuesday he had recommended that three Americans detained in his country be allowed to receive family visits.
Facing death, freed Iraq detainees may fight again
Many Iraqis released by U.S. forces after being detained for suspected links to Sunni insurgents have been killed by tribes seeking revenge or are being driven back into the arms of al Qaeda.
Bombing at Iraq Crime Lab Kills 2 Policemen
Iraqi officials say a car bomb exploded outside a police crime lab in the northern city of Mosul Tuesday, killing two officers.
US tells Iraq to improve prisons, stamp out abuse
In a U.N. debate, the United States has urged the Iraqi government to improve its poor prison conditions and to investigate allegations of detainee abuse.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Monday, February 15, 2010
February 15th Morning Readbook
The Marines move on Marja: A perilous slog against Afghanistan's Taliban
For the Marines of Charlie Company's 3rd Platoon, Sunday's mission was simple enough: Head west for a little more than a mile to link up with Alpha Company in preparation for a mission to secure the few ramshackle government buildings in this farming community.
Afghanistan offensive is key test of Obama's strategy
The largest military offensive of the eight-year war in Afghanistan, launched this weekend in southwestern Helmand province, is a crucial test for President Obama's strategy of more troops, more civilians and more money.
Sir Jock Stirrup says UK troops 'must win Afghan trust'
The head of the UK's armed forces, Sir Jock Stirrup, has said the killing of 12 civilians during Operation Moshtarak in Afghanistan was a "serious setback".
Suspected U.S. Drone Strike Kills 3 in Pakistan
This is the second drone attack in 2 days. On Sunday, officials say seven militants were killed when two missiles, fired from a drone, struck a militant training compound in the town of Mir Ali
Pakistan lawyers rally against president
Hundreds of lawyers joined rallies across Pakistan on Monday denouncing President Asif Ali Zardari after he clashed with the Supreme Court in a fresh crisis for the insurgency-hit nation.
Yemen Houthis free Saudi captive
Yemen's Houthi rebels have handed over one of five captured Saudi Arabian soldiers to committee overseeing the group's ceasefire with the government.
Iraqi lawmaker: Sunni boycott won't solve standoff
A top Sunni Arab leader, banned from running in next month's elections, said Monday that a Sunni boycott won't solve a standoff over who can run in Iraq's next parliament — though he stopped short of urging his supporters to vote.
Anti-Saddam purge both woos and worries Iraq voters
Government rhetoric against Saddam Hussein's Baath party will woo some Iraqi Shi'ite voters ahead of an election, but many people feel uneasy about a return to the sectarian politics that has spilled so much blood.
ANALYSIS - Iraqi PM Maliki weakened ahead of national vote
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki came out of local polls last year as Iraq's dominant leader, but a string of bombings and alliances among rivals have weakened him ahead of a March national vote.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Battle of the Blow Hards
I tend to avoid U.S. political debates like the plague. The only reason I am posting this is due to the topics discussed by the current and former Vice President. From a neutral perspective based upon public statements and news reports overseas, the Obama administration champions a kill-not-capture policy while Cheney pushes for an aggressive kill-and-capture policy. I still cannot figure out where either side stands on homegrown terrorists.
I will leave it to sound bite pundits to remove the context of the interviews to damn the side they oppose. Here in their full context are the two interviews from this morning.
VP Biden
Former VP Cheney
I will leave it to sound bite pundits to remove the context of the interviews to damn the side they oppose. Here in their full context are the two interviews from this morning.
VP Biden
Former VP Cheney
Coming Soon - Behind Taliban Lines
A new Frontline special on the Taliban will air and be available online February 23, 2010. Program description follows:
"This past fall, an Afghan video journalist negotiated extraordinary access to a part of the country that has quietly reverted back to Taliban control. For close to two weeks, the journalist traveled a region that he found was now largely under control of the Taliban "shadow" government. He also tracked members of an insurgent cell working with members of Al Qaeda on a mission to sabotage a major U.S./NATO supply route. As the new U.S. strategy focuses on the south and eastern parts of the country, this film opens up a window onto a potential new front in the north, and sheds an important light on who's fighting the U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and why."
You can check for updates on the Frontline main page here.
The two most recent Frontline specials on the Taliban are embedded below.
Obama's War - October 13, 2009
The War Briefing - Oct. 28, 2008
February 14th Morning Readbook
Forces 'positive' on Afghan assault
In a series of airborne assaults, more than two thousand US and British troops have flooded into Taliban-controlled territory in southern Afghanistan, supporting Afghan forces in the largest military offensive in the country since the 2001 US-led invasion.
Nato aims to add to Afghan gains
Thousands of US, UK and Afghan troops are trying to consolidate gains on the second day of a major offensive against the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.
Pakistan court order raises new instability fears
A decision by Pakistan's Supreme Court to strike down a presidential order appointing two top judges triggered warnings Sunday of a new conflict between the judiciary and the government that could lead to broader political instability.
India says investigating local, foreign leads to blast
India's government said it had little idea who was behind a bomb in a tourist eatery in western India that killed nine people, with sources saying they were looking at the possible involvement of Islamist militants.
Under Obama, more targeted killings than captures in counterterrorism efforts
When a window of opportunity opened to strike the leader of al-Qaeda in East Africa last September, U.S. Special Operations forces prepared several options. They could obliterate his vehicle with an airstrike as he drove through southern Somalia. Or they could fire from helicopters that could land at the scene to confirm the kill. Or they could try to take him alive.
Iraq secular bloc suspends campaign
The Iraqi National Movement, a coalition of Sunni Arabs and secularists, halts election campaigning to protest the upholding of a ban on some candidates. It hints at a ballot boycott.
String of Iraq bomb attacks target poll candidates
A string of bombings targeted groups taking part in Iraq's March election late on Saturday, wounding seven people, an Interior Ministry official said.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
In a series of airborne assaults, more than two thousand US and British troops have flooded into Taliban-controlled territory in southern Afghanistan, supporting Afghan forces in the largest military offensive in the country since the 2001 US-led invasion.
Nato aims to add to Afghan gains
Thousands of US, UK and Afghan troops are trying to consolidate gains on the second day of a major offensive against the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.
Pakistan court order raises new instability fears
A decision by Pakistan's Supreme Court to strike down a presidential order appointing two top judges triggered warnings Sunday of a new conflict between the judiciary and the government that could lead to broader political instability.
India says investigating local, foreign leads to blast
India's government said it had little idea who was behind a bomb in a tourist eatery in western India that killed nine people, with sources saying they were looking at the possible involvement of Islamist militants.
Under Obama, more targeted killings than captures in counterterrorism efforts
When a window of opportunity opened to strike the leader of al-Qaeda in East Africa last September, U.S. Special Operations forces prepared several options. They could obliterate his vehicle with an airstrike as he drove through southern Somalia. Or they could fire from helicopters that could land at the scene to confirm the kill. Or they could try to take him alive.
Iraq secular bloc suspends campaign
The Iraqi National Movement, a coalition of Sunni Arabs and secularists, halts election campaigning to protest the upholding of a ban on some candidates. It hints at a ballot boycott.
String of Iraq bomb attacks target poll candidates
A string of bombings targeted groups taking part in Iraq's March election late on Saturday, wounding seven people, an Interior Ministry official said.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Explaining the Pessimism on Iraq
The pessimistic outlook for Iraq is founded in several fact-based observations. This outlook can easily change as events unfold. As of today, here is where we stand:
1. Al Qaeda in Iraq - They were not "strategically defeated" as previously claimed. The phrase has little to no meaning. Today, they are a failed revolutionary insurgent movement, but the most lethal terrorist force in Iraq.
2. Saddam Trauma - Iraqi government leaders consistently mention al Qaeda in Iraq and Baath in the wake of major attacks. These former exiles, now senior government officials, were telling us a similar story in 2002. As demonstrated by the anti-Baath rhetoric dominating the current election cycle, they truly believe this.
Formula for Violence
We have previously described violence as an indication that control over territory is disputed. We have also stated that the belief in an existential threat is required to incite violence.
Therefore we would have the following formula:
TC + ET = V
or
Territorial control plus existential threat equals violence
Current Momentum
1. Al Qaeda in Iraq will continue to attack the Iraqi government
2. The Iraqi government does not distinguish between a former Baath party member and a current member of al Qaeda in Iraq
Therefore -
The Iraqi government will eventually be forced to conduct a unilateral security operation against al Qaeda in Iraq completely independent from U.S. influence or support.
Projected Outcome
1. Due to the Iraqi government's consistent mixing of the Baath and al Qaeda in Iraq, this pending operation will likely target Sunni Arabs at large.
2. Such an operation will complete the TC + ET = V formula for Sunni Arab civilians under siege.
3. If the Iraqi government does not succeed immediately in crushing the will to fight, a new insurgency is inevitable.
1. Al Qaeda in Iraq - They were not "strategically defeated" as previously claimed. The phrase has little to no meaning. Today, they are a failed revolutionary insurgent movement, but the most lethal terrorist force in Iraq.
2. Saddam Trauma - Iraqi government leaders consistently mention al Qaeda in Iraq and Baath in the wake of major attacks. These former exiles, now senior government officials, were telling us a similar story in 2002. As demonstrated by the anti-Baath rhetoric dominating the current election cycle, they truly believe this.
Formula for Violence
We have previously described violence as an indication that control over territory is disputed. We have also stated that the belief in an existential threat is required to incite violence.
Therefore we would have the following formula:
TC + ET = V
or
Territorial control plus existential threat equals violence
Current Momentum
1. Al Qaeda in Iraq will continue to attack the Iraqi government
2. The Iraqi government does not distinguish between a former Baath party member and a current member of al Qaeda in Iraq
Therefore -
The Iraqi government will eventually be forced to conduct a unilateral security operation against al Qaeda in Iraq completely independent from U.S. influence or support.
Projected Outcome
1. Due to the Iraqi government's consistent mixing of the Baath and al Qaeda in Iraq, this pending operation will likely target Sunni Arabs at large.
2. Such an operation will complete the TC + ET = V formula for Sunni Arab civilians under siege.
3. If the Iraqi government does not succeed immediately in crushing the will to fight, a new insurgency is inevitable.
COIN/CT Lessons from Drug Induced Dancing
You may have already seen this video, but it is a great parable on trendy social movements and tipping points.
The audio description is what I found most interesting. The main lesson to walk away with is how crucial it was to easily mimic the dance. Were this a difficult dance, the originator would have been nothing more than an observed solo performer. Also the role of the first follower made it acceptable for a few more people to join. Once the first follower's friends join in, the tipping point is then reached at 1:15. From then on, people join in groups and the originator or "leader" is irrelevant as the movement has a life of his own. Only the music ending stops everyone from dancing, not the "leader."
Now take that template and apply it to al Qaeda in Iraq. What sort of impact would killing or capturing the leadership have today? This is precisely why the classic insurgency texts emphasized the need to destroy an insurgency at its onset. Otherwise it becomes an integrated part of a society for at least a generation if not longer. So how do we end the al Qaeda-styled movements? Find the music and turn it off.
The book "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell is a great starting point for those interested in mapping the epidemic-like spread of societal trends through social networks.
The audio description is what I found most interesting. The main lesson to walk away with is how crucial it was to easily mimic the dance. Were this a difficult dance, the originator would have been nothing more than an observed solo performer. Also the role of the first follower made it acceptable for a few more people to join. Once the first follower's friends join in, the tipping point is then reached at 1:15. From then on, people join in groups and the originator or "leader" is irrelevant as the movement has a life of his own. Only the music ending stops everyone from dancing, not the "leader."
Now take that template and apply it to al Qaeda in Iraq. What sort of impact would killing or capturing the leadership have today? This is precisely why the classic insurgency texts emphasized the need to destroy an insurgency at its onset. Otherwise it becomes an integrated part of a society for at least a generation if not longer. So how do we end the al Qaeda-styled movements? Find the music and turn it off.
The book "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell is a great starting point for those interested in mapping the epidemic-like spread of societal trends through social networks.
February 13th Morning Readbook
Iraq's political wrangling
What happened to national reconciliation? Is Saddam in his grave stronger than Maliki's government? And is Maliki upholding the law or playing with fire?
Saddam shadow darkens Iraq elections
The legacy of Saddam Hussein continues to divide Iraq. Preparations for the country's parliamentary election have been thrown into chaos by a row over a decision to ban hundreds of candidates because of alleged links to the former president's now outlawed Baath Party.
Iraqi politics in disarray as US pullback nears
With elections looming and the U.S. withdrawal of combat troops less than seven months away, political disarray is threatening Iraq's future as well its past. A parliamentary logjam is holding up legislation touching everything from prison staff, border crossings and counterterrorism troops to an archaeological excavation in dire need of tourists.
Anti-Baath campaign a spur to Iraq Shiite voters
But some experts call claims that the former Baath Party of Saddam Hussein is resurgent an election ploy. They say the two main Shiite blocs feared a public swing away from sectarian politics.
Marines meet with Afghans to explain offensive, seek support
Hundreds of Afghan men walked for miles over dusty roads Saturday morning to get to an open-air meeting to hear the Marines explain those angry sounds of war coming from the Taliban stronghold of Marja.
Helicopter armada heralds Afghanistan surge
An armada of helicopters lifted a vast force against Taliban strongholds today in the biggest operation ever mounted in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's president backs better ties with India
Good relations between Pakistan and India are vital for fighting Islamist militancy, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said on Saturday, as the old rivals prepare for their first official talks since the Mumbai attack.
Yemen rebels 'implementing truce terms'
Shiite rebels in Yemen said on Saturday they had pulled out of an occupied airport in the north and were arranging to free their Saudi prisoners, in line with a truce agreed with Sanaa.
Thousands flee Somalia fighting, says UN refugee agency
Thousands of people have fled Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, since Wednesday, the UN refugee agency has said.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
What happened to national reconciliation? Is Saddam in his grave stronger than Maliki's government? And is Maliki upholding the law or playing with fire?
Saddam shadow darkens Iraq elections
The legacy of Saddam Hussein continues to divide Iraq. Preparations for the country's parliamentary election have been thrown into chaos by a row over a decision to ban hundreds of candidates because of alleged links to the former president's now outlawed Baath Party.
Iraqi politics in disarray as US pullback nears
With elections looming and the U.S. withdrawal of combat troops less than seven months away, political disarray is threatening Iraq's future as well its past. A parliamentary logjam is holding up legislation touching everything from prison staff, border crossings and counterterrorism troops to an archaeological excavation in dire need of tourists.
Anti-Baath campaign a spur to Iraq Shiite voters
But some experts call claims that the former Baath Party of Saddam Hussein is resurgent an election ploy. They say the two main Shiite blocs feared a public swing away from sectarian politics.
Marines meet with Afghans to explain offensive, seek support
Hundreds of Afghan men walked for miles over dusty roads Saturday morning to get to an open-air meeting to hear the Marines explain those angry sounds of war coming from the Taliban stronghold of Marja.
Helicopter armada heralds Afghanistan surge
An armada of helicopters lifted a vast force against Taliban strongholds today in the biggest operation ever mounted in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's president backs better ties with India
Good relations between Pakistan and India are vital for fighting Islamist militancy, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said on Saturday, as the old rivals prepare for their first official talks since the Mumbai attack.
Yemen rebels 'implementing truce terms'
Shiite rebels in Yemen said on Saturday they had pulled out of an occupied airport in the north and were arranging to free their Saudi prisoners, in line with a truce agreed with Sanaa.
Thousands flee Somalia fighting, says UN refugee agency
Thousands of people have fled Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, since Wednesday, the UN refugee agency has said.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Friday, February 12, 2010
February 12th Morning Readbook
Iraq 'upholds' poll ban on two MPs
A panel of Iraqi judges has reportedly upheld the decision to bar two prominent Sunni members of parliament from contesting in general elections scheduled for March 7.
Iraq election campaign begins
Official campaigning for Iraq's March 7 general election started on Friday in a tense atmosphere overshadowed by angry demands from provincial leaders that workers linked to Saddam Hussein be fired.
How the Taliban pressed bin Laden
Evidence now available from various sources, including recently declassified United States State Department documents, shows that the Taliban regime led by Mullah Mohammad Omar imposed strict isolation on Osama bin Laden after 1998 to prevent him from carrying out any plots against the United States.
US and Afghan troops ring Taliban stronghold
U.S. and Afghan forces ringed the Taliban stronghold of Marjah on Thursday, sealing off escape routes and setting the stage for what is being described as the biggest offensive of the nine-year war.
Five Americans wounded in suicide attack at US base in Afghanistan
An Afghan official says a suicide attacker wearing a police uniform blew himself up at a US base in eastern Afghanistan, wounding five Americans. The spokesman for Paktia province, Roullah Samoun, says the attack occurred tonight in the Dand aw Patan district near the Pakistan border about 70 kilometres east of Gardez.
Pakistan and India to Resume Talks on Feb. 25 in New Delhi
Talks between Pakistan and India halted by the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks will resume on Feb. 25 as the two countries’ foreign secretaries meet in New Delhi, Pakistan’s government said in a statement.
Yemen government and rebels call ceasefire
Hopes that truce will bring an end to six-year conflict which has diverted resources from fighting al-Qaida in the country
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Thursday, February 11, 2010
RIP Congressman Wilson
***Skip to the 36:00 mark***
For those interested in more on the real story of Charlie Wilson's war here are a few links. I highly recommend the History Channel DVD as it stars the former Congressman himself.
Follow Up: Vindication Via Kilcullen
Previously I posted on David Kilcullen
corroborating concepts we have discussed here. After speaking with a few friends, I felt it important to note where I disagree with Kilcullen and other modern COIN theorists.
I still do not understand why we insist on calling resistance against the governments of two democratic revolutions "insurgencies." The Awakening was against al Qaeda in Iraq, not for the Iraqi government. There are areas in Afghanistan where locals reject the Taliban and the Karzai government. Foreign forces surrounding a village and helping locals rebuild wheelbarrows fosters a temporary working relationship, not acceptance of a new national government.
The revolutionary aspects of these two wars are completely overlooked. We are admittedly terrible at information operations and still have yet to stand up any significant political indoctrination programs. The Taliban will settle land disputes and administer "justice" through sharia courts. ISAF will repair irrigation and tell opium farmers to plant wheat. How are these two actions remotely related?
"Body count" is the only one of Kilcullen's recommendations that really bothered me. If this is being used anywhere it demonstrates the inability of the U.S. to institutionalize lessons learned. This metric is mentioned as a criticism in almost every post-Vietnam paper and is just shy of advising against a Westmoreland-styled strategy of attrition against insurgents. This was the first and most important lesson learned from Vietnam. If this has to be told to U.S. forces in Afghanistan today, we are in far greater trouble than we are currently aware.
Tom Ricks
' three Kilcullen excerpts can be found here, here, and here.
corroborating concepts we have discussed here. After speaking with a few friends, I felt it important to note where I disagree with Kilcullen and other modern COIN theorists.I still do not understand why we insist on calling resistance against the governments of two democratic revolutions "insurgencies." The Awakening was against al Qaeda in Iraq, not for the Iraqi government. There are areas in Afghanistan where locals reject the Taliban and the Karzai government. Foreign forces surrounding a village and helping locals rebuild wheelbarrows fosters a temporary working relationship, not acceptance of a new national government.
The revolutionary aspects of these two wars are completely overlooked. We are admittedly terrible at information operations and still have yet to stand up any significant political indoctrination programs. The Taliban will settle land disputes and administer "justice" through sharia courts. ISAF will repair irrigation and tell opium farmers to plant wheat. How are these two actions remotely related?
"Body count" is the only one of Kilcullen's recommendations that really bothered me. If this is being used anywhere it demonstrates the inability of the U.S. to institutionalize lessons learned. This metric is mentioned as a criticism in almost every post-Vietnam paper and is just shy of advising against a Westmoreland-styled strategy of attrition against insurgents. This was the first and most important lesson learned from Vietnam. If this has to be told to U.S. forces in Afghanistan today, we are in far greater trouble than we are currently aware.
Tom Ricks
' three Kilcullen excerpts can be found here, here, and here.
Basics of COIN Part 7: Threat
Existential threats, whether real or perceived, are the primary instigators of insurgent and counterrevolutionary violence. Political grievances can be found everywhere but most do not translate into violent activity. If a people, social network, or class believe they are on the verge of being annihilated, they will defend themselves. In other words, the system of government is irrelevant when there is a widespread belief of violent injustice.
The concept of defending others is a powerful point for indoctrinating new recruits as well as a strong narrative to gain and maintain popular support. This is done on all sides of a conflict as it holds a universal appeal to human nature; defending the weak against aggression. Osama Bin Ladin would consistently portray the U.S. as the aggressors while he was merely defending all the Muslim people.
And that day, it was confirmed to me that oppression and the intentional killing of innocent women and children is a deliberate American policy. Destruction is freedom and democracy, while resistance is terrorism and intolerance.
This means the oppressing and embargoing to death of millions as Bush Sr did in Iraq in the greatest mass slaughter of children mankind has ever known, and it means the throwing of millions of pounds of bombs and explosives at millions of children - also in Iraq - as Bush Jr did, in order to remove an old agent and replace him with a new puppet to assist in the pilfering of Iraq's oil and other outrages.
So with these images and their like as their background, the events of September 11th came as a reply to those great wrongs, should a man be blamed for defending his sanctuary?
Is defending oneself and punishing the aggressor in kind, objectionable terrorism? If it is such, then it is unavoidable for us.
Osama Bin Ladin - November 2004
Whether the threat is real or imagined is irrelevant. It simply must be believed in order for violence to occur. This is the most crucial information to discover about a local area. Identify the rumors, truth, and spin propagating the belief of an existential threat. Countering this belief is essential to countering insurgents and counterrevolutionaries.
A word of caution. If a foreign force or host nation government is determined to violently neutralize a group of people, negating the perceptions of an existential threat may ultimately facilitate an attempt at genocide similar to what we witnessed in Iraq after the parliamentary elections and government formation in 2006. When people have no option but to fight or die, they will do exactly that.
February 11th Morning Readbook
Opposition on Iran's anniversary
Joe Biden update: Iraq one of Obama's 'great achievements'
I am very optimistic about -- about Iraq. I mean, this could be one of the great achievements of this administration. You're going to see 90,000 American troops come marching home by the end of the summer. You're going to see a stable government in Iraq that is actually moving toward a representative government.
Biden: Qaeda moving to small, frightening attacks
Vice President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that al Qaeda was moving in the direction of smaller but "devastatingly frightening" attacks and he viewed the chance of another September 11-style mass assault as unlikely.
Iraq Oil Line Bombed; Output Drops
Attackers bombed a frequently attacked oil pipeline north of Baghdad, slowing production at a refinery in the capital by half, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said Wednesday.
Afghan campaign seeks to avoid Iraq mistakes
Chances of success for a NATO offensive in the last big Taliban bastion in Afghanistan's Helmand province may depend on ensuring the operation doesn't repeat the destruction of Fallujah in Iraq in 2004.
Taliban, Marines exchange fire as battle looms
U.S. Marines and Taliban insurgents exchanged gunfire Thursday on the outskirts of Marjah, a southern militant stronghold where American and Afghan forces are expected to launch a major attack in the coming days.
Iran opposes Taliban reintegration
Tehran rejected plans to make peace with moderate Taliban members as part of a broad reconciliation effort unveiled by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Qaeda threats should be taken seriously: Yemen FM
Yemen's foreign minister has warned that Al-Qaeda threats should be taken seriously, after a top militant said the network's local branch aims to seize control of a strategic international waterway.
The latest news from Al Jazeera
Joe Biden update: Iraq one of Obama's 'great achievements'
I am very optimistic about -- about Iraq. I mean, this could be one of the great achievements of this administration. You're going to see 90,000 American troops come marching home by the end of the summer. You're going to see a stable government in Iraq that is actually moving toward a representative government.
Biden: Qaeda moving to small, frightening attacks
Vice President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that al Qaeda was moving in the direction of smaller but "devastatingly frightening" attacks and he viewed the chance of another September 11-style mass assault as unlikely.
Iraq Oil Line Bombed; Output Drops
Attackers bombed a frequently attacked oil pipeline north of Baghdad, slowing production at a refinery in the capital by half, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said Wednesday.
Afghan campaign seeks to avoid Iraq mistakes
Chances of success for a NATO offensive in the last big Taliban bastion in Afghanistan's Helmand province may depend on ensuring the operation doesn't repeat the destruction of Fallujah in Iraq in 2004.
Taliban, Marines exchange fire as battle looms
U.S. Marines and Taliban insurgents exchanged gunfire Thursday on the outskirts of Marjah, a southern militant stronghold where American and Afghan forces are expected to launch a major attack in the coming days.
Iran opposes Taliban reintegration
Tehran rejected plans to make peace with moderate Taliban members as part of a broad reconciliation effort unveiled by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Qaeda threats should be taken seriously: Yemen FM
Yemen's foreign minister has warned that Al-Qaeda threats should be taken seriously, after a top militant said the network's local branch aims to seize control of a strategic international waterway.
The latest news from Al Jazeera
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
February 10th Morning Readbook
Iraq poll candidate ban appeals wrongly presented
Almost all the candidates who contested their ban from Iraq's upcoming parliamentary election did not submit their cases properly and may have lost the chance to appeal, an Iraqi legal body said on Tuesday. Nearly 500 candidates for Iraq's March 7 vote were disqualified from standing in the election by the Justice and Accountability Commission for alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party, sparking political uproar.
Security developments in Iraq, Feb 10
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed two policemen and wounded four others on the western outskirts of Baghdad, police said.
MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded three people including a district official in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
MOSUL - A sticky bomb attached to the car of an Iraqi soldier wounded him in eastern Mosul, police said.
MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed a civilian and wounded six others on Tuesday in eastern Mosul, police said.
Iraq Kurdistan oil exports to resume in coming days
Iraq expects to announce the resumption of oil exports from its northern Kurdistan region in the "coming days", Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told reporters on Wednesday.
Pakistani officials: Taliban chief is dead
Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud has died, the country's top civilian security official told The Associated Press Wednesday, giving the government's first categorical confirmation of the death of the feared militant leader.
Marines plan joint mission to eject insurgents from last Helmand stronghold
In the late 1950s, scores of U.S. engineers transformed a swath of uninhabited desert in southern Afghanistan into verdant farmland by constructing a network of irrigation canals fed by the Helmand River. The Afghan government filled the area, which it called Marja, with Pashtun nomads and told them to grow wheat.
Toll Mounts in Afghan Avalanche
High in the Hindu Kush mountain range, Basir Salangi, a senior provincial official, surveyed a vista of tragedy on Wednesday after avalanches buried hundreds of cars and severed Kabul’s heavily traveled link to northern Afghanistan. The death toll seemed far higher, he said, than initially feared.
Yemen getting tougher with Somalis on Qaeda fears
Somalis fleeing war have long found refuge in Yemen, seen as a way station to Saudi Arabia, but fear of al Qaeda infiltration has cooled their welcome.
Opposing view: 'We need no lectures' By John Brennan
Politics should never get in the way of national security. But too many in Washington are now misrepresenting the facts to score political points, instead of coming together to keep us safe.
Brennan: Political 'fear-mongering' serves 'the goals of al-Qaeda'
President Obama's top counter-terrorism adviser asserted Tuesday that "too many in Washington are now misrepresenting the facts to score political points" regarding the administration's handling of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the alleged Christmas Day bomber.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Vindication Via Kilcullen
Last week we posted our sixth installment of the Basics of COIN series dealing with violence as a metric. We noted that violence is an indication of disputed territory, not an indication of stability. Yesterday, David Kilcullen was highlighted on Tom Ricks' blog discussing what not to measure in a COIN environment.
You can read Ricks' full entry here.
was highlighted on Tom Ricks' blog discussing what not to measure in a COIN environment."SIGACTs, especially those involving violence against the coalition." This is a related point. Be wary of SIGACTs trends. Violence may be low in an area simply because it is in the uncontested control of the enemy.
You can read Ricks' full entry here.
February 9th Morning Readbook
Most banned Iraqi poll candidates' appeals rejected
Almost all the candidates who contested their ban from Iraq's upcoming parliamentary election did not submit their cases properly and lost the chance to appeal, an Iraqi legal body said on Tuesday.
Ba'ath ban sparks fears
A ban on election candidates accused of links to Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led Ba'ath party is threatening to drag Iraq into civil war, a former prime minister said yesterday.
In Northern Iraq, a Vote Seems Likely to Split
There was a hope, not long ago, that democracy would mean peace and stability for Nineveh, a place where cultures and armies have clashed since biblical times. Instead, democracy is hardening divisions — of people, of resources, of land — in ways that threaten the future of Iraq itself.
Taliban claim to debut new bomb 'Omar'
The Taliban claimed Tuesday to have developed a new bomb nicknamed Omar after their fugitive leader and which they say is impossible Western mine sweepers to detect.
Pakistani Military Retakes Key Town in Tribal Belt From Taliban
The Pakistani military has retaken the key town of Damadola, in the Bajaur area of the tribal belt, where the army has been fighting Taliban militants for more than a year, military and local officials said Monday.
Yemen: Qaeda Affiliate Urges Joint Blockade of Red Sea
The Yemen-based wing of Al Qaeda called Monday for a regional holy war and a blockade of the Red Sea to cut off shipments to Israel. In an audio recording posted on a jihadist Web site, the group’s deputy leader, Said Ali al-Shihri, called on the Somali insurgent group Shabab to help block the strait that separates Yemen from the Horn of Africa. The Shabab does not control the African side of the strait.
The main headlines on Al Jazeera
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