Inside Story - Iraq's fledling democracy

Allawi Did Not Win

(AP Photo/Karim Kadim)


In spite of what many headlines have said, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi did not win the recent election. More importantly, a recent Federal Supreme Court decision stating that political coalitions can be formed AFTER the election has in essence negated the results. Prior to this decision Iyad Allawi's secular Iraqiyah coalition would have formed the new Iraqi government.

Below are some highlights as to what is really occurring in Iraq's post-election period.


Allawi Accuses Tehran of Meddling in Iraqi Politics

Ayad Allawi, leader of the bloc that won the most seats in Iraq's parliamentary election, lashed out at Iran on Tuesday, accusing Tehran of interfering in the battle to form a new government in Baghdad.

Mr. Allawi's cross-sectarian political bloc secured a narrow victory over Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-dominated slate in the March 7 vote, potentially upending the lock on power that the country's majority Shiites have had since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. But Mr. Allawi didn't win a majority of seats in the 325-member parliament, and is battling the incumbent to lock in enough coalition partners to form a stable government.

Representatives from Mr. Maliki's State of Law slate and from the two most influential parties inside a Shiite umbrella slate that finished third all recently visited Tehran at the same time. Iran has exerted significant political and economic power in Iraq since shortly after Mr. Hussein's ouster, when Shiite Iraqis rose to power.


Asharq Al-Awsat Talks to Iraqi VP Tariq al-Hashimi

Tariq al-Hashimi, the Iraqi vice president and prominent leader in Al-Iraqiya List led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi which won the legislative elections held on 7 March, has stated that Al-Iraqiya faced major challenges like "disqualification and Debathification" and also "the campaigns of distortion and tampering with the voters' will." He pointed out that his bloc was open to all the political forces to ally themselves with it but did not refer to an alliance with the State of Law Coalition [SLC] which is led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki who rejected the results of the elections. Al- Iraqiya List won 91 seats, two seats more than Al-Maliki's list.


Iraq election: Victorious candidates may be purged, boosting Maliki

Six winning candidates in Iraq elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats – which would cost secular politician Iyad Allawi's bloc its narrow victory – if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday.


Maliki is block in Iraq coalition merger talks

Maliki's State of Law (SOL) coalition is negotiating a possible union with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, to form the largest bloc in Iraq's next parliament. The Sadrists' strong election showing makes Sadr a potential kingmaker.

An alliance between the two major Shi'ite parties could push former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition, the top vote-getter in Iraq's March 7 election, to the sidelines. That could anger many Sunnis who voted for Allawi and deepen Iraq's sectarian divide.


Iran 'preventing’ Ayad Allawi from becoming Iraq’s prime minister

Tehran was interfering in the election process in Iraq, where his Iraqiya bloc won 91 seats in the 325-member Council of Representatives, two more than Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance, he told the BBC.

“Iran is interfering quite heavily and this is worrying,” Mr Allawi told the broadcaster, accusing the Islamic republic of inviting all the major parties to Tehran apart from his bloc.

“They have invited everybody – but they haven’t invited us – to Tehran,” he said.

Asked directly whether Iran wanted to stop him becoming prime minister, Mr Allawi responded: “I think so, they made it very clear ... that they have a red line.

“We are concerned about respecting the will of the Iraqi people.”


Iraqi commission moves to disqualify winning candidates

Six winning candidates in Iraq's parliamentary elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats — which would cost secular politician Ayad Allawi's bloc its narrow victory — if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday.

The President's Visit to Afghanistan

No word on what the President was able to eat during his visit. The U.S. war on American corporate food franchises rages on in Afghanistan. Oh and al Qaeda and the Taliban are still out there too.

Admin Note

(AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)


Due to professional, academic, and personal commitments I will no longer post the Morning Readbook. For those that need an alternative I recommend the Small Wars Journal Roundup.


Below are the search terms and websites I would use to generate the morning readbook.

For Stories - 

Google News

Search Terms - "Taliban" "Qaeda" "Afghanistan" "Pakistan" "Iraq" or any other country or topic grabbing headlines that week.

SAMPLE

Top story searching "taliban" -

India shifts Afghan policy, ready to talk to Taliban


For Photos - 

Yahoo News World Photos

Search Terms - The country of choice generates the widest selection of photos. The exception would be anything related to CT in the United States. In that case I would search "homeland"

SAMPLE -

"Iraq"

Pictures of premier-elect Iyad Allawi (L) and outgoing premier Nuri al-Malaki are seen on the front page of an Iraqi newspaper in Baghdad on March 27. Maliki, whose bloc came second in Iraq's general election, sharply criticised the UN envoy to Baghdad on Sunday over his inaction on vote fraud allegations. (AFP/Ali al-Saadi)

Original can be found at this link.


For Video -

Al Jazeera English

I would embed the latest news bulletin at end the readbook.

SAMPLE




Also, I would search through any of their recent programs or segments to see if there was one of interest. There are many detailed stories that never make mainstream headlines but are very applicable to the current COIN/CT debates.  Below is a perfect example.







Final Notes -

I plan on posting two more segments in the Basics of COIN series. The next one will deal with Chaotic and Complex scenarios.

As far as the current COIN/CT conflict are concerned, I am waiting to see if Maliki will actually step down from power and what the new Iraqi government will look like when it finally forms. Afghanistan is far too early to make a call without guessing.

More to follow...

March 23rd Morning Readbook

Karzai in talks with Taliban allies 




World Digest: Afghanistan's Karzai talks to representatives of insurgent faction
President Hamid Karzai held talks in Kabul on Monday with representatives of one of the key insurgent groups battling his government, as the president continues his high-stakes push for an eventual reconciliation among all of Afghanistan's warring factions.


Pakistan army chief begins US strategic dialogue
Pakistan's army chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani has met US defence leaders in Washington as the two countries begin a week-long strategic dialogue.


Pakistan asks court to let it reopen probe of nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan
The Pakistani government on Monday sought a court's permission in Lahore to reopen its probe into scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan and his role in nuclear weapons-related discussions and transactions with Iran and Iraq.


U.S. Officials Meet Iraqi Leader After Recount Call
The two top American officials in Iraq met Monday with Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki after his endorsement over the weekend of a recount in the parliamentary elections incited fears of a political crisis in a country not accustomed to peaceful transfers of power.


Iraq election front-runners court possible allies
With the complete results in Iraq's election just days away, there were signs Monday the two front runners were reaching out to other political parties, signaling the start of the jockeying to form the next ruling coalition.


U.S. judge orders release of Guantanamo detainee
A federal judge ordered on Monday that a man accused of having ties to some of the hijackers in the September 11, 2001, attacks, be released from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.


Netanyahu disrupted at Aipac gala 
Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister,  has been disrupted in Washington DC by activists protesting against Israeli policy in the Middle East.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 22nd Morning Readbook

An Iraqi soldier stands guard in front of a poster of former Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi in Baghdad. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's calls for a recount of votes from Iraq's polls were on Sunday rebuffed by its election commission, amid a tight race to form the biggest bloc in parliament. (AFP/Ali al-Saadi)


Prime minister warns of violence, but election board rejects call for recount
As new results from this month's election continued to show a neck-and-neck race, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday issued a strongly worded warning that without a nationwide recount, the country could descend into violence. The electoral commission quickly rejected the request, saying a recount would be neither necessary nor feasible.


Iraq’s Premier Endorses a Recount of the Vote
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki endorsed the mounting calls for a recount of Iraq’s parliamentary election, as the latest results on Sunday showed his main competitor with a slight lead.


Drone strike kills eight in North Waziristan
A US drone aircraft fired two missiles into an al Qaeda and Taliban hideout in North Waziristan on Sunday, killing eight terrorists, Pakistani intelligence officials said.


Afghan bomb attacks kill at least 12 civilians
A suicide bomber killed 10 civilians on Sunday when he detonated his explosives near a crowd in southern Afghanistan, while a roadside bomb in the east killed two others, officials said.


Iran's supreme leader says U.S. fails to act on promise for better ties
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Sunday that the United States failed to act on its promise to establish better ties with the Islamic Republic, Iran's satellite channel Press TV reported.


Analysts say US-Israel Relationship Scarred by Settlements Dispute
Middle East analysts are expressing concern a disagreement between the United States and Israel over Jewish settlements in occupied East Jerusalem will leave scars in the relationship and may raise the risk of Israeli military strikes against Iran's nuclear program. 


The main headlines on Al Jazeera

"Israel...seen as the problem"

The Anti-Defamation League, known for defending Israel's interests in the United States by raising antisemitism awareness, attacked General David Petraeus earlier this week. Out of all the statements to come out of Israel's attempt to bully the U.S., this action shocked me the most.


*NOTE- As with most counter-arguements devoid of any fact or intellectual merit, to avoid the "hate card" I will say up front that I am not antisemitic. I simply do not place the security of any nation before the security and welfare of my own.

You can read the full statement here.

Gen. Petraeus has simply erred in linking the challenges faced by the U.S. and coalition forces in the region to a solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and blaming extremist activities on the absence of peace and the perceived U.S. favoritism for Israel.  This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive.

Whenever the Israeli-Arab conflict is made a focal point, Israel comes to be seen as the problem.  If only Israel would stop settlements, if only Israel would talk with Hamas, if only Israel would make concessions on refugees, if only it would share Jerusalem, everything in the region would then fall into line.

This is propaganda in its purest form; truth twisted to advance a political agenda. There are only four sentences in which I quoted so I will address each individual one.

Gen. Petraeus has simply erred in linking the challenges faced by the U.S. and coalition forces in the region to a solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and blaming extremist activities on the absence of peace and the perceived U.S. favoritism for Israel.

I would like the ADL to identify an insurgent or terrorist group that does not link the challenges faced by the U.S. forces to perceived U.S.

This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive.

This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive for Israel. Unfortunately, it is rooted in more fact that this statement.

Whenever the Israeli-Arab conflict is made a focal point, Israel comes to be seen as the problem.

Suffocating a man in the hotel of a foreign country using a falsified passport of an individual belonging to a supposed "ally" will add to this perspective.

If only Israel would stop settlements, if only Israel would talk with Hamas, if only Israel would make concessions on refugees, if only it would share Jerusalem, everything in the region would then fall into line.

These are three requests being asked by nearly every nation in the world, all rejected by Israel.


In order to better understand our takfiri enemy, we need to understand the messages that resonate with a moderate audience. It it their solutions that are extreme, not always the perspectives. The last word goes to al Qaeda as they demonstrate on video how they manipulate American policies to remain a relevant opposition terrorist group.

March 21st Morning Readbook

Iraqis voice hopes for the future 




Iraq's Iyad Allawi urges swifter election result
Iyad Allawi, who headed the country from 2004 to 2005, told the BBC full results from the 7 March election should have been released days ago.


Iraq's Maliki asks for recount, warns of violence
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki called for a nationwide recount of votes from Iraq's March 7 parliamentary election, warning the country could return to violence if the demand was not met.


Brothers who filmed and performed al Qaeda-style military manoeuvres in local park convicted of terrorist offences
Two brothers who filmed themselves on al Qaeda-style military manoeuvres in their local park were convicted of terrorist offences yesterday.


Pakistani Taliban Kill 4, Calling Them US Spies
The bullet-riddled bodies of four Pakistani tribesmen, killed by the Taliban for allegedly spying for the United States, were found Sunday in a semiautonomous tribal region near the Afghan border, witnesses and officials said.


Marines offer cash in fight against Afghan opium
After weeks of intense fighting over the Taliban stronghold of Marjah, U.S. Marines are now taking cautious aim at the drugs trade, with a program designed to pay opium farmers to destroy their own crops without a fight.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 20th Morning Readbook

Inside Story - Iraq's election results 




Allawi back in Iraq vote-count lead 
The latest results from Iraq's parliamentary election show the Iraqiya coalition, led by Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister, regaining a narrow lead.


Iraq: Key figures since the war began
-- U.S. TROOP LEVELS:

March 31, 2003: 90,000.

October 2007: 170,000 at peak of troop buildup.

March 1, 2010: Just over 96,000.

COALITION TROOP LEVELS:

Number of countries that participated in "Coalition for the Immediate Disarmament of Iraq" at the start of the war: 31, including the United States.

As of August 2009, all non-U.S. coalition members had withdrawn from Iraq.


Pakistan official: 3 Taliban militants arrested
Police arrested three Taliban militants Saturday and seized a bomb-making factory in the southern Pakistan city of Karachi, a counterterrorism official said.


Political Skills Assist Panetta as Spymaster
Intelligence reports landing on CIA Director Leon Panetta's desk last July made the alarming claim that the Pakistani Taliban could have a nuclear device.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 19th Morning Readbook

CIA: Al Qaeda Leaders on the Run




Pakistan Tribes Plan Anti-Taliban Strategy at Biggest Gathering
Pakistan’s tribal leaders will discuss a strategy tomorrow to end support for militants, their biggest gathering since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and removed the Taliban from power.


Marjah wrested from the Taliban, but residents say militants remain potent force
In the capital of Afghanistan's Helmand province, Taliban roam the streets freely. Barely a mile (a kilometer) outside Lashkar Gah, they wield more control than the government, according to residents.


Al Maliki Coalition slightly ahead in Iraq
State of Law Coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki is slightly ahead of other coalitions, according to preliminary results of Iraqi Parliamentary elections.


The main headlines on Al Jazeera