Challenge COIN

May 9th Morning Readbook

2010-05-09T01:42:00.000-07:00

Iraq lawmakers' pay under scrutiny

Maliki's actions, and Obama's inaction, threaten an Iraq democracy
Since the success of the 2007 surge in Iraq, violent attacks have fallen more than 90% and Iraqis have been making steady progress toward stability and democracy. That momentum is now threatened by the actions of Iraq's prime minister, Nouri Maliki, and by the inaction of the Obama administration.

Bombs planted in home of policeman kill 3 in Iraq
The bombing was one of several attacks around Iraq's north that killed at least 10 people over the weekend, a sign that authorities are struggling to maintain security as the country's politicians clamor over the shape of a new government two months after an inconclusive election.

Taliban gears up for Western offensive in Kandahar
In an apparent PR effort, a self-styled Taliban spokesman in Kandahar speaks to a reporter, declaring, 'The foreign occupiers have come to our city, and we will fight them.'

US warns Pakistan over Times Square bomb attempt
The United States has delivered a tough new warning to Pakistan to crack down on Islamic militants or face severe consequences after the failed Times Square bombing.

U.S. drone missiles kill at least six in Pakistan
U.S. drone aircraft fired two missiles into a Taliban compound in Pakistan's North Waziristan region on the Afghan border on Sunday, killing at least six militants, Pakistani security officials said.

Kirkland man deported to Iraq for ties to Al Qaeda
A Kirkland man and Iraqi citizen was recently removed to his native country for ties to an Al Qaeda leader after a federal immigration judge deemed him a national security risk, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced Thursday.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

May 8th Morning Readbook

2010-05-08T06:52:00.000-07:00

Kandahar's Karzai confident despite criticism

Are Al-Qaeda and Taliban running out of intelligent recruits in anti-American terrorist campaign
Judging by recent bungled bombing attempts it would seem as if terrorist organizations are scraping the bottom of the barrel and maybe have run out of reasonably intelligent terrorist bombers. Of course "reasonably intelligent" and "terrorist bomber" don't necessarily go hand in hand. The attempt by Faisal Shahzad to bomb Times Square and run, failed miserably. Even the "run" part of the equation didn't work too well. Add the botched job by another terrorist in Detroit on Christmas Day and you have the makings of some either weak links in the terrorist chain or some pretty dumb folks.

Pressure on Pakistan amid fresh terror links
Alleged links between the Times Square plot and extremist networks are adding to perceptions of Pakistan as a global exporter of terrorism and increasing pressure on its military to crack down on extremists along the Afghan border.

Afghanistan's Karzai to ask Obama for billions more to fight Taliban
Afghan President Hamid Karzai will ask for billions more in aid when he travels to Washington next week on a trip aimed at improving relations with Barack Obama.

Attacks signal end of poppy harvest in Afghanistan
The gunfire and explosions echoing across this Taliban-infested district in southern Afghanistan on Friday signaled the end of the opium poppy harvest as militants again turned their attention from agriculture to attacking NATO and Afghan forces.

Afghanistan readies for Kandahar 'operation'

Iraq vote winner asserts right to form government
The leader of the top vote-getting coalition in Iraq's inconclusive March 7 elections insisted his bloc still has the right to form the next government despite an alliance forged this week between two rival Shiite groups.

'Big ideas' key to US surge success in Iraq: Petraeus
The US troop surge succeeded in Iraq because the army embraced new ideas about waging war against insurgents, focusing on winning the trust of local people, top commander General David Petraeus said.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

May 7th Morning Readbook

2010-05-07T04:03:00.000-07:00

Shia blocs form new Iraq alliance

Fear of bloodshed in Iraq as Iran-backed bloc tries to take power
Two months after landmark elections, the State of Law party of Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister, and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which is dominated by Moqtadr al-Sadr, the radical cleric, announced that they would jointly form a new government. The deal was apparently put together with the help of the Iranian Embassy in Baghdad, which maintains close ties with Shia political parties. They expect to have a narrow majority in parliament.

Iraq vote winner asserts right to form government
The leader of Iraq's top vote-getting coalition in the inconclusive March elections is saying that his bloc still has the right to form the next government. Ayad Allawi returned to Iraq after touring the Mideast since his cross-sectarian Iraqiya party eked out a slim lead in the balloting. He met with the heads of other political parties late on Thursday.

Pakistani Taliban Are Said to Expand Alliances
The Pakistani Taliban, which American investigators suspect were behind the attempt to bomb Times Square, have in recent years combined forces with Al Qaeda and other groups, threatening to extend their reach and ambitions, Western diplomats, intelligence officials and experts say.

Pakistani Taliban: NY bomb attempt a 'brave' act
The Pakistani Taliban on Thursday denied any role in the botched car bombing in Times Square but praised the suspect for a "brave job," as New York authorities pressed him on his claims of terrorist training.

Obama talks about Afghanistan, Pakistan with national security team
It seems likely the Times Square bombing attempt came up today at President Obama's national security meeting on Afghanistan and Pakistan, though officials aren't saying much.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Counterterrorism and Finite Deduction

2010-05-04T20:43:00.000-07:00

There are an infinite number of ways to conduct a terrorist attack but a finite number of terrorists. Find the common link among these individuals.

Faisal Shazad
US Citizen
Allegedly trained in Pakistan

Najibullah Zazi
US Citizen
Trained in Pakistan

David Coleman Headley
US Citizen
Trained in Pakistan

Waqar Hasan
US Citizen
Training in Pakistan before arrest

At most this very basic behavioral profile can generate leads. Old fashion detective work like we witnessed only after the failed bombing in Times Square is still required.

Update on the Latest Failure

2010-05-04T17:54:00.000-07:00

This undated image, obtained from orkut.com on May 4, 2010, shows Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani-American who is suspected as the driver of a bomb-laden SUV into New York's Time Square on May 1. (REUTERS/Courtesy of Orkut.com)

For the second time since Christmas, the federal government has failed to prevent a terrorist attack against the United States. Only terrorist bomb making incompetence has saved the lives of an unknown number of Americans. Hopefully, US agencies with the responsibility to protect its citizens will correct their incompetence before terrorists fix their own.

Here is the latest update on the massacre that could have occurred in New York.

Times Square bomb suspect Faisal Shahzad said to implicate himself; probe expands to Pakistan
The suspect in a failed attempt to detonate a car bomb in Times Square admitted his role in the plot and told investigators he had received training in bomb-making in his native Pakistan, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

30-year-old Pakistani American Charged with Terrorism in Failed NY Bombing
U.S. authorities have charged a Pakistani-born U.S. citizen with terrorism related charges in connection to the failed Times Square bombing. Thirty-year-old Faisal Shahzad was charged Tuesday in a five-count complaint, one day after he was arrested while trying to leave New York on a flight for Dubai. Authorities say he has admitted to receiving explosives training in Pakistan.

Times Square suspect had explosives training, documents say
A suspect in the failed Times Square car bombing told law enforcement officials that he recently received bomb-making training in Pakistan, court documents filed Tuesday show.

U.S. Said to Learn Shahzad on Plane 30 Minutes Before Departure
Shahzad was placed on a no-fly list yesterday afternoon. The airline didn’t update its list before allowing Shahzad on the plane, according to the person, who couldn’t be identified because the matter is still under investigation. U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents learned Shahzad was on the plane when the airline presented a mandatory passenger manifest to U.S. officials just before take off, the person said.

Faisal Shahzad: Who is the Times Square terror suspect?
The 30-year-old Pakistani-American at the center of the botched Times Square car bomb plot was known in his neighborhood as a mysterious loner who kept odd hours and "always looked on edge," neighbors said Tuesday.

Inside Terror Training Camp Tied to Bomb Suspect
CBS News correspondent Mandy Clark reports Pakistani police have arrested at least two people in Karachi, Pakistan. One of them, Tauseef Ahmed, is believed to have traveled to the U.S. two months ago to meet with Faisal Shahzad. CBS News has also learned that Shahzad may have spent at least four months training at a terrorist camp - raided in early March by Pakistani forces. The camp is affiliated with Pakistan's Taliban, the group that claimed responsibility for the botched attack in Times Square. Its leader Hakimullah Mehsud threatened, "The time is very near when our fighters ....will attack the American states."

Times Square Car Bomb?

2010-05-02T08:44:00.000-07:00

The scene at the corner of W 45th St. and Broadway in the heart of Times Square, where a car was found last night, that contained cans of flammable liquid and other explosive devices. (NY Daily News)

‘Very Lucky,’ Mayor Says, After Bomb
A crude car bomb of propane, gasoline and fireworks was discovered in a smoking Nissan Pathfinder in the heart of Times Square on Saturday evening, prompting the evacuation of thousands of tourists and theatergoers on a warm and busy night. Although the device had apparently started to detonate, there was no explosion, and early on Sunday the authorities were still seeking a suspect and motive.

Mayor: New York 'Lucky' Car Bomb Did Not Explode
Authorities in New York City are viewing security camera footage and examining other evidence to determine who may have tried to set off a car bomb in the Times Square entertainment district.

Time Square car bomb: Cops evacuate heart of NYC after 'potential terrorist attack'
Three heroic cops and a quick-thinking street vendor stopped a madman from detonating a car bomb in the heart of Times Square Saturday night, law enforcement officials told the Daily News.

'Very Lucky': Cops Comb Foiled Times Sq. Bomb Clues
A t-shirt vendor, a Vietnam veteran, saw something suspicious in New York's Times Square Saturday evening -- smoke coming from an unoccupied SUV -- so he alerted police. The tip led police to find the Nissan Pathfinder contained what New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to called an "amateurish"-looking bomb and what Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano told ABC News' "This Week" might have been part of a "one-off" attack.

Echoes of 2007 London attack in Times Square car bomb
An illegally parked car packed with propane gas cylinders and cannisters filled with petrol attached to a crude homemade detonator. That was Times Square, New York, last night. It was Haymarket, London, three years ago.

Napolitano: NYC car bomb is 'a potential terrorist attack'
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano took to the Sunday talk shows this morning, ostensibly to talk about efforts to protect the Gulf Coast from a potential ecological disaster due to a massive oil slick headed for land. However, Napolitano instead found herself talking about the apparent failed car bombing Saturday night in New York's Times Square.

Times Square Bomb Scare: 'Very Deadly' Blast Averted

May 2nd Morning Readbook

2010-05-02T05:50:00.000-07:00

Inside Iraq - Resurgent violence

Violence is back with a vengeance in Iraq - explosions in Baghdad have become common again and secret torture chambers are fuelling the cycle of hatred. But is the current political stalemate responsible?

The ‘Wanted Dead’ Option in the War on Terror
You can hardly blame Iraq’s beleaguered prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, for trumpeting the killing of the two leaders of Al Qaeda in Iraq last month as a lethal blow to the local terrorist franchise.

Turmoil in Iraq threatens US withdrawal plans
Iraq continues to be embroiled in its messy post-election coalition-building process. It has become so messy that the US may well be rethinking its withdrawal plans, and particularly its withdrawal of all combat troops at the end of August.

Petraeus: Tough times ahead for south Afghanistan
Tough times are ahead for Kandahar in southern Afghanistan where thousands of U.S., NATO and Afghan forces are gearing up for the latest offensive of the war, a top U.S. general said in an unannounced visit there Friday.

US Army captain becomes king in Afghanistan
In the U.S. Army, Casey Thoreen is just a 30-year-old captain. Around here, he's known as the "King of Maiwand" district — testimony to the fact that without the young captain and a fat international wallet, local government here as in much of the insurgency-ravaged south could not function at all.

U.S. drone attacks in Pakistan get mixed response
The aircraft target Al Qaeda and the Taliban and minimize civilian deaths, U.S. officials say. Many Pakistanis decry them as indiscriminate; others approve, even some who have lost relatives.

Two Charged With Supporting Al Qaeda
Two former Brooklyn residents have been indicted on charges that they conspired to provide al Qaeda with material support, including computer advice. Wesam El-Hanafi, 33 years old, and Sabirhan Hasanoff, 34, were charged in a one-count indictment unsealed Friday with conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization.

New York City Police Discover Car Bomb in Times Square
New York City authorities say they found a potentially powerful bomb in a vehicle in Times Square late Saturday. Swift action by police and city residents averted what could have been a deadly car bombing attack.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Comparison of Iraq's 2005 & 2010 Elections

2010-05-01T18:06:00.000-07:00

Voter Turnout

2005     79.6%
2010     62.4%

Shiite-Dominated Parties

2005 Total                  5,021,137

United Iraqi Alliance         5,021,137

2010 Total           4,884,149

State of Law Coalition    2,792,083
National Iraqi Alliance       2,092,066

Change                               -136,988 or -2.7%

Kurd-Dominated Parties

2005 Total                           2,799,860

Democratic Patriotic
Alliance of Kurdistan         2,642,172
Kurdistan Islamic Union    157,688

2010    Total                           2,554,442

Kurdistan Alliance              1,681,714
Gorran                                      476,478
Kurdistan Islamic Union    243,720
Islamic Group of Kurdistan     152,530

Change                                   -245,418 or 8.7% decrease

Sunni-Dominated Parties

2005 Total                                 3,317,504

Iraqi Accord Front        1,840,216
Iraqi National List        977,325
Iraqi National Dialogue Front    499,963

2010 Total                 3,454,485

Al-Iraqiya              2,849,612
Unity Alliance of Iraq        306,647
Iraqi Accord Front     298,226

Change             +136,981 or 4.1% increase

Non-Fictional Baathists Attempting Comeback

2010-04-29T16:09:00.000-07:00

Members of Syria-based Iraqi factions attend the Baath Party's first public meeting in Damascus, dedicated to "the national Iraqi resistance." (AFP/Louai Beshara)

It is hard to determine who will make a greater come-from-behind, the Taliban or the Baath Party. Saddam's outlawed cadre has been used as a political straw man by the Shiite-dominated and Iranian-allied democratic Iraqi government since 2009. Recently, the Baath held their first public meeting in Damascus calling for a reunification of the party. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki blamed the Al Qaeda in Iraq bombing campaign in Baghdad on the Baath in Syria, a claim the Baathists denied. Maliki's accusations deteriorated relations with Syria. It will be interesting to see Maliki's reaction to this Baathist convention in Syria as he continues his attempt to steal the parliamentary election.

Saddam's loyalists in Syria blast US
Supporters of Iraq's late dictator Saddam Hussein gathered in Damascus Thursday to denounce the U.S. "occupation" of Iraq and demand that his loyalists unite. About 500 Saddam loyalists, including members of his outlawed Baath Party, vowed to continue their support to what they called "Iraqi national resistance," a term they widely use to describe Iraqi insurgents attacking only U.S. forces.

Iraq's banned Baath holds first public meeting in Syria
Iraq's banned Baath party, booted out of power in the 2003 US-led invasion, held its first public meeting in the Syrian capital on Thursday. "We have launched negotiations to reunite the party," Ghazwan Qubaissi, the number two in a wing led by Mohammed Yunes al-Ahmad, a former governor of Mosul under now executed dictator and Baath chief Saddam Hussein, told AFP.

Iraq 2003 Flashback: The Iraqi Tribes

2010-04-29T15:47:00.000-07:00

Although many would like to take credit for the alleged success of the Iraq COIN campaign, a simple Google search reveals some of the earliest advocates for a tribal engagement strategy. The following is an excerpt from an 8 July 2003 Brookings Institution article:

How can the coalition and the new Iraqi government best rein in tribal power? There is no alternative to military action in cases of hard-core resistance, such as Fallujah. Yet it should be possible to control most local tribal challenges as the old regime usually did, simply by effective policing and nonviolent displays of force (although the regime also employed extreme violence to put down political opposition). Nevertheless, the most potent vehicle for central government control is the distribution of government services and other benefits. The Iraqi countryside desperately needs new infrastructure, as well as many basic services and goods, such as purified water, treated sewage, roads, electricity, schools, hospitals, agricultural machinery, fertilizers, irrigation systems, and even high-quality seeds. Within a few months the central government in Baghdad, whether it is still largely run by the coalition forces or by Iraqis, should be able to provide all this and more—even to the most remote villages. At that point, tribal shaykhs will have to work with the government or risk being overthrown by their own people.

As we constantly state on this blog, if you understand the culture the strategy writes itself. You can read the full article, "The Iraqi Tribes and the Post-Saddam System" here.

COIN vs. A Culture of Kid Rape

2010-04-24T09:43:00.000-07:00

Anyone believing that a "clear, hold, build" strategy is the key to a new democratic Afghanistan needs to watch this Frontline special on bacha bazi in Afghanistan.

Just for clarification, the ISAF mission is far more realistic than some of the expectations from civilian COINdinistas.

From ISAF's page:

ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conducts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate improvements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environment for sustainable stability that is observable to the population.

I have no idea what that actually means but it is ambiguous enough that anything shy of a civil war can be defined as mission success.

Here is the full episode documenting the starting point in the uphill battle for social reform in Afghanistan.

Return of the Mahdi Army

2010-04-24T08:26:00.000-07:00

Graphic courtesy of globalsecurity.org

If we look at the bell curve chart of violence in Iraq, we notice that the steep rise began when the Mahdi Army initiated a genocidal campaign with the support of Iraqi forces against the Sunnis. This occurred during the goverment formation period in 2006. We also notice the steep drop in violence just after Muqtada al Sadr ordered the Mahdi Army to stand down.

Due to the actions of a "defeated" and "decapitated" Al Qaeda in Iraq, Muqtada al Sadr has called for the return of the Mahdi Army.

Iraqi Cleric Calls on Followers to Defend Against Attacks
An influential Shi'ite cleric in Iraq is urging followers to defend Shi'ite communities after a series of blasts killed at least 69 people throughout Iraq Friday.

The most deadly attacks targeted Shi'ite neighborhoods and mosques in Baghdad's Sadr city, where a movement led by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is based.

Sadr released a statement late Friday calling on his followers to form brigades within the police force and army to defend their places of worship, homes and communities. Sadr said they must not rely on U.S. forces in Iraq to defend themselves.

Anti-U.S. cleric offers Iraq government help after attacks
Anti-U.S. Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr offered to help the Iraqi government maintain security after bomb attacks against Shi'ites killed 56 people in Baghdad in an apparent backlash by Sunni insurgents.

Sadr's offer of the use of his paramilitary Mehdi Army late Friday was made at a sensitive time for Iraq following a March election that produced no clear winner and left a power vacuum for insurgents to exploit.

Iraq govt says Sadr security help not needed
The Iraqi government said on Saturday that an offer by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to help boost security at strategic sites was unnecessary, in the wake of anti-Shiite attacks in Baghdad.

A Week in Iraq

2010-04-23T17:49:00.000-07:00

Al-Qaeda "targets Baghdad homes"

Former Iraqi prisoners allege abuse

Multiple bombings kill many in Iraq

April 20th Morning Readbook (Iraq Edition)

2010-04-20T05:26:00.000-07:00

A paper displays photographs of a man the Iraqi government claims to be al-Qaida leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi at a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, April 19, 2010. (Xinhua/AFP Photo)

Two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq are killed in raid
The two top leaders of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq were slain in a U.S. airstrike over the weekend, a decisive tactical victory for American and Iraqi forces and one that provides Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with additional political leverage at a crucial time.

Iraq announces killing of another senior al-Qaida leader
Iraq announced Tuesday the killing of another senior leader of al-Qaida group in the country, an official television reported. "Iraqi security forces killed the terrorist Ahmed al-Obaidi, also known as Abu Suhaib, the military leader for Qaida terrorist organization in the provinces of Nineveh, Kirkuk and Salahudin," the state-run television of Iraqia, quoted Mohammed al-Askari media advisor of the Iraqi Defence Ministry as saying.

Secret prison revealed in Baghdad
Hundreds of Sunni men disappeared for months into a secret Baghdad prison under the jurisdiction of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's military office, where many were routinely tortured until the country's Human Rights Ministry gained access to the facility, Iraqi officials say.

Iraq judicial panel orders recount
An Iraqi judicial panel on Monday ordered a manual recount of about 2.5 million ballots cast in Baghdad in last month's national elections, an action requested by Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's alliance, which had filed allegations of vote fraud.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

AQI Leadership Killed & Manual Recount

2010-04-19T17:19:00.000-07:00

In a shocking display of alleged competency, Iraqi security forces killed the top two leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq according to United States Forces - Iraq. General Odierno stated “the death of these terrorists is potentially the most significant blow to al-Qaeda in Iraq since the beginning of the insurgency,” which I would have to disagree. I think that whole Awakening / Sons of Iraq movement which was part of "the Surge" had a greater impact.

Notice the photos Maliki held up as "proof" the two al Qaeda leaders were killed. My understanding was that Iraqis spoke Arabic.

Meanwhile, as U.S. Forces were high-fiving each other over the successful Iraqi forces mission, Prime Minister Maliki continued his campaign to legally steal the Iraqi election as an Iraqi court ordered a manual recount of the ballots in Baghdad.

Bacha Bazi on PBS

2010-04-17T07:12:00.001-07:00

I encourage anyone still holding the belief that modern U.S. COIN doctrine can create a self-sustaining Jeffersonian democracy in Afghanistan to google the term in the title. PBS Frontline will air an episode covering bacha bazi on April 20th. Here is a short clip.

April 17th Morning Readbook

2010-04-17T07:02:00.000-07:00

Iraq: A satellite of Iran?

Iran maintains that its positive influence in Iraq is mistaken as interference but when Iraqi politicians met in Tehran to discuss the formation of a new government, Iran's power was unmistakeable. Inside Iraq discusses Iran's influence in Iraq.

Iraq PM: Sunni-backed bloc must be in govt
Iraq's Shiite prime minister said Friday the Sunni-backed political coalition that is headed by his archrival and won the most seats in last month's parliamentary election must be included in the country's new government.

Suicide bombers kill 30 in Pakistan
Two suicide bombers attacked a refugee camp in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 30 people and injuring more than 70 in what appeared to be retaliation for the military's latest offensive against Taliban insurgents in the volatile tribal areas' Orakzai region.

Pakistan: Deadly Attack at Hospital
A suicide bomber attacked a hospital emergency room filled with Shiite mourners on Friday in Quetta, killing eight people, including a journalist and two police officers. Journalists were at the hospital covering the aftermath of the shooting of a prominent Shiite bank manager, who was attacked earlier in the day. The emergency room was full of his friends and relatives when the bomber struck, the police said, in what they called a sectarian attack.

Taliban targets U.S. contractors working on projects in Afghanistan
The Taliban has begun regularly targeting U.S. government contractors in southern Afghanistan, stepping up use of a tactic that is rattling participating firms and could undermine development projects intended to stem the insurgency, according to U.S. officials.

Osama bin Laden's Facebook account disabled
Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's profile on social networking website Facebook has been shut down, after a security expert raised the issue with the website's U.S. owners.

A Kyrgyz interim leader says US base unjustified
A top official in Kyrgyzstan's interim government told The Associated Press on Saturday that a U.S. air base supporting operations in Afghanistan is "not justified," the first sign of significant divisions over the facility.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

April 12th Morning Readbook

2010-04-12T04:49:00.000-07:00

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (R) talks with Iraq's President Jalal Talabani (L) at Royal Palace in Riyadh April 11, 2010. REUTERS

Iraq says Saudi backs unity government
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on a visit to Saudi Arabia on Sunday said King Abdullah expressed his wish for a government comprising all Iraq's politicians after an indecisive March 7 general election.

Allawi's secularism may not fly in today's Iraq
In a nation where religion and politics have become nearly inseparable, can a secular politician be prime minister of Iraq? The question has moved to the heart of Iraq's complex politics after a coalition led by secular Shiite Ayad Allawi emerged as the biggest vote winner in last month's elections, winning 91 of the legislature's 325 seats, edging out a bloc led by the incumbent, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, by only two seats.

Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, threatens to block Nato offensive
The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has cast doubt over Nato’s planned summer offensive against the Taliban in the southern province of Kandahar, as more than 10,000 American troops pour in for the fight.

Afghan Officials: NATO Troops Kill 4 on Bus
Afghan officials say NATO troops opened fire on a bus in southern Afghanistan Monday, killing at least four people and wounding 18 others.

Pakistan: 41 militants, 2 soldiers die in fighting
More than 100 militants armed with rockets and automatic weapons attacked two security checkpoints in northwestern Pakistan on Monday, sparking intense fighting that left at least 41 insurgents and two soldiers dead, officials said.

Zazi, Al Qaeda pals planned rush-hour attack on Grand Central, Times Square subway stations
Chilling new details about the foiled Al Qaeda plot to blow up the city's busiest subways have emerged as a fourth suspect was quietly arrested in Pakistan, the Daily News has learned.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

April 11th Morning Readbook

2010-04-11T07:04:00.000-07:00

Roots of Kyrgyz uprising persist

Karzai tours with McChrystal after U.S. feud
Afghan President Hamid Karzai called on Taliban "brothers" to lay down their arms, as he appeared with NATO's commander in a show of solidarity aimed at putting a quarrel with the West behind him.

Airstrikes kill 10 militants in NW Pakistan
Fighter jets pounded militant hide-outs in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday, killing 10 suspected insurgents as part of a military operation that has eliminated more than 300 fighters in the last three weeks, an official said.

Iraq PM's bloc says fraud may have cost it 750,000 votes
The coalition of Iraq's incumbent prime minister, which came second in inconclusive March elections, said Sunday up to 750,000 votes had been tainted by fraud and it was seeking a recount in five provinces.

Yemen not going after radical US-born cleric
Yemeni forces are not going after a radical U.S.-born cleric who has reportedly been added to the CIA's list of targets to be killed or captured, the foreign minister said Saturday. The United States has not handed over evidence to support allegations that Anwar al-Awlaki is recruiting for al-Qaida's offshoot in the impoverished country on the southern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, the minister said.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

April 10th Morning Readbook

2010-04-10T06:07:00.000-07:00

Frost over the World - Iyad Allawi: Part two

Iyad Allawi: If Maliki tries to form a government in Iraq, chaos will ensue
In an interview this week with Ned Parker of the Los Angeles Times, former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqiya alliance edged out Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s party in national elections last month, warned of potential chaos if he is denied the right to form the country’s next government.

Abu Ghraib MP unit to return to Iraq
The Army Reserve unit tarnished by the Abu Ghraib detainee-abuse scandal has been mobilized to return to Iraq in its first deployment since photographs of naked, humiliated prisoners surfaced more than six years ago, the Army said Friday.

U.S. halts troop flights from Kyrgyz base
The fate of the Manas base, a central cog in the U.S.-led war effort in Afghanistan, has been thrown into question since the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's government.

Taliban kidnap gang chief released early
A Taliban commander who was jailed for kidnapping foreigners in Kabul was released early, the BBC has learnt.

Afghan officials say Pakistan's arrest of Taliban leader threatens peace talks
Senior Afghan officials are now criticizing as counterproductive the arrest in Pakistan this year of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the No. 2 Taliban official. Its main effect, the Afghan officials say, has been to derail Afghan-led efforts to secure peace talks with the Taliban, making that peace ever more remote.

Pakistan jet fighters kill 42 Islamist militants
Pakistani jet fighters bombed a meeting of an Islamist group blamed for attacking NATO supply convoys in a northern tribal area bordering Afghanistan, killing at least 42 militants.

Al-Qaeda threats to attack during England World Cup match against USA
Al-Qaeda has threatened to kill hundreds of football fans in a bloody attack during England's highprofile opening World Cup game against the USA.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

April 9th Morning Readbook

2010-04-09T04:22:00.001-07:00

PTSD - The war within

Al-Qaeda in Iraq group claims embassy bombings
A militant group linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq has said it was behind Sunday's triple bombings in Baghdad which killed 40 people near foreign embassies.

Let me go home: US prisoner Private Bowe Bergdahl's plea in video from Taliban
Private Bowe Bergdahl, 23, the only US soldier currently held in Afghanistan, was seized last June - and his captors say they will only free him in a prisoner exchange.

Troops kill 15 militants in NW Pakistan: officials
Pakistani troops killed at least 15 militants in a gunfight after an attack on a checkpoint in a restive tribal area bordering Afghanistan, officials said Friday. The clash took place in Bezot Khel village in Orakzai tribal district overnight, where troops are hunting Taliban insurgents.

Iran minister: US hikers 'had intelligence links'
Iran's intelligence minister has said there is evidence that three US hikers it is holding had links to intelligence agencies, according to Iran's Press TV.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

The Surge Debate

2010-04-07T22:22:00.000-07:00

For whatever reason there is a debate over whether or not the Surge succeeded. Zen Pundit has probably the best coverage while Abu Muqawama is the one that picked the fight with the blogosphere. I will let Tom Ricks start this one off.

Now let expand on one of the very important points he brings up in the beginning. The new strategy for Iraq was announce by then-President Bush. Before the US press started calling it "the surge" it was known as "The New Way Forward in Iraq."

The President's New Iraq Strategy Is Rooted In Six Fundamental Elements:

   1. Let the Iraqis lead;
   2. Help Iraqis protect the population;
   3. Isolate extremists;
   4. Create space for political progress;
   5. Diversify political and economic efforts; and
   6. Situate the strategy in a regional approach.

Number 4 is the specific one mentioned by Ricks. But the "New Way Forward" is not the only officially stated means to measure success.

On May 25, 2007, H.R. 2206 the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007 became Public Law No: 110-28. This was better known for having the "18 Benchmarks for Success in Iraq."

   1. Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review.

   2. Enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification.

   3. Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources of the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner.

   4. Enacting and implementing legislation on procedures to form semi-autonomous regions.

   5. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing an Independent High Electoral Commission, provincial elections law, provincial council authorities, and a date for provincial elections.

   6. Enacting and implementing legislation addressing amnesty.

   7. Enacting and implementing legislation establishing a strong militia disarmament program to ensure that such security forces are accountable only to the central government and loyal to the Constitution of Iraq.

   8. Establishing supporting political, media, economic, and services committees in support of the Baghdad security plan.

   9. Providing three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations.

10. Providing Iraqi commanders with all authorities to execute this plan and to make tactical and operational decisions, in consultation with U.S. commanders, without political intervention, to include the authority to pursue all extremists, including Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias.

11. Ensuring that the Iraqi security forces are providing even-handed enforcement of the law.

12. Ensuring that, according to President Bush, Prime Minister Maliki said “the Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation.”

13. Reducing the level of sectarian violence in Iraq and eliminating militia control of local security.

14. Establishing all of the planned joint security stations in neighborhoods across Baghdad.

15. Increasing the number of Iraqi security forces’ units capable of operating independently.

16. Ensuring that the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature are protected.

17. Allocating and spending $10 billion in Iraqi revenues for reconstruction projects, including delivery of essential services, on an equitable basis.

18. Ensuring that Iraq’s political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi security forces.

Now that we have the official "metrics" from the then-President and the official means of measuring success that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, the debate can continue.

My personal assessment is that the war is still going on. We simply cannot say whether it was a success yet. If there is any question to answer it would be this one.

Have any troops been authorized weekend leave in Baghdad? Saigon was safe enough for R&R.

Baghdad Bombings Continue

2010-04-06T03:45:00.000-07:00

Rescuers search for survivors at the scene of a bomb attack in central Baghdad, Iraq, Tuesday, April 6, 2010. Massive explosions hit apartment buildings across Baghdad killing at least 34 and wounding more than 100 in the latest sign that Iraq's fragile security could dissolve in the chaos of the country's unresolved election. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)

Baghdad Explosions Kill 28
Iraqi officials say several explosions have rocked central Baghdad, killing at least 28 people and wounding more than 75 others. The multiple bombings destroyed several apartment buildings and a restaurant in the Allawi district Tuesday. Media reports say people are trapped under the rubble.

Explosions hit Baghdad apartments, 34 dead
Massive bombs hit apartment buildings across Baghdad on Tuesday, killing at least 34 people and wounding more than 100 in the latest sign that Iraq's fragile security could dissolve in the chaos of the country's unresolved election.

6 explosions in Baghdad kill at least 28, wound 98
"The latest reports said that a total of 28 people were killed and 98 others injured by the massive blasts in Baghdad this morning," the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity. He said six explosions hit the Iraqi capital in the morning. The first blast started at about 8:45 a.m.(0545 GMT) in the Chikok area in Baghdad northern neighborhood of Kadhmiya, causing the collapse of two residential buildings, the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.

About 10 minutes later, another massive blast destroyed a third building in the Shula neighborhood in northwestern Baghdad, the source said, adding that another powerful explosion occurred in a fourth building in the southwestern Shurta al-Rabia neighborhood. A fifth explosion rocked the Hifa street in central Baghdad, the source said without giving further details about the incident, but said the bast was apparently carried out by a suicide bomber. The sixth explosion took place in the al-Amil neighborhood in southern Baghdad, the source said without giving further details.

'Tough negotiations ahead' for Iraq

Embassies and Executions

2010-04-05T13:41:00.000-07:00

Joao Silva for The New York Times

It was a tragic weekend for Iraq. From the COIN/CT perspective, I thought it would be interesting to study the strategic impact of the two most recent events. Most important to notice will be the Baath connection. Explanation at the bottom.

The Executions

Gunmen in military garb kill at least 24 in Sunni area south of Baghdad

Sunni Arabs who worked with the Americans as Sons of Iraq say they feel particularly vulnerable. "The Awakening people now are the easy targets for everyone," said Qais al-Jubouri, a tribal leader who worked with the U.S. military and the Iraqi military and government to forge reconciliation in his area of southern Baghdad. Jubouri, who won a seat in the next parliament, has been on the run since the issuance of an arrest warrant against him that he deemed politically motivated.

"The government targets us, and al-Qaeda targets us," he said. "The Americans are done with us, and they threw us under the bus. They lured us as friends, one by one."

25 Members of Sunni Family Killed Near Baghdad

Most of the 19 male victims were members of Iraqi security forces or of Awakening Councils, groups that now partner with American forces and are employed by the Iraqi government to protect Sunni neighborhoods, but whose members had once been allied with Sunni extremist groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia during fighting against American troops.

Iraqi village killers 'posed as US soldiers'

Five women were among the 25 killed, all linked to the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, known as the "Sons of Iraq" by the US army, which joined American and Iraqi forces in 2006 and 2007 to fight against Al-Qaeda and its supporters, leading to a dramatic fall in violence across the country.

The victims were all tied up and shot either in the head or in the chest. Seven other civilians discovered handcuffed in the village were freed.

Killings in Iraq raise fears of renewed sectarian violence

The elections last month polarized the country, with Shiite Prime Minister Nouri Maliki refusing to accept that an alliance led by rival Iyad Allawi, favored by Sunnis, had won more parliamentary seats than his bloc had. Some Iraqi security officers, U.S. military personnel and Western officials are expressing concern that Al Qaeda in Iraq could reestablish itself on Baghdad's rural perimeter and cause havoc before the next government is formed.

The attack Friday appeared to be aimed at intimidating the Sunni population. Residents of Hawr Rajab said the attackers, wearing American-style military uniforms, arrived in the afternoon. They seized an abandoned home, and one of the men, pretending to be an interpreter, told villagers in a mix of English and Arabic that the "American soldiers" were on a mission.

The Embassies

Deadly Bombs in Baghdad Point to Divisions

At least 58 people were killed in a three-day period, according to security sources and Iraqi media, including at least 30 people Sunday morning when three car bombs detonated in the capital near Iranian, Egyptian and German embassy buildings; three people in a separate car bombing in the restive northern city of Mosul; and 25 villagers who had been tied up and executed in a shadowy, early morning attack Saturday on a Sunni village on the southern outskirts of Baghdad.

Baghdad alert after embassy blasts

Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, told the AFP news agency that the incident resembled previous attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq, but it was too soon to be certain as investigations were ongoing.

"They bear the same marks of previous attacks, in the timing, the targeting, the simultaneous attacks on different targets in different places to have maximum impact," he said.

Baghdad hit by triple blasts

The Baath Connection

Any potential gains from the recent election are slowly slipping away. One of the Sons of Iraq leaders who entered politics and won a seat in the new Iraqi government is now a fugitive running from the government he fought for against al Qaeda in Iraq. The Iraqi government also accused al Qaeda in Iraq and the Baath as being responsible for the embassy bombings. Currently Ali Faisal al Lami is attempting to disqualify members of Ayad Allawi's coalition through de-baathification. The shadow of Saddam's political apparatus casts a dark shadow on Iraq today. It is still too early to definitively state that a civil war will break out. I fear that a few more instances of political exclusion of the Sunnis, terrorist attacks against the government, and indiscriminate government security operations will bring Iraq to the brink yet again.

Inside Story - Iraq's fledling democracy

2010-03-31T21:39:00.001-07:00

Allawi Did Not Win

2010-03-30T16:04:00.000-07:00

(AP Photo/Karim Kadim)

In spite of what many headlines have said, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi did not win the recent election. More importantly, a recent Federal Supreme Court decision stating that political coalitions can be formed AFTER the election has in essence negated the results. Prior to this decision Iyad Allawi's secular Iraqiyah coalition would have formed the new Iraqi government.

Below are some highlights as to what is really occurring in Iraq's post-election period.

Allawi Accuses Tehran of Meddling in Iraqi Politics

Ayad Allawi, leader of the bloc that won the most seats in Iraq's parliamentary election, lashed out at Iran on Tuesday, accusing Tehran of interfering in the battle to form a new government in Baghdad.

Mr. Allawi's cross-sectarian political bloc secured a narrow victory over Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-dominated slate in the March 7 vote, potentially upending the lock on power that the country's majority Shiites have had since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. But Mr. Allawi didn't win a majority of seats in the 325-member parliament, and is battling the incumbent to lock in enough coalition partners to form a stable government.

Representatives from Mr. Maliki's State of Law slate and from the two most influential parties inside a Shiite umbrella slate that finished third all recently visited Tehran at the same time. Iran has exerted significant political and economic power in Iraq since shortly after Mr. Hussein's ouster, when Shiite Iraqis rose to power.

Asharq Al-Awsat Talks to Iraqi VP Tariq al-Hashimi

Tariq al-Hashimi, the Iraqi vice president and prominent leader in Al-Iraqiya List led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi which won the legislative elections held on 7 March, has stated that Al-Iraqiya faced major challenges like "disqualification and Debathification" and also "the campaigns of distortion and tampering with the voters' will." He pointed out that his bloc was open to all the political forces to ally themselves with it but did not refer to an alliance with the State of Law Coalition [SLC] which is led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki who rejected the results of the elections. Al- Iraqiya List won 91 seats, two seats more than Al-Maliki's list.

Iraq election: Victorious candidates may be purged, boosting Maliki

Six winning candidates in Iraq elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats – which would cost secular politician Iyad Allawi's bloc its narrow victory – if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday.

Maliki is block in Iraq coalition merger talks

Maliki's State of Law (SOL) coalition is negotiating a possible union with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, to form the largest bloc in Iraq's next parliament. The Sadrists' strong election showing makes Sadr a potential kingmaker.

An alliance between the two major Shi'ite parties could push former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition, the top vote-getter in Iraq's March 7 election, to the sidelines. That could anger many Sunnis who voted for Allawi and deepen Iraq's sectarian divide.

Iran 'preventing’ Ayad Allawi from becoming Iraq’s prime minister

Tehran was interfering in the election process in Iraq, where his Iraqiya bloc won 91 seats in the 325-member Council of Representatives, two more than Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance, he told the BBC.

“Iran is interfering quite heavily and this is worrying,” Mr Allawi told the broadcaster, accusing the Islamic republic of inviting all the major parties to Tehran apart from his bloc.

“They have invited everybody – but they haven’t invited us – to Tehran,” he said.

Asked directly whether Iran wanted to stop him becoming prime minister, Mr Allawi responded: “I think so, they made it very clear ... that they have a red line.

“We are concerned about respecting the will of the Iraqi people.”

Iraqi commission moves to disqualify winning candidates

Six winning candidates in Iraq's parliamentary elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats — which would cost secular politician Ayad Allawi's bloc its narrow victory — if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday.

The President's Visit to Afghanistan

2010-03-29T18:45:00.000-07:00

No word on what the President was able to eat during his visit. The U.S. war on American corporate food franchises rages on in Afghanistan. Oh and al Qaeda and the Taliban are still out there too.

Admin Note

2010-03-28T16:43:00.000-07:00

(AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

Due to professional, academic, and personal commitments I will no longer post the Morning Readbook. For those that need an alternative I recommend the Small Wars Journal Roundup.

Below are the search terms and websites I would use to generate the morning readbook.

For Stories -

Google News

Search Terms - "Taliban" "Qaeda" "Afghanistan" "Pakistan" "Iraq" or any other country or topic grabbing headlines that week.

SAMPLE

Top story searching "taliban" -

India shifts Afghan policy, ready to talk to Taliban

For Photos -

Yahoo News World Photos

Search Terms - The country of choice generates the widest selection of photos. The exception would be anything related to CT in the United States. In that case I would search "homeland"

SAMPLE -

"Iraq"

Pictures of premier-elect Iyad Allawi (L) and outgoing premier Nuri al-Malaki are seen on the front page of an Iraqi newspaper in Baghdad on March 27. Maliki, whose bloc came second in Iraq's general election, sharply criticised the UN envoy to Baghdad on Sunday over his inaction on vote fraud allegations. (AFP/Ali al-Saadi)

Original can be found at this link.

For Video -

Al Jazeera English

I would embed the latest news bulletin at end the readbook.

SAMPLE

Also, I would search through any of their recent programs or segments to see if there was one of interest. There are many detailed stories that never make mainstream headlines but are very applicable to the current COIN/CT debates. Below is a perfect example.

Final Notes -

I plan on posting two more segments in the Basics of COIN series. The next one will deal with Chaotic and Complex scenarios.

As far as the current COIN/CT conflict are concerned, I am waiting to see if Maliki will actually step down from power and what the new Iraqi government will look like when it finally forms. Afghanistan is far too early to make a call without guessing.

More to follow...

March 23rd Morning Readbook

2010-03-23T02:50:00.000-07:00

Karzai in talks with Taliban allies

World Digest: Afghanistan's Karzai talks to representatives of insurgent faction
President Hamid Karzai held talks in Kabul on Monday with representatives of one of the key insurgent groups battling his government, as the president continues his high-stakes push for an eventual reconciliation among all of Afghanistan's warring factions.

Pakistan army chief begins US strategic dialogue
Pakistan's army chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani has met US defence leaders in Washington as the two countries begin a week-long strategic dialogue.

Pakistan asks court to let it reopen probe of nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan
The Pakistani government on Monday sought a court's permission in Lahore to reopen its probe into scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan and his role in nuclear weapons-related discussions and transactions with Iran and Iraq.

U.S. Officials Meet Iraqi Leader After Recount Call
The two top American officials in Iraq met Monday with Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki after his endorsement over the weekend of a recount in the parliamentary elections incited fears of a political crisis in a country not accustomed to peaceful transfers of power.

Iraq election front-runners court possible allies
With the complete results in Iraq's election just days away, there were signs Monday the two front runners were reaching out to other political parties, signaling the start of the jockeying to form the next ruling coalition.

U.S. judge orders release of Guantanamo detainee
A federal judge ordered on Monday that a man accused of having ties to some of the hijackers in the September 11, 2001, attacks, be released from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

Netanyahu disrupted at Aipac gala
Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has been disrupted in Washington DC by activists protesting against Israeli policy in the Middle East.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 22nd Morning Readbook

2010-03-21T18:33:00.000-07:00

An Iraqi soldier stands guard in front of a poster of former Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi in Baghdad. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's calls for a recount of votes from Iraq's polls were on Sunday rebuffed by its election commission, amid a tight race to form the biggest bloc in parliament. (AFP/Ali al-Saadi)

Prime minister warns of violence, but election board rejects call for recount
As new results from this month's election continued to show a neck-and-neck race, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday issued a strongly worded warning that without a nationwide recount, the country could descend into violence. The electoral commission quickly rejected the request, saying a recount would be neither necessary nor feasible.

Iraq’s Premier Endorses a Recount of the Vote
Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki endorsed the mounting calls for a recount of Iraq’s parliamentary election, as the latest results on Sunday showed his main competitor with a slight lead.

Drone strike kills eight in North Waziristan
A US drone aircraft fired two missiles into an al Qaeda and Taliban hideout in North Waziristan on Sunday, killing eight terrorists, Pakistani intelligence officials said.

Afghan bomb attacks kill at least 12 civilians
A suicide bomber killed 10 civilians on Sunday when he detonated his explosives near a crowd in southern Afghanistan, while a roadside bomb in the east killed two others, officials said.

Iran's supreme leader says U.S. fails to act on promise for better ties
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Sunday that the United States failed to act on its promise to establish better ties with the Islamic Republic, Iran's satellite channel Press TV reported.

Analysts say US-Israel Relationship Scarred by Settlements Dispute
Middle East analysts are expressing concern a disagreement between the United States and Israel over Jewish settlements in occupied East Jerusalem will leave scars in the relationship and may raise the risk of Israeli military strikes against Iran's nuclear program.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

"Israel...seen as the problem"

2010-03-21T15:54:00.000-07:00

The Anti-Defamation League, known for defending Israel's interests in the United States by raising antisemitism awareness, attacked General David Petraeus earlier this week. Out of all the statements to come out of Israel's attempt to bully the U.S., this action shocked me the most.

*NOTE- As with most counter-arguements devoid of any fact or intellectual merit, to avoid the "hate card" I will say up front that I am not antisemitic. I simply do not place the security of any nation before the security and welfare of my own.

You can read the full statement here.

Gen. Petraeus has simply erred in linking the challenges faced by the U.S. and coalition forces in the region to a solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and blaming extremist activities on the absence of peace and the perceived U.S. favoritism for Israel. This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive.

Whenever the Israeli-Arab conflict is made a focal point, Israel comes to be seen as the problem. If only Israel would stop settlements, if only Israel would talk with Hamas, if only Israel would make concessions on refugees, if only it would share Jerusalem, everything in the region would then fall into line.

This is propaganda in its purest form; truth twisted to advance a political agenda. There are only four sentences in which I quoted so I will address each individual one.

Gen. Petraeus has simply erred in linking the challenges faced by the U.S. and coalition forces in the region to a solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict, and blaming extremist activities on the absence of peace and the perceived U.S. favoritism for Israel.

I would like the ADL to identify an insurgent or terrorist group that does not link the challenges faced by the U.S. forces to perceived U.S.

This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive.

This linkage is dangerous and counterproductive for Israel. Unfortunately, it is rooted in more fact that this statement.

Whenever the Israeli-Arab conflict is made a focal point, Israel comes to be seen as the problem.

Suffocating a man in the hotel of a foreign country using a falsified passport of an individual belonging to a supposed "ally" will add to this perspective.

If only Israel would stop settlements, if only Israel would talk with Hamas, if only Israel would make concessions on refugees, if only it would share Jerusalem, everything in the region would then fall into line.

These are three requests being asked by nearly every nation in the world, all rejected by Israel.

In order to better understand our takfiri enemy, we need to understand the messages that resonate with a moderate audience. It it their solutions that are extreme, not always the perspectives. The last word goes to al Qaeda as they demonstrate on video how they manipulate American policies to remain a relevant opposition terrorist group.

March 21st Morning Readbook

2010-03-21T05:24:00.000-07:00

Iraqis voice hopes for the future

Iraq's Iyad Allawi urges swifter election result
Iyad Allawi, who headed the country from 2004 to 2005, told the BBC full results from the 7 March election should have been released days ago.

Iraq's Maliki asks for recount, warns of violence
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki called for a nationwide recount of votes from Iraq's March 7 parliamentary election, warning the country could return to violence if the demand was not met.

Brothers who filmed and performed al Qaeda-style military manoeuvres in local park convicted of terrorist offences
Two brothers who filmed themselves on al Qaeda-style military manoeuvres in their local park were convicted of terrorist offences yesterday.

Pakistani Taliban Kill 4, Calling Them US Spies
The bullet-riddled bodies of four Pakistani tribesmen, killed by the Taliban for allegedly spying for the United States, were found Sunday in a semiautonomous tribal region near the Afghan border, witnesses and officials said.

Marines offer cash in fight against Afghan opium
After weeks of intense fighting over the Taliban stronghold of Marjah, U.S. Marines are now taking cautious aim at the drugs trade, with a program designed to pay opium farmers to destroy their own crops without a fight.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 20th Morning Readbook

2010-03-20T08:27:00.000-07:00

Inside Story - Iraq's election results

Allawi back in Iraq vote-count lead
The latest results from Iraq's parliamentary election show the Iraqiya coalition, led by Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister, regaining a narrow lead.

Iraq: Key figures since the war began
-- U.S. TROOP LEVELS:

March 31, 2003: 90,000.

October 2007: 170,000 at peak of troop buildup.

March 1, 2010: Just over 96,000.

COALITION TROOP LEVELS:

Number of countries that participated in "Coalition for the Immediate Disarmament of Iraq" at the start of the war: 31, including the United States.

As of August 2009, all non-U.S. coalition members had withdrawn from Iraq.

Pakistan official: 3 Taliban militants arrested
Police arrested three Taliban militants Saturday and seized a bomb-making factory in the southern Pakistan city of Karachi, a counterterrorism official said.

Political Skills Assist Panetta as Spymaster
Intelligence reports landing on CIA Director Leon Panetta's desk last July made the alarming claim that the Pakistani Taliban could have a nuclear device.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 19th Morning Readbook

2010-03-19T03:53:00.000-07:00

CIA: Al Qaeda Leaders on the Run

Pakistan Tribes Plan Anti-Taliban Strategy at Biggest Gathering
Pakistan’s tribal leaders will discuss a strategy tomorrow to end support for militants, their biggest gathering since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and removed the Taliban from power.

Marjah wrested from the Taliban, but residents say militants remain potent force
In the capital of Afghanistan's Helmand province, Taliban roam the streets freely. Barely a mile (a kilometer) outside Lashkar Gah, they wield more control than the government, according to residents.

Al Maliki Coalition slightly ahead in Iraq
State of Law Coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki is slightly ahead of other coalitions, according to preliminary results of Iraqi Parliamentary elections.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 18th Morning Readbook

2010-03-18T03:15:00.000-07:00

Swat's displaced fret about handouts

Drone Strike Said to Kill a Leader of Al Qaeda
A strike by an unmanned drone last week killed a senior commander of Al Qaeda who had played a significant role in planning the killing of Central Intelligence Agency operatives in late December at a base in Afghanistan, according to American officials.

US operations 'already started' in Kandahar
Operations to push the Taliban out of their iconic Afghan stronghold of Kandahar are underway and will steadily build in the months ahead, military officials said Thursday.

Soaring IED attacks in Afghanistan stymie U.S. counteroffensive
Taliban fighters more than doubled the number of homemade bombs they used against U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan last year, relying on explosives that are often far more primitive than the ones used in Iraq.

Iraq's election adds to sectarian divide
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is relying on his Shiite Muslim religious identity to gain an edge over Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite whose loss would be a huge setback to Sunni Arab voters.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 17th Morning Readbook

2010-03-17T03:58:00.000-07:00

US moves to calm spat with Israel over settlements

Allawi edges ahead of al-Maliki in Iraq vote count
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's bloc has edged ahead of the coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq's parliamentary vote, election officials announced.

Followers of Sadr Emerge Stronger After Iraq Elections
The followers of Moktada al-Sadr, a radical cleric who led the Shiite insurgency against the American occupation, have emerged as Iraq’s equivalent of Lazarus in elections last week, defying ritual predictions of their demise and now threatening to realign the nation’s balance of power.

US missile strikes kill seven in Pakistan
US missile strikes killed at least seven militants in northwest Pakistan on Wednesday, as attackers armed with rockets and petrol bombs killed five policemen in a pre-dawn ambush.

Why the U.S. must talk to the Taliban
While the Obama administration is watching the battlefield in Afghanistan, hoping for a quick weakening of the Taliban, regional powers are ratcheting up tensions in and outside that country. Pakistan and Iran in particular want to ensure that by the time the United States is ready to talk to the Taliban, the region's future will already be shaped by local powers, limiting Washington's options. Afghanistan's ethnic and sectarian divisions are being exacerbated in the process.

Tehran aiding al Qaeda links, Petraeus says
Iran is assisting al Qaeda by facilitating links between senior terrorist leaders and affiliate groups, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East told Congress on Tuesday.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 16th Morning Readbook

2010-03-16T04:07:00.000-07:00

Iraqi PM pulls ahead of poll rivals

Iran praises Iraq election as Shi'ite ally leads
Iran congratulated Iraqis on Tuesday over an election that is likely to keep a bloc led by its Shi'ite ally, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in power after a campaign in which Tehran's influence was a divisive issue.

Iraq's Arab neighbors wary of Shi'ite sway after vote
Iraq's Arab neighbors fear a split Iraqi election could further marginalize minority Sunnis and hope any coalition government formed by the Shi'ite frontrunner will resist Iran's sway.

US drone attack kills Pakistanis
A suspected US drone attack in the restive northwest Pakistan has killed at least 11 people and wounded two others.

Karzai, Obama discuss prospects of Taliban talks
Afghan President Hamid Karzai discussed prospects of peace with the Taliban in a video phone conversation with President Barack Obama, Karzai's office said on Tuesday.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 15th Morning Readbook

2010-03-15T04:15:00.000-07:00

US-Israel ties at risk?

A week on, Maliki pulls ahead in Iraq race
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pulled ahead on Sunday in early results of an election Iraqis hoped would end years of sectarian strife, but a divided vote suggested long and fraught talks to form a government are ahead.

Iraq's Nouri al-Maliki already wooing allies to try to form governing coalition
Buoyed by preliminary results from last week's parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is courting allies in hopes of forming a new governing coalition that will allow him to keep his job.

Car bomb in Iraq's Falluja kills 7, wounds 20: police
A car bomb in Iraq's western Anbar province killed seven civilians and wounded 20 others on Monday, as Iraq struggles to end years of sectarian violence after a pivotal national vote.

A Tale of Two Taliban Reveals U.S. Afghan Dilemma
Abdullah Ghulam Rasoul and Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef were both held by the U.S. at Guantanamo. Both were senior Taliban commanders, and both say they were subjected to solitary confinement, sleep deprivation, countless interrogations and beatings. But when they were released back home in their native Afghanistan, the two men's paths diverged radically.

Pakistan intelligence calls for Afghan border to be closed
Pakistan's intelligence agency has demanded tighter control of the Afghan border by Nato troops to stop Taliban fighters escaping its operations in the North West Frontier.

Yemen air raid kills two Al-Qaeda leaders: official
A Yemeni air raid against a "terrorist cell" in the southeast of the country has killed two senior Al-Qaeda members, the defence ministry said early Monday.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

OIF Flashback 2008: The Awakening

2010-03-14T05:48:00.000-07:00

An excessive amount of high-fiving and backslapping followed the recent election in Iraq. Unfortunately the parliamentary election is a last minute hail mary pass not the closing chapter of a victorious campaign. In a previous post I was asked what the resistance fighters would do after American forces leave. The answer I gave was not my own, but that of the resistance. Here area two videos from 2008 so you can formulate your own opinion. Included is some great commentary from Bing West and Dr. Austin Long.

People & Power - Saddam's tribal strategy - 28 Oct 08 - Pt 1

People & Power - Saddam's tribal strategy - 28 Oct 08 - Pt 2

March 14th Morning Readbook

2010-03-14T05:27:00.000-07:00

Iraqis optimistic about future

Maliki has shaky lead in Iraq vote count
Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's alliance is ahead in Baghdad and four southern provinces, with a small portion of the vote counted. Official results of the parliamentary elections may take a month.

Kandahar blasts were warning to US and Nato - Taliban
Saturday's bomb attacks in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar were a warning to US and Nato forces, the Taliban say.

Blast kills Pakistani national in Afghanistan: police
A roadside bomb killed a Pakistani construction worker and wounded six of his compatriots on Sunday in Afghanistan's southern city of Kandahar, police said.

Taliban distancing themselves from Al Qaeda: experts
The blasts in Lahore are the last desperate measures of pro-Al Qaeda militants who are now being abandoned by the Taliban, diplomatic sources told Dawn.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 13th Morning Readbook

2010-03-13T08:09:00.000-08:00

Afghan Taliban 'eye expansion'

White House Weighs Talks With Taliban After Afghan Successes
With American troops pouring into insurgent strongholds in Afghanistan and the United States succeeding in killing insurgent leaders with drone attacks in Pakistan, the Obama administration is beginning to consider whether it has gained the upper hand sufficiently to justify an effort to begin talks with the Taliban.

Suicide attack kills 14 in NW Pakistan's Swat
The death toll in the suicide attack in northwest Pakistan's Swat has risen to 14, including two soldiers, two policemen and a child, police sources said Saturday.

Inside Iraq - Can Iraq move forward?

PM's group leads in early Iraq election results
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's alliance led partial preliminary election results Saturday in Baghdad, where the most parliamentary seats are up for grabs, according to the electoral commission.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 12th Morning Readbook

2010-03-12T03:49:00.000-08:00

UN sanctions on Iraq still in force

In Early Tally, Tight Iraq Race Deepens Splits
Iraq’s major coalitions were locked in a surprisingly close race on Thursday, in initial results from elections that deepened divisions across a fractured landscape. Candidates were quick to charge fraud, heightening concerns whether Iraq’s fledgling institutions were strong enough to support a peaceful transfer of power.

Iraq's election race tight as results delayed again
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had a modest lead over rival Shi'ites, partial results from Iraq's tight election race showed on Friday, but a secularist challenger remained far ahead among Iraqi Sunnis.

Yemen holds US 'al-Qaeda member'
Yemini authorities have arrested a US citizen suspected of being an al-Qaeda operative who allegedly killed a guard while trying to break out of a hospital.

Some U.S. officials see a growing Taliban-Al Qaeda rift
A growing number of Taliban militants in the Pakistani border region are refusing to collaborate with Al Qaeda fighters, declining to provide shelter or assist in attacks in Afghanistan even in return for payment, according to U.S. military and counter-terrorism officials.

Peace eludes Swat Valley

Suicide blasts in Pakistan's Lahore kill 39
Suicide bombers targeting the Pakistani military killed at least 39 people in the city of Lahore on Friday, officials said, despite government assertions that crackdowns had weakened Taliban insurgents.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 11th Morning Readbook

2010-03-11T03:18:00.000-08:00

Kabul pushes to destroy narcotics

We don't want proxy wars in Afghanistan, Karzai says
Afghanistan does not want a proxy war between Pakistan and India or anybody else fought on its soil, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Thursday during a visit to Pakistan.

Gates: Iran support for Taliban 'pretty limited'
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday that Iranian support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is "pretty limited" — so far. Gates noted that he had a public exchange of barbs with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week over which country is doing harm in Afghanistan. He had accused Tehran of undermining U.S. and NATO efforts by helping the Taliban.

Drone Strikes Kill 21 in Pakistan
Two drone strikes since Monday in North Waziristan have killed at least 21 people, possibly including a top local commander, said a Pakistan security official and residents of the area, a stronghold of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

No-Fly List Includes the Dead
The government’s no-fly list includes the names of dead suspects to help catch people who may try to assume the suspect’s identity, according to government officials who spoke with The Associated Press.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

OIF Flashback 2007: Sunni Resistance

2010-03-10T03:25:00.000-08:00

Iraq's resistance fighters - 23 Dec 07

Iraq's resistance fighters pt. 2: Weapons - 24 Dec 07

Iraqi resistance fighters pt. 3: Women fighters - 25 Dec 07

March 10th Morning Readbook

2010-03-10T03:15:00.000-08:00

Afghan fighters surrender in north

Afghanistan gets vows of friendship from U.S. and Iran
America's defense chief thanked Afghanistan's soldiers for their service during a tour of a training camp Wednesday as Iran's hardline president arrived in Kabul with a pledge to purge "occupying forces" from the troubled land.

5 Pakistani Aid Workers Killed in Attack
An attack which left five international aid workers dead in Pakistan on Wednesday "is directly linked to Taliban militants," a Pakistani intelligence official told CBS News' Farhan Bokhari after the incident, sharing an initial assessment of the investigation.

Iraq Postpones Announcing Initial Election Results
Iraq's election commission has postponed announcing initial results from Sunday's parliamentary election because it says it has not finished counting enough votes.

Doomsday in Iraq -- is it really just around the corner?
We've now been at war intermittently with Iraq for almost 20 years, and with Afghanistan for 30. It adds up to nearly half a century of experience, all bad.

It’s Up to Iraqis Now. Good Luck. By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Of all the pictures I saw from the Iraqi elections last weekend, my favorite was on nytimes.com: an Iraqi mother holding up her son to let him stuff her ballot into the box. I loved that picture. Being able to freely cast a ballot for the candidate of your choice is still unusual for Iraqis and for that entire region. That mother seemed to be saying: When I was a child, I never got to vote. I want to live in a world where my child will always be able to.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera English

March 9th Morning Readbook

2010-03-09T03:30:00.000-08:00

Is Iraq ready for democracy?

Candidates Speculate on Results of Iraq Vote
Even before the votes were tallied, Iraq’s candidates and coalitions began positioning themselves in an evolving political landscape on Monday. Some claimed victory, and a few conceded defeat in an election on Sunday that the top American officials here called a milestone that kept the withdrawal of American troops on pace.

Years before US can judge Iraq success: general
The top US general in Iraq said Monday it could be years before the United States can gauge whether its long military campaign there had achieved any measure of success. General Ray Odierno was speaking a day after millions of Iraqis defied deadly bomb, mortar and rocket attacks to vote in the first parliamentary elections since 2005, seen as a test of the war-shattered state's fragile democracy.

Zabul province seeks U.S. troops, but is caught in Afghan numbers game
To work in Zabul province these days is to feel forsaken. The Americans pulled a battalion out in December. The Afghan government promises help but sends little. Meanwhile, Taliban fighters continue to pour in.

Suicide car bomber strikes Pakistani counter-terrorism offices
A suicide car bombing at a building in Lahore that houses terrorism investigators killed at least 13 people and wounded 80 others Monday, the first terrorist strike this year to hit a major city in Pakistan's Punjab heartland.

Pakistan says U.S.-born suspect in custody is not Gadahn
Officials say the operative held in Karachi is not Al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn wanted on U.S. treason charges, but another man, from Pennsylvania. U.S. officials say they haven't heard of him.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 8th Morning Readbook

2010-03-08T03:50:00.000-08:00

Who will win Iraq's election?

Votes being counted in Iraq election
Counting is under way in Iraq's elections, with preliminary results expected in several days.

Iraq election head says turnout at 55-60 percent
The head of Iraq's election commission says turnout for Sunday's election was between 55 and 60 percent. Faraj al-Haidari, who heads the Independent High Electoral Commission, told The Associated Press that the exact figures would be released later Monday at a news conference.

Gates Visits Afghanistan to Meet With Karzai
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates arrived on an unannounced visit to Afghanistan on Monday morning to meet with President Hamid Karzai and NATO commanders, and to review plans for a major American-led offensive into the Taliban heartland of Kandahar.

Pakistani minister confirms death of three senior Taliban leaders
Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik confirmed on Saturday that three Tehreek-e-Taliban ( TTP) leaders were killed along with 30 other militants in the country's northwest. The Taliban leaders were killed as helicopter gunships targeted their hideouts in Mohmand Agency.

Pakistan intelligence try to establish identity of arrested American militant suspect
Intelligence officials say they are trying to establish the identity of an American militant suspect arrested in Pakistan, but believe the man is not Al-Qaida's U.S.-born spokesman as they originally reported.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Adam Gadahn Captured

2010-03-07T12:28:00.001-08:00

March 7th Morning Readbook

2010-03-07T04:52:00.000-08:00

Iraq election analysis

Iraq parliamentary election hit by insurgent attacks
Iraq's second parliamentary election since the 2003 invasion has been hit by multiple attacks, with at least 24 people being killed.

Blasts, Mortars Mar Voting in Iraq
At least 25 Iraqis died in dozens of attacks around the country Sunday morning as polling got underway in the country's first parliamentary election since 2005. Mortar attacks in the restive northern city of Mosul and its surroundings forced five polling stations to temporarily close there. By midday Sunday, it was still too early to gauge voter turnout, but officials appeared to be ramping up appeals to voters to go to the polls.

Kirkuk's Arabs seek to reclaim city

Pakistani Taliban Deputy Believed Killed
A senior Pakistani Taliban commander with close links to al Qaeda and the Afghani Taliban was “probably killed” in an attack by Pakistani army helicopter gunships in a remote region along the Afghan border Friday, a senior Pakistani security official told CBS NEWS on Saturday.

Taliban and Rival Militants Fight Each Other in Afghanistan
Afghan officials say clashes between rival Islamist militant groups in the country's northeast have killed at least 50 people.

Al-Qaida calls on US Muslims to attack America
Al-Qaida's American-born spokesman on Sunday called on Muslims serving in the U.S. armed forces to emulate the Army major charged with killing 13 people in Fort Hood.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

The Day Prior

2010-03-06T16:58:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow will be praised by the US as proof the Iraqis are in control of their country's destiny and US forces can leave as planned. The true situation will be determined, not tomorrow, but in the weeks and months ahead.

If you would like a one-stop shop for Iraqi election coverage, Al Jazeera has a special section dedicated to coverage of the 2010 Iraqi elections. You can find it here.

General Abadi: Iraqis 'will get their change'

Security tight for Anbar vote

Frost over the World - Saleh al-Mutlaq and Sigrun Davidsdottir

Iraqis living in Iran head to polls

Iraqis determined to vote

March 5th Morning Readbook

2010-03-05T04:31:00.000-08:00

Montage of Iraqi election commercials

Iraq expats vote as election enters final straight
Politicians launched into their last day of campaigning on Friday as more than a million Iraqis living abroad began voting in an election that could turn the page on years of deadly sectarian strife.

Iraq 'determined to regain dignity'
Since the occupation of Baghdad and the fall of the Baath regime in April 2003, the Iraqi people have gone to the polls almost once every year, on average. Among the countless running jokes in Iraq today is the one where an independent candidate pledges to save the country millions by keeping his current election posters plastered through the capital's streets – permanently.

Iraq's Kurds go the polls amid carnival atmosphere
Ahmed Hassan Rasul spent 10 years in the mountains of northern Iraq as a pershmerga guerilla, fighting for independence for Iraq's Kurds against the forces of Saddam Hussein.

Pakistan steps up anti-Taliban efforts
U.S. pressure on Pakistan to crack down on Taliban extremists within its borders is paying off, American officials and independent analysts say, paving the way for progress in the war in neighboring Afghanistan.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen outlines a more restrained art of war
Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, outlined a new U.S. approach to war in a series of speeches this week that replaces overwhelming firepower with more restrained use of force to safeguard civilian lives.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 4th Morning Readbook

2010-03-04T03:42:00.000-08:00

Iraq expats in Jordan ready to vote

U.S. failure to neutralize Shiite militia in Iraq threatens to snarl pullout
A failed effort by the United States to neutralize a powerful Shiite militant group in Iraq has left in place a dangerous force whose attacks on American troops threaten to complicate the U.S. drawdown, according to American and Iraqi officials. The group, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, kidnapped an American defense contractor last month, and U.S. officials say its members appear to be forming alliances with other Shiite militias to attack Baghdad's Green Zone and U.S. military bases with rockets.

Following Suicide Attacks, Early Voting Begins in Iraq
With security forces on a heightened state of alert before Sunday’s national elections, early voting began Thursday morning as hundreds of thousands of Iraqis began making their way to the polls, among them the infirm, people with special needs and members of the military and the police.

Early voting begins in Iraq

UN envoy says it's 'time to talk' to the Taliban
he head of the U.N. mission in Afghanistan said Thursday that it's "high time" a political solution is found with the Taliban to resolve the more than 8-year-old conflict. "It's time to talk," Kai Eide said. In his last news conference as the U.N. representative, Eide said he hoped a spring peace jirga — or conference — that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is organizing would result in a national consensus for peace that the entire nation could rally around.

Yemen arrests 11 Qaeda suspects
Yemeni security forces arrested 11 Al-Qaeda suspects in a residential area of the capital Sanaa, killing one man during the operation, the defence ministry's 26sep.net news website has reported. The man killed, who was the father of one of the suspects, opened fire on security forces, wounding one of them, before being shot dead, the website said.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 3rd Morning Readbook

2010-03-03T04:17:00.000-08:00

An Iraqi worker passes election posters in central Baghdad. Three powerful co-ordinated suicide attacks in the central Iraq city of Baquba killed at least 33 people and wounded 55, just days before nationwide parliamentary elections. (AFP/File/Sabah Arar)

Iraq suicide bomber targets hospital in triple attack
A suicide bomber ended a series of deadly attacks in central Iraq by detonating explosives in a hospital emergency ward where victims of two earlier blasts were being treated.

Q&A: Iraq's 2010 elections
On March 7, Iraq will hold national parliamentary elections in what is believed to be a critical stage in the country's political development since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Pakistan's army discovers intricate al-Qaeda cave complex used by militants
Pakistan's army has discovered an extensive network of caves used by the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The cave complex, in Damadola on the Afghan border, was used as a refuge by militants and even sheltered Ayman al-Zawahari, Osama bin-Laden's second-in-command.

Taliban, not drugs, focus of US-Afghan offensive
Even by Afghan standards, it was a startling find: An opium packaging workshop, buried under donkey dung and old hay in a stable that U.S. Marines turned into a patrol base in southern Afghanistan.

Afghanistan Aims to Ban Live Coverage of Attacks
Minute-by-minute news coverage by Afghan television stations of two recent suicide attacks proved an embarrassment for the government, showing that it could not stop militants from penetrating even heavily guarded areas of the capital.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

March 1st Morning Readbook

2010-03-01T04:13:00.000-08:00

Vote Seen as Pivotal Test for Both Iraq and Maliki
A few months ago, building on genuine if not universal popularity, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki appeared poised to win a second term as Iraq’s prime minister. Now, as Iraqis prepare to vote in parliamentary elections on March 7, his path to another four years in office has become increasingly uncertain, his campaign erratic and, to some, deeply troubling.

In Iraq, Americans Struggle to Relinquish Control
At 3 a.m. on Feb. 19, U.S. and Iraqi special forces burst into the home of Sheikh Turki Talal, leader of the powerful Ghartani tribe, and hauled the 71-year-old to jail on a terrorism-related arrest warrant.

Iraqi PM accused of handing out guns in bid to buy tribal votes
A senior Iraqi spy has accused the prime minister, Nour al-Maliki, of handing out thousands of guns to tribal leaders in a bid to win votes. The claim was made by Iraqi National Intelligence Service former spokesman, Saad al-Alusi, a week before Iraq's general election, in which allegations of vote buying and exorbitant handouts have become widespread.

Car bombs kill NATO soldier, five Afghans
Bombers targeted the police headquarters in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar and a NATO convoy Monday, detonating car bombs that killed six people including a foreign soldier.

Militants blow up NATO tanker in Pakistan: police
Suspected Islamist militants armed with guns and rockets on Monday blew up a tanker carrying fuel through Pakistan for NATO troops based in neighbouring Afghanistan, police said.

Bomber Called C.I.A. Target Gift From God
In a posthumously released video message, the suicide bomber who killed seven C.I.A. employees on Dec. 30 said that his original target had been his handler from Jordanian intelligence, and that an invitation to meet C.I.A. officers at a remote base in Afghanistan had been an unexpected boon.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 28th Morning Readbook

2010-02-28T08:28:00.000-08:00

Nato forces move on to Kandahar

Afghanistan bomb 'kills 11 civilians'
A roadside bomb has killed 11 civilians in southern Afghanistan's Helmand province, officials say.

Marines, Afghan troops to stay months in Marjah
More than 2,000 U.S. Marines and about 1,000 Afghan troops who stormed the Taliban town of Marjah as part of a major NATO offensive against a resurgent Taliban will stay several months to ensure insurgents don't return, Marine commanders said Sunday.

Pakistan suicide attack kills 4, wounds dozens
A suicide car bomber attacked a police station Saturday in northwestern Pakistan, killing four people and wounding about two dozen, underscoring the continuing security threat as the country's army battles militants.

Iraqi PM defends ban of candidates before vote
Iraq's prime minister on Sunday defended a decision to ban hundreds of candidates from the upcoming election, saying the decision was not intended to target the country's minority Sunni population.

U.S. pullout top challenge for Iraq security: minister
Iraq's armed forces will not finish a modernization program until 2020, several years after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country is completed, the defense minister said.

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Basics of COIN Part 8: Modus Ponens

2010-02-27T07:27:00.000-08:00

Modus ponens is deductive logic. In formula format this would translate to If p, then q. p; therefore q. An example would be:

-If he was late to class, then he must be enrolled in school.
-He was late to class.
-Therefore, he is enrolled in school.

Modern COIN doctrine, also called population-centric COIN, would be the following:

- If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security for popular support.
- The public perceives a threat.
- Therefore providing security will gain you popular support.

Population-Centric Counterinsurgency Primer

There are two logical fallacies in modern COIN doctrine that I will illustrate below.

In order to apply this logic to a COIN environment, we must first establish a premise then fact. The basic COIN premise would be as follows:

Premise -

If the public perceives a threat, then you must provide security to achieve popular support.

Determining the facts on the ground is the most difficult part and the current logical fallacy within modern COIN doctrine. The premise does not answer a simple yet critical question; "threat from whom?"

Facts -

Does the public perceive a threat from...

the host nation government?
insurgents?
counterrevolutionaries?
terrorists?
foreign nation proxies?

This is the second logical fallacy in modern COIN doctrine; a foreign force temporarily protecting the population may make the situation worse in the long term.

The "provide security" solution can be counterproductive depending upon the perceptions of the locals. If the threat is perceived to be from the host nation government, you are intimidating a population into subjugation. The nature of the perceived threat must match the nature of the response. When the host nation government is the perceived threat, then the foreign COIN force must become the honest broker facilitating reconciliation between the people and the government.

Furthermore, the provision of security may only be welcome so long as locals perceive a threat remaining. A more pragmatic, logical premise for "clear, hold, build" would be as follows:

- If the public perceives a threat from a common enemy, then offer to provide security.
- The public perceives a threat from a common enemy.
- Therefore offer to provide security.

February 26th Morning Readbook

2010-02-26T03:24:00.000-08:00

Deadly blasts rock central Kabul

Taliban defectors accept U.S. approach but wait for promises to be kept
As the Taliban commander in the Pusht-e-Zargon district of western Afghanistan, Abdul Wahab considered himself the law. A stolen sheep? He would choose the thief's punishment: often a gunshot to the forearm or calf muscle. He was careful to avoid the bone.

Indian media downbeat over Pakistan talks
Indian newspapers have extensively covered the first formal official talks between India and Pakistan since the Mumbai (Bombay) attacks of 2008.

Iran, Syria mock U.S. policy; Ahmadinejad speaks of Israel's 'annihilation'
The presidents of Iran and Syria on Thursday ridiculed U.S. policy in the region and pledged to create a Middle East "without Zionists," combining a slap at recent U.S. overtures and a threat to Israel with an endorsement of one of the region's defining alliances.

Dubai hit squad underestimated police: expert
A former top level US intelligence official says the assassination in Dubai of a Hamas operative has all the hallmarks of the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad.

Iraq anti-Baath panel moves to purge security forces
The panel names 580 security officers alleged to have ties to the former ruling party. The move, after hundreds of election candidates were barred on similar charges, is likely to raise tensions.

Iraq to Rehire 20,000 Hussein-Era Army Officers
The Iraqi government said Thursday that it would reinstate 20,000 army officers who served under Saddam Hussein, a surprising move given that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has focused his campaign in the coming parliamentary elections around denouncing the former Baath government.

Sectarian tensions rise before Iraq elections
A popular Sunni political party backtracked on Thursday from plans to boycott Iraq's parliamentary elections even as rivals threatened to have the party's leader charged with terrorism.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 25th Morning Readbook

2010-02-25T04:09:00.000-08:00

Kirkuk tensions threaten Iraq

Sunni leader decides to take part in Iraq election
Saleh al-Mutlaq during a news conference on Thursday reversed his earlier position and said he would now allow his party to take part in the vote. He called on all Iraqis to go to participate in elections.

Can Iraq protect its election from violence?
The Iraqi affiliate of al Qaeda threatened this month to prevent Iraq's March 7 election at any cost, using primarily "military" means to stop what it called a farce aimed at cementing Shi'ite Muslim domination over Sunnis.

International pressure urged over Afghan power grab
The former Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has said the West should threaten not to pay for his country's future elections.

India and Pakistan Resume Talks
At a critical moment across the region, senior officials from India and Pakistan held their first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks on Thursday, with the United States hoping that even a modest improvement in relations could help the broader American military effort in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda’s troubling new focus
THERE WAS much to celebrate when would-be subway bomber Najibullah Zazi entered a guilty plea this week in a Brooklyn court. But not all is well. The case is a forewarning about the evolving nature of threats from Al Qaeda.

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"To Fight With the Taliban"

2010-02-24T17:44:00.000-08:00

Cornell/Getty

Aspiring al Qaeda suicide bomber Najibullah Zazi in his own words.

THE DEFENDANT: Your Honor, during the spring and summer of 2008, I conspired with others to travel to Afghanistan to join the Taliban and fight against the U.S. military and its allies. We made this agreement in Queens, New York, to carry out this agreement. At the end of August 2008, we flew from New York airport to Peshawar, Pakistan.

THE COURT: Your purpose in going to Pakistan?

THE DEFENDANT: Was to join Taliban.

THE COURT: For the purpose of?

THE DEFENDANT: To fight alongside with the Taliban against the U.S. ... Also, our plan was to go to Afghanistan and fight with the Taliban. While we were in Peshawar, we were recruited by Al Qaeda, instead. We were taken by Al Qaeda to training camp in Waziristan, where we received weapons training.

During the training, Al Qaeda leaders asked us to return to the United States and conduct martyrdom operation. We agreed to this plan. I did so because of my feelings about what the United States was doing in Afghanistan.

Later, I received more training from Al Qaeda about how to construct the explosives for attack in the United States or to carry martyrdom operation. During my training, I had discussion with Al Qaeda ... leaders, including target locations, such as New York City subways.

In January 2009, I come back to United States. Beginning around June 2009, I accessed my bomb-making notes and began researching where to find the ingredients for the explosives.

I also took trips to New York, and meet with others to discuss the plan, including the timing of the attack, and where to make the explosives. I then used the bomb-making notes to construct explosive for the detonators in Denver. The explosive was hydrogen peroxide.

In early September 2009, I drove to New York with the detonator explosive and other materials ... necessary to build bombs.

I arrived in New York City on Thursday, Sept. 10. And we intend to obtain and assemble the remaining components to build a bomb over the weekend. The plan was to conduct martyrdom operation on subway lines in Manhattan as soon as the material were ready, Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.

When I arrived in New York City, I realized that law enforcement was investigating me. At that point, we threw away the detonator explosives and other materials, and I flew back to Denver, and I was arrested just a few days after.

You can find the full article here.

Behind Taliban Lines

2010-02-24T01:18:00.000-08:00

February 24th Morning Readbook

2010-02-24T01:16:00.000-08:00

Interview: US Commander in Helmand

Battle starts to win over Helmand locals and wean them off poppy growing
Afghan civilians will today begin to pour into the district cleared by British troops in a pivotal phase of the operation to banish the Taleban.

Taliban Capture Raises Hopes of Pakistan Shift
The capture of a second high-level leader of the Afghan Taliban by Pakistani authorities has raised the prospect that Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, long accused by the U.S. of ties with Islamist extremists, has begun to turn on an organization it once cultivated.

India Says Fired At By Pakistan Guards Ahead Of Talks
Indian border guards said their troops came under fire from Pakistan on Wednesday, a day before the two nuclear-armed neighbours are set for the first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Insurgency Rises in Northern Ireland
The car bomb that exploded in the Northern Ireland city of Newry Monday night highlights the resurgence in activity of Irish Republican splinter groups determined to wreck the province's fragile peace process with an increasingly sophisticated use of explosives.

Top Yemen al Qaeda leader threatens U.S. attacks
An article under the name of a senior member of al Qaeda's Yemen wing that the Yemeni government said it had killed has appeared on an Internet forum, threatening to carry out attacks in the United States.

Iraq Election Preview
Iraq will soon hold national elections -– a step critical to strengthening its democracy. These elections said, Commander of U.S. Forces in Iraq General Ray Odierno, "are important to everyone in the region, they are important to the people of Iraq, and they're important to people outside the region because of the impact it could have on stability not only in Iraq but in the Middle East as a whole."

Extending Our Stay in Iraq
IRAQ’S March 7 national election, and the formation of a new government that will follow, carry huge implications for both Iraqis and American policy. It appears now that the results are unlikely to resolve key political struggles that could return the country to sectarianism and violence.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Four Days to Turn Fundamentalists

2010-02-23T05:34:00.000-08:00

It is not that our enemies are so good, it is that we tie our own hands. Timelines are one thing, but giving our people four days to crack a killer with kindness is simply ridiculous and dangerous. Were this story not in the press, this revolving door policy would continue until U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

February 23rd Morning Readbook

2010-02-23T05:19:00.000-08:00

Afghani man pleads guilty to attempted terror bombings

Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Kabir 'seized in Pakistan'
A senior leader of the Afghan Taliban has been detained in Pakistan, US media reports say.

'Pakistan serious on improving India ties'
Pakistan's foreign minister said Tuesday that his country was serious about improving relations with India, ahead of the first official talks between the South Asian rivals in more than a year.

Iran: Arrested Sunni Militant Leader Had Help From US
Iranian officials say the head of a Sunni militant group was arrested outside the country, and that he had links to the United States.

Spike in Iraq Violence as Vote Nears
A series of bombings, beheadings and shootings rippled through Iraq on Monday, leaving at least 23 people dead, including 9 children, and intensifying concern about a spike in violence with less than two weeks until national elections.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Frontline: Behind Taliban Lines

2010-02-21T07:05:00.001-08:00

Preview:

Excerpt:

February 21st Morning Readbook

2010-02-21T07:04:00.000-08:00

Healing the wounded in Helmand

Marines, Afghan troops battle holdout insurgents in Marja
NATO encounters "determined resistance" around the southern Afghanistan town as the offensive rages for a ninth day

Dutch troops 'to leave Afghanistan as planned' - PM
A day after his cabinet collapsed, the Dutch prime minister says he expects Dutch troops to end their mission in Afghanistan in August as expected.

Iran calls on IAEA not to surrender to will of certain states
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Sunday that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should not surrender to the will of certain states over Iran's nuclear program, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Sunni party vows to boycott Iraqi elections
The Iraqi National Dialogue Front, whose leader was barred from running for parliament, cites 'Iranian interference' for its decision.

Abu Sayyaf commander killed in raid
Albader Parad, one of the Philippines's most wanted Abu Sayyaf leaders, has been confirmed killed in fighting with the military in the country's south, sources told Al Jazeera.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 20th Morning Readbook

2010-02-20T07:14:00.000-08:00

Human rights concerns in Iraq

Sunni party drops out of Iraq's national elections
Iraq's main Sunni party said Saturday it is dropping out of next month's national elections, seizing on U.S. concerns about Iran's influence in the political process as proof that the vote will not be legitimate.

Pakistan air strike 'kills 30 militants'
At least 30 militants were killed in an air strike by the Pakistani military as two suicide bombers attacked police stations in northwest Pakistan Saturday, officials said. The air strike took place in South Waziristan district where the military in October launched an air and ground offensive to flush out Taliban militants.

Taliban put up stiff resistance to U.S.-led offensive in Afghanistan
Foreign and Afghan forces encountered stiff resistance Saturday as their offensive in southern Afghanistan entered its second week, and a civilian was mistakenly shot dead.

Afghan president renews peace calls to Taliban
Afghan President Hamid Karzai renewed his call on Saturday for the Taliban to accept his peace proposal, after a NATO offensive and the capture of a top Taliban leader raised hopes the group could be more flexible.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 19th Morning Readbook

2010-02-19T04:14:00.000-08:00

Nato-Afghan offensive in Helmand 'a success', governor says

Concern over Afghan civilians slows NATO advance
Whenever Afghanistan's Taliban turn up the heat in the battle with U.S. Marines, the troops have to think twice before retaliating or calling in air strikes in order to avoid civilian casualties.

US compensates Afghans for death, damage from war
The fallout of war has a price in southern Afghanistan. U.S. Army units fighting the Taliban in Helmand province have a compensation system for any death, injury or damage to crops and buildings caused by American forces to Afghan civilians and their property.

In Afghanistan, Marines handling detainees by the book
The Marines have been ordered not to treat Afghans roughly. When making an arrest, they are instructed to ask their suspect to voluntarily go with them. Most do.

U.S. strike in Pakistan kills Afghan militant's son
A son of the leader of a major Taliban faction attacking Western forces in Afghanistan was killed in a recent missile strike by a U.S. drone in Pakistan, security officials said on Friday.

Blast as Holbrooke visits Pakistan
An explosion at a mosque in northwestern Pakistan has killed at least 29 people and wounded dozens more.

Is the U.S. Hotter on Bin Laden's Trail?
Are the U.S. and Pakistan one step closer to hunting down Osama bin Laden? The recent capture of the Taliban's military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, as he was leaving a seminary in the Pakistani seaport of Karachi may have given investigators several leads in tracking down the the fugitive al-Qaeda chief.

War in Iraq will be called 'Operation New Dawn' to reflect reduced U.S. role
The Obama administration has decided to give the war in Iraq a new name -- "Operation New Dawn" -- to reflect the reduced role U.S. troops will play in securing the country this year as troop levels fall, according to a memo from Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Ending al Qaeda

2010-02-18T04:38:00.000-08:00

Malcolm Nance is becoming my new favorite author. His assessment and strategy for defeating al Qaeda is brilliant. The commentary and overview provided in the Rachel Maddow interview compliment the counter narrative dialogue over at Al Sahwa I encourage everyone to read. The intro to the interview is cheesy and somewhat painful to watch but once you get past the goofy graphics it gets very interesting, very quick.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

For those interesting in Nance's book, you can pick it up here.

"Iraq 2005" Comparisons Continue

2010-02-18T04:13:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, Tom Ricks highlighted an article from the Washington Post in which a U.S. military official made the 2005 comparisons.

"All we're doing is setting the clock back to 2005," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer a stark assessment. "The militias are fully armed, and al-Qaeda in Iraq is trying to move back from the west. These are the conditions now, and we're sitting back looking at PowerPoint slides and whitewashing."

You can read the full article here. Individuals on their fourth or fifth tour are restricted to bases. The U.S. forces leadership is focused on Iraq's election day and U.S. troops leaving the country. It took General Odierno over a month to publicly acknowledge Iranian interference in the upcoming Iraqi elections, something General Petraeus noted to the press within weeks of the de-baathification bans by Ali Faisal al Lami and Ahmed Chalabi. This calls into question which general has the better grasp of conditions on the ground.

In January we made our own comparisons to 2005, but most recently detailed the reasons for our pessimistic outlook. You can read "Explaining the Pessimism on Iraq" here.

February 18th Morning Readbook

2010-02-18T03:41:00.000-08:00

Obstacles in path to Afghan peace

Afghan and international forces are reported to be planning for a major military assault against the Taliban in Kunduz, a northern province, along the lines of Operation Moshtarak under way in Helmand.

Marines still looking over shoulder for Taliban
It's only been six days since NATO launched a major assault against the Taliban and some Afghans are already asking Marines when they can reopen their shops.

Taliban town residents skeptical of NATO promises
The Taliban's white flag no longer flies over villages across this militant stronghold. Afghan and NATO troops have replaced it with Afghanistan's official green-and-red banner, which they promise heralds new schools and clinics and good governance.

Insurgents put up resistance in Taliban town
U.S. Marines pummeled insurgents with mortars, sniper fire and missiles as fighting intensified Thursday in two areas of the Taliban southern stronghold of Marjah, where U.S. and Afghan forces are facing stubborn resistance in an operation now in its sixth day.

Pakistan arrests 2 senior Afghan Taliban: official
Pakistan has captured two "shadow governors" belonging to Afghanistan's Taliban movement, an Afghan official said on Thursday.

Suicide bomber kills 11 in Iraq's Anbar province
A suicide bomber killed at least 11 people and wounded 21 others on Thursday in Iraq's increasingly turbulent western Anbar province, a senior Iraqi army official and police said.

Iran Continues to Subvert Iraq, Officials Say
As national elections in Iraq loom on the horizon, Iran continues to subvert its western neighbor’s security and political infrastructure, top American military officials said. Army Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the top American commander in Iraq, said Iran aims to foment violence in Iraq and to play diplomatic and other nonmilitary roles that call into question Iran’s respect for Iraqi sovereignty.

U.N. officials criticize U.S. restrictions on aid to Somalia
U.N. officials on Wednesday ratcheted up their criticism of U.S. policy in Somalia, declaring that recent restrictions intended to prevent al-Qaeda-linked Somali Islamists from gaining strength are holding up humanitarian aid to some of the world's most desperate people.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 17th Morning Readbook

2010-02-17T04:47:00.000-08:00

Taliban second in command captured

'Muted' Pakistan media response to Taliban arrest
The Pakistani media's response to the arrest of top Afghan Taliban military commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has been surprisingly muted.

Marines battling Afghanistan Taliban call in gunships
US Marines battling the Taliban in southern Afghanistan have had to call in helicopter gunships for support, as a major offensive enters its fifth day.

Iran leader accuses U.S. of "war-mongering"
Iran's supreme leader accused the United States on Wednesday of war-mongering and of turning the Gulf into an "arms depot", hitting back at U.S. accusations that the Islamic state was moving toward a military dictatorship.

Al Qaeda warns of attacks in India
Global terror network Al Qaeda’s Pakistan arm has warned of attacks in India, particularly targeting upcoming international sports events like the Commonwealth Games, the Hockey World Cup and the IPL cricket league.

US troops in Iraq below 100,000 for first time since 2003
The size of the US force in Iraq has dropped below 100,000 troops for the first time since the invasion of the country in 2003, a military spokesman said Wednesday.

General Says 2 Iraq Politicians Have Ties to Iran
General Odierno was unusually blunt in publicly expressing concerns about the actions of the two Iraqis: Ahmed Chalabi, who was a confidant of Bush administration officials in the prelude to the 2003 invasion but now is perceived as having supplied false intelligence to the United States; and Ali Faisal al-Lami, suspected of involvement in murderous activities of Shiite militants, including a bombing in Baghdad, accusations that he denies.

Iran Has Designs on Iraq
Vice President Joe Biden recently told Larry King that Iraq "could be one of the great achievements of this administration." Mr. Biden's transparent attempt to take credit for Bush administration policies aside, it's worth asking how exactly does the Obama administration define success in Iraq?

Just weeks before elections, specter of sectarian violence resurfaces in Iraq
It was only one killing, but it unleashed the demons of a bitter and perhaps unfinished past. The victim was a Sunni man in the mostly Shiite neighborhood of Hurriyah, in northwest Baghdad. The death and the aftermath were reminiscent of the prelude to the sectarian war, which began in late 2005 with a smattering of killings and threats and culminated with 100 bodies a day being dumped in the streets of the capital. With the imminent departure of American forces and fierce competition for power ahead of general elections on March 7, many here say sectarian strife is reigniting.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 16th Morning Readbook

2010-02-16T06:59:00.000-08:00

Who is Mullah Brader?

Mullah Abdul Ghani Brader, described as the senior Taliban military commander who managed the day-to-day operations of the group's leadership council, the Quetta Shura, has reportedly been captured in Pakistan.

Taliban’s 2nd-in-command nabbed in Pakistan
The Taliban's top military commander has been arrested in a joint CIA-Pakistani operation in Pakistan, officials said Tuesday.

Marines: Taliban resistance more disorganized
U.S. and Afghan forces traded gunfire with insurgents shooting from haystacks in poppy fields in the Taliban stronghold of Marjah as they pressed ahead in NATO's assault on the militants' heartland in southern Afghanistan.

Pakistan's lawyers strike over judicial appointments made by President Zardari
A fresh standoff between Pakistan's judiciary and its weak government simmered Monday, as lawyers staged a nationwide strike and political prognosticators warned of instability in the wobbly democracy.

Unknown Pakistani group claims responsibility for Pune blast
An unknown group calling itself the Laskhar-e-Taiba Al Alami claimed on Tuesday it was behind Saturday’s bomb attack in Pune that killed nine people.

Iran official says backs visits to U.S. detainees
A senior Iranian human rights official said on Tuesday he had recommended that three Americans detained in his country be allowed to receive family visits.

Facing death, freed Iraq detainees may fight again
Many Iraqis released by U.S. forces after being detained for suspected links to Sunni insurgents have been killed by tribes seeking revenge or are being driven back into the arms of al Qaeda.

Bombing at Iraq Crime Lab Kills 2 Policemen
Iraqi officials say a car bomb exploded outside a police crime lab in the northern city of Mosul Tuesday, killing two officers.

US tells Iraq to improve prisons, stamp out abuse
In a U.N. debate, the United States has urged the Iraqi government to improve its poor prison conditions and to investigate allegations of detainee abuse.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 15th Morning Readbook

2010-02-15T07:26:00.000-08:00

US marines take aim during a battle against the Taliban in Marjah on February 12. Thousands of US-led troops backed by helicopters stormed a Taliban stronghold in southern Afghanistan in the first major test of President Barack Obama's new surge policy. (AFP/File/Patrick Baz)

The Marines move on Marja: A perilous slog against Afghanistan's Taliban
For the Marines of Charlie Company's 3rd Platoon, Sunday's mission was simple enough: Head west for a little more than a mile to link up with Alpha Company in preparation for a mission to secure the few ramshackle government buildings in this farming community.

Afghanistan offensive is key test of Obama's strategy
The largest military offensive of the eight-year war in Afghanistan, launched this weekend in southwestern Helmand province, is a crucial test for President Obama's strategy of more troops, more civilians and more money.

Sir Jock Stirrup says UK troops 'must win Afghan trust'
The head of the UK's armed forces, Sir Jock Stirrup, has said the killing of 12 civilians during Operation Moshtarak in Afghanistan was a "serious setback".

Suspected U.S. Drone Strike Kills 3 in Pakistan
This is the second drone attack in 2 days. On Sunday, officials say seven militants were killed when two missiles, fired from a drone, struck a militant training compound in the town of Mir Ali

Pakistan lawyers rally against president
Hundreds of lawyers joined rallies across Pakistan on Monday denouncing President Asif Ali Zardari after he clashed with the Supreme Court in a fresh crisis for the insurgency-hit nation.

Yemen Houthis free Saudi captive
Yemen's Houthi rebels have handed over one of five captured Saudi Arabian soldiers to committee overseeing the group's ceasefire with the government.

Iraqi lawmaker: Sunni boycott won't solve standoff
A top Sunni Arab leader, banned from running in next month's elections, said Monday that a Sunni boycott won't solve a standoff over who can run in Iraq's next parliament — though he stopped short of urging his supporters to vote.

Anti-Saddam purge both woos and worries Iraq voters
Government rhetoric against Saddam Hussein's Baath party will woo some Iraqi Shi'ite voters ahead of an election, but many people feel uneasy about a return to the sectarian politics that has spilled so much blood.

ANALYSIS - Iraqi PM Maliki weakened ahead of national vote
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki came out of local polls last year as Iraq's dominant leader, but a string of bombings and alliances among rivals have weakened him ahead of a March national vote.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Battle of the Blow Hards

2010-02-14T13:44:00.000-08:00

I tend to avoid U.S. political debates like the plague. The only reason I am posting this is due to the topics discussed by the current and former Vice President. From a neutral perspective based upon public statements and news reports overseas, the Obama administration champions a kill-not-capture policy while Cheney pushes for an aggressive kill-and-capture policy. I still cannot figure out where either side stands on homegrown terrorists.

I will leave it to sound bite pundits to remove the context of the interviews to damn the side they oppose. Here in their full context are the two interviews from this morning.

VP Biden

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Former VP Cheney

Coming Soon - Behind Taliban Lines

2010-02-14T04:35:00.000-08:00

A new Frontline special on the Taliban will air and be available online February 23, 2010. Program description follows:

"This past fall, an Afghan video journalist negotiated extraordinary access to a part of the country that has quietly reverted back to Taliban control. For close to two weeks, the journalist traveled a region that he found was now largely under control of the Taliban "shadow" government. He also tracked members of an insurgent cell working with members of Al Qaeda on a mission to sabotage a major U.S./NATO supply route. As the new U.S. strategy focuses on the south and eastern parts of the country, this film opens up a window onto a potential new front in the north, and sheds an important light on who's fighting the U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and why."

You can check for updates on the Frontline main page here.

The two most recent Frontline specials on the Taliban are embedded below.

Obama's War - October 13, 2009

The War Briefing - Oct. 28, 2008

February 14th Morning Readbook

2010-02-14T03:48:00.000-08:00

Forces 'positive' on Afghan assault

In a series of airborne assaults, more than two thousand US and British troops have flooded into Taliban-controlled territory in southern Afghanistan, supporting Afghan forces in the largest military offensive in the country since the 2001 US-led invasion.

Nato aims to add to Afghan gains
Thousands of US, UK and Afghan troops are trying to consolidate gains on the second day of a major offensive against the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.

Pakistan court order raises new instability fears
A decision by Pakistan's Supreme Court to strike down a presidential order appointing two top judges triggered warnings Sunday of a new conflict between the judiciary and the government that could lead to broader political instability.

India says investigating local, foreign leads to blast
India's government said it had little idea who was behind a bomb in a tourist eatery in western India that killed nine people, with sources saying they were looking at the possible involvement of Islamist militants.

Under Obama, more targeted killings than captures in counterterrorism efforts
When a window of opportunity opened to strike the leader of al-Qaeda in East Africa last September, U.S. Special Operations forces prepared several options. They could obliterate his vehicle with an airstrike as he drove through southern Somalia. Or they could fire from helicopters that could land at the scene to confirm the kill. Or they could try to take him alive.

Iraq secular bloc suspends campaign
The Iraqi National Movement, a coalition of Sunni Arabs and secularists, halts election campaigning to protest the upholding of a ban on some candidates. It hints at a ballot boycott.

String of Iraq bomb attacks target poll candidates
A string of bombings targeted groups taking part in Iraq's March election late on Saturday, wounding seven people, an Interior Ministry official said.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Explaining the Pessimism on Iraq

2010-02-13T06:57:00.000-08:00

The pessimistic outlook for Iraq is founded in several fact-based observations. This outlook can easily change as events unfold. As of today, here is where we stand:

1. Al Qaeda in Iraq - They were not "strategically defeated" as previously claimed. The phrase has little to no meaning. Today, they are a failed revolutionary insurgent movement, but the most lethal terrorist force in Iraq.

2. Saddam Trauma - Iraqi government leaders consistently mention al Qaeda in Iraq and Baath in the wake of major attacks. These former exiles, now senior government officials, were telling us a similar story in 2002. As demonstrated by the anti-Baath rhetoric dominating the current election cycle, they truly believe this.

Formula for Violence

We have previously described violence as an indication that control over territory is disputed. We have also stated that the belief in an existential threat is required to incite violence.

Therefore we would have the following formula:

TC + ET = V

or

Territorial control plus existential threat equals violence

Current Momentum

1. Al Qaeda in Iraq will continue to attack the Iraqi government

2. The Iraqi government does not distinguish between a former Baath party member and a current member of al Qaeda in Iraq

Therefore -

The Iraqi government will eventually be forced to conduct a unilateral security operation against al Qaeda in Iraq completely independent from U.S. influence or support.

Projected Outcome

1. Due to the Iraqi government's consistent mixing of the Baath and al Qaeda in Iraq, this pending operation will likely target Sunni Arabs at large.

2. Such an operation will complete the TC + ET = V formula for Sunni Arab civilians under siege.

3. If the Iraqi government does not succeed immediately in crushing the will to fight, a new insurgency is inevitable.

COIN/CT Lessons from Drug Induced Dancing

2010-02-13T04:55:00.000-08:00

You may have already seen this video, but it is a great parable on trendy social movements and tipping points.

The audio description is what I found most interesting. The main lesson to walk away with is how crucial it was to easily mimic the dance. Were this a difficult dance, the originator would have been nothing more than an observed solo performer. Also the role of the first follower made it acceptable for a few more people to join. Once the first follower's friends join in, the tipping point is then reached at 1:15. From then on, people join in groups and the originator or "leader" is irrelevant as the movement has a life of his own. Only the music ending stops everyone from dancing, not the "leader."

Now take that template and apply it to al Qaeda in Iraq. What sort of impact would killing or capturing the leadership have today? This is precisely why the classic insurgency texts emphasized the need to destroy an insurgency at its onset. Otherwise it becomes an integrated part of a society for at least a generation if not longer. So how do we end the al Qaeda-styled movements? Find the music and turn it off.

The book "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell is a great starting point for those interested in mapping the epidemic-like spread of societal trends through social networks.

February 13th Morning Readbook

2010-02-13T04:19:00.000-08:00

Iraq's political wrangling
What happened to national reconciliation? Is Saddam in his grave stronger than Maliki's government? And is Maliki upholding the law or playing with fire?

Saddam shadow darkens Iraq elections
The legacy of Saddam Hussein continues to divide Iraq. Preparations for the country's parliamentary election have been thrown into chaos by a row over a decision to ban hundreds of candidates because of alleged links to the former president's now outlawed Baath Party.

Iraqi politics in disarray as US pullback nears
With elections looming and the U.S. withdrawal of combat troops less than seven months away, political disarray is threatening Iraq's future as well its past. A parliamentary logjam is holding up legislation touching everything from prison staff, border crossings and counterterrorism troops to an archaeological excavation in dire need of tourists.

Anti-Baath campaign a spur to Iraq Shiite voters
But some experts call claims that the former Baath Party of Saddam Hussein is resurgent an election ploy. They say the two main Shiite blocs feared a public swing away from sectarian politics.

Marines meet with Afghans to explain offensive, seek support
Hundreds of Afghan men walked for miles over dusty roads Saturday morning to get to an open-air meeting to hear the Marines explain those angry sounds of war coming from the Taliban stronghold of Marja.

Helicopter armada heralds Afghanistan surge
An armada of helicopters lifted a vast force against Taliban strongholds today in the biggest operation ever mounted in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's president backs better ties with India
Good relations between Pakistan and India are vital for fighting Islamist militancy, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said on Saturday, as the old rivals prepare for their first official talks since the Mumbai attack.

Yemen rebels 'implementing truce terms'
Shiite rebels in Yemen said on Saturday they had pulled out of an occupied airport in the north and were arranging to free their Saudi prisoners, in line with a truce agreed with Sanaa.

Thousands flee Somalia fighting, says UN refugee agency
Thousands of people have fled Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, since Wednesday, the UN refugee agency has said.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

February 12th Morning Readbook

2010-02-12T03:06:00.000-08:00

An Iraqi Kurd looks at election campaign posters of Kurdish candidates plastered on a concrete wall protecting a checkpoint in Kirkuk. Official campaigning for Iraq's March 7 general election has started in a tense atmosphere overshadowed by angry demands from provincial leaders that workers linked to Saddam Hussein be fired. (AFP/Marwan Ibrahim)

Iraq 'upholds' poll ban on two MPs
A panel of Iraqi judges has reportedly upheld the decision to bar two prominent Sunni members of parliament from contesting in general elections scheduled for March 7.

Iraq election campaign begins
Official campaigning for Iraq's March 7 general election started on Friday in a tense atmosphere overshadowed by angry demands from provincial leaders that workers linked to Saddam Hussein be fired.

How the Taliban pressed bin Laden
Evidence now available from various sources, including recently declassified United States State Department documents, shows that the Taliban regime led by Mullah Mohammad Omar imposed strict isolation on Osama bin Laden after 1998 to prevent him from carrying out any plots against the United States.

US and Afghan troops ring Taliban stronghold
U.S. and Afghan forces ringed the Taliban stronghold of Marjah on Thursday, sealing off escape routes and setting the stage for what is being described as the biggest offensive of the nine-year war.

Five Americans wounded in suicide attack at US base in Afghanistan
An Afghan official says a suicide attacker wearing a police uniform blew himself up at a US base in eastern Afghanistan, wounding five Americans. The spokesman for Paktia province, Roullah Samoun, says the attack occurred tonight in the Dand aw Patan district near the Pakistan border about 70 kilometres east of Gardez.

Pakistan and India to Resume Talks on Feb. 25 in New Delhi
Talks between Pakistan and India halted by the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks will resume on Feb. 25 as the two countries’ foreign secretaries meet in New Delhi, Pakistan’s government said in a statement.

Yemen government and rebels call ceasefire
Hopes that truce will bring an end to six-year conflict which has diverted resources from fighting al-Qaida in the country

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

RIP Congressman Wilson

2010-02-11T15:50:00.000-08:00

***Skip to the 36:00 mark***

For those interested in more on the real story of Charlie Wilson's war here are a few links. I highly recommend the History Channel DVD as it stars the former Congressman himself.

Follow Up: Vindication Via Kilcullen

2010-02-11T07:15:00.000-08:00

Previously I posted on David Kilcullen corroborating concepts we have discussed here. After speaking with a few friends, I felt it important to note where I disagree with Kilcullen and other modern COIN theorists.

I still do not understand why we insist on calling resistance against the governments of two democratic revolutions "insurgencies." The Awakening was against al Qaeda in Iraq, not for the Iraqi government. There are areas in Afghanistan where locals reject the Taliban and the Karzai government. Foreign forces surrounding a village and helping locals rebuild wheelbarrows fosters a temporary working relationship, not acceptance of a new national government.

The revolutionary aspects of these two wars are completely overlooked. We are admittedly terrible at information operations and still have yet to stand up any significant political indoctrination programs. The Taliban will settle land disputes and administer "justice" through sharia courts. ISAF will repair irrigation and tell opium farmers to plant wheat. How are these two actions remotely related?

"Body count" is the only one of Kilcullen's recommendations that really bothered me. If this is being used anywhere it demonstrates the inability of the U.S. to institutionalize lessons learned. This metric is mentioned as a criticism in almost every post-Vietnam paper and is just shy of advising against a Westmoreland-styled strategy of attrition against insurgents. This was the first and most important lesson learned from Vietnam. If this has to be told to U.S. forces in Afghanistan today, we are in far greater trouble than we are currently aware.

Tom Ricks' three Kilcullen excerpts can be found here, here, and here.

Basics of COIN Part 7: Threat

2010-02-11T06:34:00.000-08:00

(AFP/File/Str)

Existential threats, whether real or perceived, are the primary instigators of insurgent and counterrevolutionary violence. Political grievances can be found everywhere but most do not translate into violent activity. If a people, social network, or class believe they are on the verge of being annihilated, they will defend themselves. In other words, the system of government is irrelevant when there is a widespread belief of violent injustice.

The concept of defending others is a powerful point for indoctrinating new recruits as well as a strong narrative to gain and maintain popular support. This is done on all sides of a conflict as it holds a universal appeal to human nature; defending the weak against aggression. Osama Bin Ladin would consistently portray the U.S. as the aggressors while he was merely defending all the Muslim people.

And that day, it was confirmed to me that oppression and the intentional killing of innocent women and children is a deliberate American policy. Destruction is freedom and democracy, while resistance is terrorism and intolerance.

This means the oppressing and embargoing to death of millions as Bush Sr did in Iraq in the greatest mass slaughter of children mankind has ever known, and it means the throwing of millions of pounds of bombs and explosives at millions of children - also in Iraq - as Bush Jr did, in order to remove an old agent and replace him with a new puppet to assist in the pilfering of Iraq's oil and other outrages.

So with these images and their like as their background, the events of September 11th came as a reply to those great wrongs, should a man be blamed for defending his sanctuary?

Is defending oneself and punishing the aggressor in kind, objectionable terrorism? If it is such, then it is unavoidable for us.

Osama Bin Ladin - November 2004

Whether the threat is real or imagined is irrelevant. It simply must be believed in order for violence to occur. This is the most crucial information to discover about a local area. Identify the rumors, truth, and spin propagating the belief of an existential threat. Countering this belief is essential to countering insurgents and counterrevolutionaries.

A word of caution. If a foreign force or host nation government is determined to violently neutralize a group of people, negating the perceptions of an existential threat may ultimately facilitate an attempt at genocide similar to what we witnessed in Iraq after the parliamentary elections and government formation in 2006. When people have no option but to fight or die, they will do exactly that.

February 11th Morning Readbook

2010-02-11T04:57:00.000-08:00

Opposition on Iran's anniversary

Joe Biden update: Iraq one of Obama's 'great achievements'
I am very optimistic about -- about Iraq. I mean, this could be one of the great achievements of this administration. You're going to see 90,000 American troops come marching home by the end of the summer. You're going to see a stable government in Iraq that is actually moving toward a representative government.

Biden: Qaeda moving to small, frightening attacks
Vice President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that al Qaeda was moving in the direction of smaller but "devastatingly frightening" attacks and he viewed the chance of another September 11-style mass assault as unlikely.

Iraq Oil Line Bombed; Output Drops
Attackers bombed a frequently attacked oil pipeline north of Baghdad, slowing production at a refinery in the capital by half, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said Wednesday.

Afghan campaign seeks to avoid Iraq mistakes
Chances of success for a NATO offensive in the last big Taliban bastion in Afghanistan's Helmand province may depend on ensuring the operation doesn't repeat the destruction of Fallujah in Iraq in 2004.

Taliban, Marines exchange fire as battle looms
U.S. Marines and Taliban insurgents exchanged gunfire Thursday on the outskirts of Marjah, a southern militant stronghold where American and Afghan forces are expected to launch a major attack in the coming days.

Iran opposes Taliban reintegration
Tehran rejected plans to make peace with moderate Taliban members as part of a broad reconciliation effort unveiled by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Qaeda threats should be taken seriously: Yemen FM
Yemen's foreign minister has warned that Al-Qaeda threats should be taken seriously, after a top militant said the network's local branch aims to seize control of a strategic international waterway.

The latest news from Al Jazeera

February 10th Morning Readbook

2010-02-10T03:21:00.000-08:00

Expatriate Iraqis look at a candidates list at a polling station in Amman in 2005. At least 10 polling stations are to open in Jordan for Iraqi expatriates to take part in their country's March 7 election, as part of worldwide out-of-country voting, Iraq's ambassador said on Tuesday. (AFP/File/Khalil Mazraawi)

Iraq poll candidate ban appeals wrongly presented
Almost all the candidates who contested their ban from Iraq's upcoming parliamentary election did not submit their cases properly and may have lost the chance to appeal, an Iraqi legal body said on Tuesday. Nearly 500 candidates for Iraq's March 7 vote were disqualified from standing in the election by the Justice and Accountability Commission for alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party, sparking political uproar.

Security developments in Iraq, Feb 10
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed two policemen and wounded four others on the western outskirts of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded three people including a district official in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A sticky bomb attached to the car of an Iraqi soldier wounded him in eastern Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed a civilian and wounded six others on Tuesday in eastern Mosul, police said.

Iraq Kurdistan oil exports to resume in coming days
Iraq expects to announce the resumption of oil exports from its northern Kurdistan region in the "coming days", Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told reporters on Wednesday.

Pakistani officials: Taliban chief is dead
Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud has died, the country's top civilian security official told The Associated Press Wednesday, giving the government's first categorical confirmation of the death of the feared militant leader.

Marines plan joint mission to eject insurgents from last Helmand stronghold
In the late 1950s, scores of U.S. engineers transformed a swath of uninhabited desert in southern Afghanistan into verdant farmland by constructing a network of irrigation canals fed by the Helmand River. The Afghan government filled the area, which it called Marja, with Pashtun nomads and told them to grow wheat.

Toll Mounts in Afghan Avalanche
High in the Hindu Kush mountain range, Basir Salangi, a senior provincial official, surveyed a vista of tragedy on Wednesday after avalanches buried hundreds of cars and severed Kabul’s heavily traveled link to northern Afghanistan. The death toll seemed far higher, he said, than initially feared.

Yemen getting tougher with Somalis on Qaeda fears
Somalis fleeing war have long found refuge in Yemen, seen as a way station to Saudi Arabia, but fear of al Qaeda infiltration has cooled their welcome.

Opposing view: 'We need no lectures' By John Brennan
Politics should never get in the way of national security. But too many in Washington are now misrepresenting the facts to score political points, instead of coming together to keep us safe.

Brennan: Political 'fear-mongering' serves 'the goals of al-Qaeda'
President Obama's top counter-terrorism adviser asserted Tuesday that "too many in Washington are now misrepresenting the facts to score political points" regarding the administration's handling of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the alleged Christmas Day bomber.

The main headlines on Al Jazeera

Vindication Via Kilcullen

2010-02-09T06:12:00.000-08:00

Last week we posted our sixth installment of the Basics of COIN series dealing with violence as a metric. We noted that violence is an indication of disputed territory, not an indication of stability. Yesterday, David Kilcullen was highlighted on Tom Ricks' blog discussing what not to measure in a COIN environment.

"SIGACTs, especially those involving violence against the coalition." This is a related point. Be wary of SIGACTs trends. Violence may be low in an area simply because it is in the uncontested control of the enemy.

You can read Ricks' full entry here.

February 9th Morning Readbook

2010-02-09T06:04:00.000-08:00

Iraq's former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi gestures while answering questions during an interview with Reuters in Baghdad February 8, 2010. A ban on election candidates accused of links with Saddam Hussein's Baath party threatens to drag Iraq into civil war, a former prime minister and head of a group seen as a strong contender in the polls said on Monday. (REUTERS/Mohammed Ameen)

Most banned Iraqi poll candidates' appeals rejected
Almost all the candidates who contested their ban from Iraq's upcoming parliamentary election did not submit their cases properly and lost the chance to appeal, an Iraqi legal body said on Tuesday.

Ba'ath ban sparks fears
A ban on election candidates accused of links to Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led Ba'ath party is threatening to drag Iraq into civil war, a former prime minister said yesterday.

In Northern Iraq, a Vote Seems Likely to Split
There was a hope, not long ago, that democracy would mean peace and stability for Nineveh, a place where cultures and armies have clashed since biblical times. Instead, democracy is hardening divisions — of people, of resources, of land — in ways that threaten the future of Iraq itself.

Taliban claim to debut new bomb 'Omar'
The Taliban claimed Tuesday to have developed a new bomb nicknamed Omar after their fugitive leader and which they say is impossible Western mine sweepers to detect.

Pakistani Military Retakes Key Town in Tribal Belt From Taliban
The Pakistani military has retaken the key town of Damadola, in the Bajaur area of the tribal belt, where the army has been fighting Taliban militants for more than a year, military and local officials said Monday.

Yemen: Qaeda Affiliate Urges Joint Blockade of Red Sea
The Yemen-based wing of Al Qaeda called Monday for a regional holy war and a blockade of the Red Sea to cut off shipments to Israel. In an audio recording posted on a jihadist Web site, the group’s deputy leader, Said Ali al-Shihri, called on the Somali insurgent group Shabab to help block the strait that separates Yemen from the Horn of Africa. The Shabab does not control the African side of the strait.

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The Fall of Saigon: April 29-30, 1975

2010-02-08T08:46:00.000-08:00

February 8th Morning Readbook

2010-02-08T04:12:00.000-08:00

Afghanistan's influential elders

Senior Afghan policeman held over planting bombs
A senior Afghan policeman has been arrested in connection with planting and storing roadside bombs, Nato officials said.

INTERVIEW-NATO, Afghans to hold Taliban bastion "forever"
NATO forces and their Afghan allies will hold territory seized from the Taliban in an imminent major operation "forever", the commander of British forces in southern Afghanistan's Helmand province said.

India-Pakistan thaw key to Afghan peace
India has proposed the first high-level bilateral talks with Pakistan since their peace process broke down following the terrorist attack on Mumbai in November 2008.

Al-Qaeda is a wounded but dangerous enemy
In the past six weeks, Americans have witnessed two jarringly different -- but completely accurate -- views of al-Qaeda's terrorist network. One image was that of terrorist leaders being hunted down and killed by satellite-guided, pilotless aircraft. The other was of an agile foe slipping past U.S. defenses and increasingly intent on striking inside the United States.

Iraq's parliament delays debate over candidates ban
The Iraqi parliament postponed to Monday an extraordinary session due to be held on Sunday to discuss the decision of an appeals panel to allow hundreds of banned candidates to run in the March 7 parliamentary elections.

Iraq terrorist group kidnap two Americans
The terrorist group responsible for the deaths of at least three British security contractors in Iraq says it has now seized two Americans. "The League of the Righteous " has already released a video of one of the men, an Iraqi-American named as Issa Salomi, a civilian employed by the Pentagon. Mr Salomi went missing on January 23. The identity of the second hostage has not been made clear, but it is thought it could be another Iraqi-American, an army sergeant who disappeared while on an unauthorised visit to his family in 2006.

Iran to enrich uranium to 20% as nuclear fears grow
Iran has announced immediate plans to step up its nuclear programme, which Western nations fear could be used to make a bomb.

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February 7th Morning Readbook

2010-02-07T04:45:00.000-08:00

Militant Video Shows Abducted American in Iraq

Iraq militant group says it's holding American hostage
In a video, a man believed to be Issa Salomi calls for Iraqi prisoners to be released. The Defense Department says Salomi, a civilian contractor, has been unaccounted for since Jan. 23.

Iranian-backed Shia terror group kidnaps US civilian in Baghdad
An Iranian-backed Shia terror group that claims it seeks reconciliation with the Iraqi government has kidnapped a US civilian in Baghdad. The US recently released the top leader of the group under the guise of a reconciliation program, but the release actually was related to a hostage exchange.

Iraq Shi'ite leaders vow Baath purge as furor grows
Iraq's Shi'ite parties held emotional demonstrations on Sunday and vowed to purge loyalists of Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party as tensions over a list of candidates banned from a March election soared.

Planned Afghan assault to send 'strong signal': McChrystal
Dubbed Operation Mushtarak, the operation will "send a strong signal that the Afghan government is expanding its security control," said US General Stanley McChrystal, who commands 113,000 US and NATO forces fighting the militants.

Karachi violence blow to Pakistan economy
A wave of political and sectarian violence sweeping Karachi threatens heavy financial losses in the country's economic hub, where analysts fear Islamists are bent on fanning maximum instability.

Pakistan says seizes Taliban base on Afghan border
Pakistani forces have captured a stronghold of al Qaeda-backed militants near the Afghan border after days of clashes in which 60 militants were killed, the military said.

Yemen arrests embassy bomb threat suspect
Yemen has arrested a man suspected of threatening to bomb foreign embassies in the capital Sanaa and to assassinate Yemeni political and military leaders, state media reported on Sunday.

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Teach Yourself U.S. COIN Theory for Conventional Forces

2010-02-06T05:19:00.000-08:00

The U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center has an 11 part series that is definitely worth skimming. The PowerPoints are accompanied by recorded lecture segments for each individual slide. The lectures are broken up as follows:

1) HTS COIN Intro

2) COIN 101 Part 1

3) COIN 101 Part 2

4) Foundations of Insurgency

5) Understanding The Environment

6) Clear Hold Build

7) Culture and Situational Awareness

8) COIN Do's and Don'ts Part 1

9) COIN Do's and Don'ts Part 2

10) COIN Lessons Learned

11) COIN Resources

12) Audio Clips

There is a constant mentioning of "death by PowerPoint" repeated in nearly every lecture which get irritating. Other than that, it is an outstanding resource for what the U.S. military currently believes will solve the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I could not find mention of actual COIN missions conducted by units specially trained in counterinsurgency. Probably the best example is Joint Special Operations Task Force - Philippines. The Big Army needs to get over its complex of trying to be just like Special Forces. Placing cooks into Jump School and stealing the beret are one thing, but claiming ownership over a mission as delicate as COIN is a potential recipe for disaster. Somewhere along the line the COIN lessons from Vietnam were lost.

February 6th Morning Readbook

2010-02-06T04:44:00.000-08:00

The family of Saleema Hussein, who was killed Friday by a bombing, carry her coffin for burial in the Shiite city of Najaf.(AP Photo/Alaa al-Marjani)

Iraq’s elections could be a turning point — backwards
Iraq’s elections next month are a major fork in the road of the country’s post-election development. One way leads towards increasing stability and political freedom; the other marks the route back to sectarianism and violence.

Law, tolerance needed to resolve Iraq's candidate ban row
Top Iraqi leaders are expected to meet on Saturday to discuss a row over an appeals panel's decision to allow some 500 barred candidates to run in the March 7 parliamentary election, which is seen as a crucial test for the war and violence-shattered country's national reconciliation and political process.

Deadly blasts hit Iraq Karbala city
At least 40 people have been killed and more than 140 others wounded in two explosions that rocked the Iraqi city of Karbala as hundreds of thousands of Shia pilgrims observed a major religious rite.

Iraq election triggers US-Iran power struggle
Preparations for the Iraqi parliamentary elections have been thrown into chaos by a row over whether or not to uphold a ban on hundreds of candidates, because of alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party.

Q&A - Iraq's Baath party furore - what's it all about?
Iraqi politics is in turmoil over a list of nearly 500 candidates barred from an election because of alleged links to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party. The furore at first pitted once dominant Sunnis against the Shi'ite-led majority. Sunnis, who dominated Iraq under Saddam and whose resentment at their fall from power helped fuel a powerful insurgency, suspected the ban unfairly targeted them.

Afghan police kill seven civilians 'by mistake'
Afghan police have shot dead seven villagers near the Pakistani border after mistaking them for insurgents, police officials said.

Taliban prepare defences against US and UK offensive
A wall of booby-trapped mines has been laid by the Taliban to protect their last strongholds in central Helmand as they prepare to hold off a major allied assault, British commanders have disclosed.

Pakistan tense as mourners bury bomb victims
Pakistan's commercial capital Karachi was tense Saturday a day after two bombs killed 31 people, raising further questions about the effectiveness of security crackdowns on al Qaeda-linked militants.

Yemeni American cleric Aulaqi confirms contact with Nigerian suspect
Yemeni American cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi said he taught and corresponded with the suspect in the attempted Dec. 25 airliner bombing but did not order the attack, according to an interview published this week.

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Al Qaeda Presence in Yemen is Not New

2010-02-05T19:14:00.000-08:00

Suspected al-Qaeda members sit behind bars at the state security court in Sanaa. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah

Yemen cautious on battle against al-Qaeda - 23 January 2002

FBI Director Robert Mueller was in Yemen on Monday as part of a Middle East tour designed to bolster Arab support and capability in the war against al-Qaeda and other militant groups.

The United States has begun to look beyond Afghanistan in the fight against al-Qaeda and much of the attention is being focused on countries like Yemen - a poor, mountainous nation on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula where militants have been able to hide.

The Yemeni Government says it has arrested two al-Qaeda militants named by the US, but that another three men on Washington's wanted list remain at large.

It has not been easy for Yemen to make arrests because the suspects enjoy the protection of powerful tribes who are armed and rarely take much notice of government orders.

Yemeni al-Qaeda terrorist on wanted list: report - November 25 2002

A senior al-Qaeda operative from Yemen is one of three "critical" suspects being hunted by authorities over the Bali bombing, Time magazine reported today.

In their latest edition, Time identified the Yemeni as Syafullah, whose activities included the 1996 bombing of a US military barracks in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 servicemen.

Time said one of the other two "top tier" suspects was an Indonesian militant named Syawal, who was an instructor at an al-Qaeda-linked training camp near Poso on the island of Sulawesi.

The other man police are hunting is a Malaysian, Zubair, who reportedly fought in Afghanistan in the late 1980s and is suspected of leading the surveillance and mapping team for the October 12 Bali attack.

If proved, Syafullah could be the first member of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation, which carried out last year's September 11 attacks on the United States, to be directly linked to the Bali bombings.

Al-Qaeda ties sought in Yemen killings - January 1 2003

Yemeni interrogators suspect the man accused of killing three American missionaries at a Baptist hospital may have ties to al-Qaeda, officials said Tuesday, and U.S. investigators joined the search for those behind the murders.

Two of the slain Americans were buried Tuesday in the southern Yemeni town of Jibla, where each had worked for more than two decades and where the attack took place. The third was to be flown to the United States.

CFR - Terrorism Havens: Yemen December 2005

Is Yemen a haven for terrorism?

Yes. Yemen, located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a poor Muslim country with a weak central government, armed tribal groups in outlying areas, and porous borders, which makes it fertile ground for terrorists. Its government has tried to help the United States after September 11, and the State Department calls Yemen “an important partner in the campaign against terrorism, providing assistance in the military, diplomatic, and financial arenas.” But experts say that terrorists live in Yemen, sometimes with government approval; Yemen-based corporations are thought to help fund Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network; and Yemenis affiliated with al-Qaeda have targeted U.S. interests in Yemen, including the October 2000 bombing of the navy destroyer U.S.S. Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden .

Since the bombing of the Cole, has al-Qaeda planned other attacks against targets in Yemen?

Yes. In June 2001, local authorities in Yemen arrested eight Yemeni veterans of the 1979-89 Afghan war against the Soviets in connection with a plot to blow up the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, Yemen ’s capital. In July 2002, an accidental explosion that killed two al-Qaeda operatives led to the seizure of 650 pounds of plastic explosives from a Sanaa warehouse. A Kuwaiti citizen suspected of ties to al-Qaeda was arrested in Kuwait and admitted to plotting the October 2002 bombing of a French oil tanker off the Yemeni coast. Three American missionaries were killed in December 2002 in a southern Yemeni village, but it is unclear if the alleged killer, a local Islamist militant, had any links to al-Qaeda.

How big an al-Qaeda presence is there in Yemen?

It’s impossible to say precisely, but dozens of al-Qaeda operatives, including senior officials, may be at large in Yeme , experts say. Yemen was second only to Saudi Arabia in being the source of soldiers for the international Islamist brigade that fought against Soviet forces in Afghanistan and that gave birth to al-Qaeda. Thousands—perhaps tens of thousands—of Yemenis fought in Afghanistan or trained in al-Qaeda’s camps there. Yemeni officials say that not every Yemeni veteran of the war in Afghanistan is an al-Qaeda member; nevertheless, Yemeni prisoners make up one of the largest national contingents of detainees at the U.S. prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba .

Al-Qaeda and Yemen - December 31, 2009

Al-Qaeda has used Yemen as a base to launch attacks against U.S. interests since the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. Some major events:

Oct. 12, 2000

USS Cole attack

Al-Qaeda militants ram the USS Cole with an explosives-packed speedboat off the southern city of Aden, killing 17 U.S. sailors.

Nov. 3, 2002

Al-Qaeda figure killed

Abu Ali al-Harithi, reputed head of the group al-Qaeda in Yemen, is killed in eastern Yemen by a missile fired at his car by a Predator drone. Harithi was a suspect in the attack on the USS Cole.

Early 2006

Jailbreak in Sanaa

Twenty-three people, at least 13 of them convicted al-Qaeda fighters, escape from a prison in Sanaa, Yemen's capital, through a 140-yard-long tunnel. Jamal Badawi, who had been convicted of plotting, preparing and helping to carry out the Cole bombing, was among the fugitives. U.S. and Yemeni officials said the prisoners were aided by Yemeni intelligence officials sympathetic to al-Qaeda.

Five Days in Iraq

2010-02-05T13:42:00.000-08:00

People gather at the site of a bombing in the holy city of Karbala, Iraq, Friday, Feb. 5, 2010. A twin car bombing targeted a crowd of Shiite pilgrims packing a highway as they walked to a holy city south of Baghdad for a major religious ceremony. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Daily violence has unarguably declined since its peak during sectarian civil war, but it would be a mistake to call this current period dominated by daily assassinations of security personnel and sectarian mass murdering a success.

February 1st

BAGHDAD - A female suicide bomber blew herself up among Shi'ite pilgrims on the outskirts of the Iraqi capital, killing at least 41 and wounding 106 others, security officials said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb in southern Baghdad wounded 12 Shi'ite pilgrims when it exploded, an Interior Ministry source said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb planted in a market wounded four people in the town of Hamdaniya, 40 km (30 miles) east of Mosul, police said. The town in an area disputed between Iraqi Kurds and Arabs has seen frequent attacks.

MOSUL - U.S. soldiers killed three suspected insurgents and wounded another who it says were planting roadside bombs near a major road on Saturday south of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

MOSUL - A civilian was wounded when gunmen attacked an Iraqi army checkpoint in western Mosul, police said.

February 2nd

MOSUL - Iraqi security forces backed by U.S. troops killed one suspected insurgent and arrested two others in a raid southeast of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

MOSUL - Gunmen shot dead one person inside his house in western Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen hurled a hand grenade at a police patrol, wounding three people including a policeman, in central Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a driver inside his car in western Mosul, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three Shi'ite pilgrims in the Zaafaraniya district of southeastern Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.

TAJI - A bomb attached to a car wounded a policeman in the town of Taji, 20 km (12 miles) north of Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.

GARMA - A roadside bomb injured five policemen in the town of Garma, 30 km (20 miles) northwest of Baghdad, police said.

February 3rd

KERBALA - A bomb on a cart killed at least 20 Shi'ite pilgrims and wounded 110 others in Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said.

KERBALA - A bomb attached to a military vehicle killed three people and wounded 21 others in eastern Kerbala on Tuesday night, police said.

KIRKUK - Gunmen shot and killed a police officer near his house in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb targeting Shi'ite pilgrims killed one pilgrim and wounded three others in Western Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded three people in the Amil district of southwest Baghdad, police said.

February 4th

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a man leaving a mosque in a drive-by shooting in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

February 5th

KERBALA - Two car bombs killed at least 40 people and wounded 145 others in Kerbala, 80 km (50 miles) southwest of Baghdad, health officials said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb struck a bus carrying pilgrims, killing one and wounding 13 others in eastern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A sniper wounded one pilgrim in Zayouna district of eastern Baghdad, a Baghdad security spokesman said.

MOSUL - Police found the body of a kidnapping victim riddled with bullets in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded one Iraqi soldier on foot patrol in western Mosul, police said.

MOSUL - Unknown gunmen killed two policemen in an attack on a checkpoint south of Mosul, police said.

February 5th Morning Readbook

2010-02-05T03:12:00.000-08:00

A man walks past a torn poster of Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki posing with the country's soccer team, on a street in Basra, 420 km (260 miles) southeast of Baghdad, February 5, 2010. REUTERS/Atef Hassan

Iraqi PM says he won't allow US to meddle in vote
Iraq's prime minister says he will not allow the U.S. ambassador to meddle in an effort to bar hundreds of candidates from running in March parliamentary elections because of suspected ties to Saddam Hussein's regime. Nouri al-Maliki says Ambassador Christopher Hill will not be allowed to overstep his position as a diplomat. His comments appeared to be in response to U.S. praise for a court decision Wednesday lifting the ban on more than 450 candidates.

Iraq Government says Decision to Reinstate Ba'ath Candidates 'Illegal'
The Iraqi government says the decision to allow candidates with ties to the Ba'ath Party to run in March elections is "illegal." Meanwhile, the head of Iraq's electoral commission says he is awaiting a decision on the matter from the country's top court.

Bombings hit Iraq Shia pilgrims in Karbala
Two suicide bombers have killed at least 10 people and injured 25 in the outskirts of Karbala in Iraq, reports from Iraqi police say.

New dangers in Pakistan Taliban leader's 'death'
The death of Pakistan's Taliban supremo in a US missile strike, if confirmed, would deal a major blow to the militant nexus but could magnify the dangers should Al-Qaeda exploit a leadership vacuum. US officials increasingly believe that Hakimullah Mehsud, who rose suddenly to the Taliban leadership after a US missile killed his predecessor Baitullah Mehsud six months ago, has succumbed to the same fate.

McChrystal Sees Signs of Progress In Push to Stabilize Afghanistan
Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan, said he no longer believes the battlefield situation there is deteriorating, the first time he has made such a determination since taking command in Kabul last summer.

Kunduz bombing highlights 'confusion of war'

India offers to revive talks with Pakistan
India offered on Thursday to resume high-level peace talks with Pakistan, an overture that reflected a significant warming between the nuclear-armed countries more than a year after the deadly siege in Mumbai.

Homegrown terrorism a growing concern for US intelligence
Homegrown terrorism is a growing threat, US intelligence chief Dennis Blair said this week. But the number of American Muslims engaged in extremist activity remain small and still largely focused overseas.

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February 4th Morning Readbook

2010-02-04T03:03:00.000-08:00

REUTERS

Iraqi court lifts mass ban on candidates, cutting risk of Sunni election boycott
An Iraqi appeals court on Wednesday overturned an effort to bar hundreds of candidates from Iraq's upcoming national elections, reducing the risk of a Sunni boycott that could render the entire process illegitimate.

Iraq bombing kills at least 20 as pilgrims converge on Karbala
At least 20 people were killed and 117 were wounded Wednesday in an explosion just outside the southern Iraqi city of Karbala, despite increased security measures put in place during religious ceremonies this week.

With fewer allies this time, Iraq's Maliki faces tough reelection campaign
Almost four years after his accidental rise to power, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is trying to retain his job without the allies who made him Iraq's ruler the first time around.

Obama's Iraq policy must be focused on more than withdrawal
In a 71-minute State of the Union address, President Obama managed no more than 101 perfunctory words about Iraq. Throughout its term, the administration has recoiled from discussing Iraq's geostrategic significance and especially America's relation to it.

Experts: Al Qaeda in Yemen may send American jihadis, recruited by Anwar al-Awlaki, to attack U.S.
Counterterror chiefs fear Al Qaeda in Yemen may soon be sending American jihadis recruited by a radical cleric to attack the U.S., the Daily News has learned.

NYC conviction doesn't silence Pakistani scientist
True to form, Aafia Siddiqui did not go quietly. Throughout a federal trial that featured compelling testimony about a perplexing case, the Pakistani scientist-turned-attempted murder defendant offered a running, combative commentary that sometimes got her kicked out of the courtroom.

Pakistan Arrests 35 in U.S. Soldiers’ Deaths
Pakistani officials said Thursday they have arrested 35 suspects as part of their investigation into a bombing that killed three American soldiers and four Pakistanis on Wednesday in northwest Pakistan.

Military Officials Say Afghan Fight Is Coming
NATO and the Afghan military are about to launch their biggest joint offensive of the war, and they appear to be making sure the Taliban know they are coming.

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Basics of COIN Part 6: Violence

2010-02-03T05:00:00.000-08:00

Afghan men attend a meeting, or shura, where local tribal elders convene with U.S. Marines on base Delaram in Nimroz province, southern Afghanistan January 9, 2010. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Violence is easily one of the worst indicators for determining COIN success or failure. Levels of violence will rise when host nation or foreign forces conduct security operations and will fall once those missions are complete. Conversely, insurgent-initiated violence will rise when they are taking over territory and will fall once that area is under their control. In other words, violence is an indicator of disputed territory, not an indicator of stability.

Areas that experienced a spike in violence that later subsided without either a host nation or foreign forces security operation or some sort of local political accommodation with the host nation government are likely under insurgent control. This is true for classic styled insurgencies and counterrevolutionaries. The primary difference between the two is that an insurgency will stand up an alternative government structure whereas counterrevolutionaries seek the expulsion of the new host nation government. This commonality gives us a practical means to measure COIN success.

Bernard Fall, arguably the greatest COIN theorist and practitioner of the 20th century, used a similar method during the Vietnam conflict. By plotting areas where village chiefs were murdered AND the government of Vietnam was not collecting taxes, Fall identified areas under Vietcong control. The methodology employed was explained in his paper, The Theory and Practice of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency.

When I returned to Viet-Nam in 1957, after the Indochina War had been over for two years, everybody was telling me that the situation was fine. However, I noticed in the South Vietnamese press obituaries of village chiefs, and I was bothered. I thought there were just too many obituaries--about one a day--allegedly killed not by communists, but by "unknown elements," and by "bandits." I decided to plot out a year's worth of dead village officials. The result was that I counted about 452 dead village chiefs to my knowledge at that time. Then I also saw in the press, and here and there in Viet-Nam heard, discussions about "bandit attacks." These attacks were not made at random, but in certain areas. That too worried me, so I decided to plot the attacks. I immediately noted in both cases a very strange pattern. The attacks on the village chiefs were "clustered" in certain areas.

I went to see the Vietnamese Minister of the Interior, Nguyen Huu Chau, who then was, incidentally, the brother-in-law of Madame Nhu [Diem's sister-in-law], and I said to him: "Your Excellency, there is something I'm worried about. You know that I was in the North when the French were losing and I noticed the village chiefs disappearing and I think you now have the same problem here." He said, "What do you mean?" So I just showed him the map. He said, "Well, since you found that out all by yourself, let me show you my map." And he pulled out a map which showed not only the village chiefs but also the communist cells operating in South Viet-Nam in 1957-58, when Viet-Nam was at peace and there was supposedly nothing going on. It was wonderful. We all congratulated each other. Yet, very obviously, to use a somewhat unscientific term, the whole Mekong Delta was going "to hell in a basket," and much of South Viet-Nam with it.1

The insurgency cross-check was unexpectedly provided to me by the International Control Commission. They get reports from the communists as well as from our side, but in this case what interested me was the alleged incidents inside South Viet-Nam. The communists would report from Hanoi, through the ICC, that Americans or Vietnamese were doing certain things out in the villages which Hanoi alleged were "violations" of the ceasefire agreement. I said to myself, "If I plot out all the communist reports about alleged violations on a map, and if they match high-incident areas, there may be a logical connection between the guerrilla operators and the intelligence operators who provide the basis for the ICC reports." Sure enough the same areas with the high incidents also had high reports. As of early 1958, I knew we were in deep trouble in Viet-Nam and I kept saying so.

In 1959 the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization gave me a research grant to do a study on communist infiltration in the area. . . . One of the results of the study: Saigon was deliberately encircled and cut off from the hinterland with a "wall" of dead village chiefs. President Kennedy, in his second State of the Union message on May 25, 1961, stated that during the past year (meaning April 1960-61) the communists killed 4,000 minor officials in Viet-Nam! This was one year before the [Maxwell] Taylor Report which got the whole American major effort going. In other words, in 1960 and 1961 the communists killed 11 village officials a day. By the time we woke up and learned that we had a problem, the communists had killed about 10,000 village chiefs in a country that has about 16,000 villages. This, gentlemen, is "control"--not the military illusion of it.

From then on, it was open and shut. One year later, in 1963, somebody discovered that my system of judging insurgent control from tax returns was applicable to South Viet-Nam also. . . . [The U.S. Agency for International Development, or AID, produced figures that] reflected the situation for March- May 1963, six months before Diem was overthrown, and four months before the Buddhist outbreaks. To make a long story short, in 27 provinces the communists . . . were formally collecting taxes with bonds, receipts, and tax declarations. In [ten more areas] they were collecting taxes on an informal basis. There were only three provinces out of forty-five which reported no communist tax collections!

In closing, determining if an area is under insurgent control is best accomplished by identifying territory where there is no host nation presence and any attempts for the host nation government to establish itself are met with violence and subversion.